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Game Recap
ANA0
VAN2
VAN beat ANA 2-0 despite fewer good chances: 2.04 expected goals to 3.42. J. DeBrusk had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 2.4. N. Tolopilo stopped 32 of 32.
Team Stats
ANAVAN
33Shots on goal26
3.42Expected goals2.04
64Shot attempts56
265v5 shots on goal19
0/3Power play0/3
21Hits10
13Blocked shots13
6Penalty minutes6
12Giveaways11
3Takeaways1
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
ANA 3.42 xGVAN 2.04 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
ANA Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Granlund | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 22:31 | 3:49 |
| B. Sennecke | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 21:00 | 4:12 |
| C. Gauthier | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 20:01 | 3:49 |
| A. Killorn | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 19:37 | 1:39 |
| R. Poehling | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 18:19 | 0:05 |
| C. Kreider | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 16:35 | 3:48 |
| J. Viel | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 13:25 | 0:00 |
| J. Harkins | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:35 | 0:57 |
| T. Washe | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 9:42 | 0:00 |
| S. Colangelo | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:29 | 0:37 |
| R. Johnston | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8:10 | 0:00 |
| J. Trouba | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -1 | 0 | 25:13 | 1:01 |
| J. LaCombe | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 25:07 | 3:52 |
| P. Mintyukov | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 20:26 | 0:55 |
| O. Zellweger | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16:26 | 0:00 |
| R. Gudas | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15:14 | 0:00 |
| D. Helleson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 14:13 | 0:00 |
| I. Moore | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:10 | 0:00 |
VAN Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. DeBrusk | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 16:27 | 3:20 |
| T. Blueger | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 15:01 | 0:01 |
| D. O'Connor | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 14:27 | 0:01 |
| C. Garland | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 19:50 | 2:25 |
| E. Pettersson | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 17:49 | 3:29 |
| E. Kane | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15:55 | 2:28 |
| D. Kampf | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 15:32 | 0:01 |
| L. Karlsson | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:18 | 3:32 |
| F. Chytil | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:59 | 2:29 |
| A. Räty | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 12:54 | 0:00 |
| J. Lekkerimäki | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:33 | 3:35 |
| L. Ohgren | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:38 | 2:27 |
| F. Hronek | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 27:00 | 3:37 |
| M. Pettersson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 23:59 | 0:04 |
| T. Myers | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 17:39 | 0:14 |
| E. Pettersson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 17:37 | 0:00 |
| T. Willander | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 15:32 | 2:17 |
| P. Joseph | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13:01 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N. Tolopilo | 32 | 32 | 0 | 1.000 | 57:49 | Win |
| K. Lankinen | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1.000 | 2:11 |
Lines at 5-on-5
ANA
Line 1R. Poehling15:49C. Gauthier15:14J. Viel13:25
Line 2M. Granlund13:57B. Sennecke15:14A. Killorn14:37
Line 3C. Kreider10:56J. Harkins10:38S. Colangelo8:52
Line 4R. Johnston8:10T. Washe7:10
Pair 1J. Trouba20:29J. LaCombe19:40
Pair 2P. Mintyukov15:49D. Helleson14:13
Pair 3R. Gudas12:54O. Zellweger12:33
VAN
Line 1E. Kane12:50E. Pettersson13:06C. Garland13:45
Line 2D. O'Connor14:26A. Räty12:15J. DeBrusk12:47
Line 3D. Kampf12:59F. Chytil12:30L. Karlsson11:33
Line 4T. Blueger10:30L. Ohgren7:36J. Lekkerimäki7:58
Pair 1F. Hronek19:23E. Pettersson16:59
Pair 2M. Pettersson18:17T. Willander13:07
From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | ANA 3.4, VAN 3.4 | ANA 0, VAN 2 |
| Total goals | 6.8 | 2 |
| Shots on goal | ANA 29.5, VAN 28.8 | ANA 33, VAN 26 |
| Win chance | VAN 50% | VAN won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA C. Gauthier | 3.2 | 4 | 0.85 | 0 | 28% | 0 |
| ANA B. Sennecke | 2.6 | 3 | 0.99 | 0 | 29% | 0 |
| VAN J. DeBrusk | 2.4 | 6 | 0.64 | 1 | 28% | 0 |
| VAN F. Chytil | 2.4 | 1 | 0.54 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| VAN E. Kane | 2.2 | 3 | 0.55 | 0 | 25% | 0 |
| ANA M. Granlund | 2.1 | 2 | 0.89 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| ANA J. Trouba | 1.9 | 2 | 0.37 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| ANA C. Kreider | 1.9 | 4 | 0.68 | 0 | 32% | 0 |
| ANA A. Killorn | 1.9 | 2 | 0.53 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| VAN C. Garland | 1.9 | 1 | 0.56 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| VAN E. Pettersson | 1.9 | 1 | 0.90 | 0 | 30% | 0 |
| VAN L. Karlsson | 1.9 | 2 | 0.63 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| ANA J. LaCombe | 1.8 | 2 | 0.64 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| VAN D. O'Connor | 1.6 | 1 | 0.43 | 1 | 19% | 1 |
| VAN L. Ohgren | 1.6 | 0 | 0.29 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| VAN F. Hronek | 1.6 | 2 | 0.66 | 1 | 10% | 0 |
| ANA O. Zellweger | 1.5 | 2 | 0.29 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| VAN T. Blueger | 1.4 | 2 | 0.41 | 1 | 13% | 1 |
| VAN T. Myers | 1.4 | 2 | 0.29 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| ANA R. Poehling | 1.3 | 3 | 0.51 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| ANA J. Viel | 1.2 | 3 | 0.22 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| VAN A. Räty | 1.2 | 0 | 0.37 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| VAN J. Lekkerimäki | 1.2 | 0 | 0.35 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| ANA P. Mintyukov | 1.2 | 0 | 0.39 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| VAN T. Willander | 1.1 | 0 | 0.47 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| VAN D. Kampf | 1.0 | 2 | 0.30 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| VAN M. Pettersson | 1.0 | 0 | 0.36 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| ANA R. Gudas | 1.0 | 0 | 0.22 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| ANA S. Colangelo | 1.0 | 2 | 0.30 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| ANA J. Harkins | 0.9 | 1 | 0.17 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| VAN P. Joseph | 0.9 | 2 | 0.19 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| ANA T. Washe | 0.8 | 1 | 0.20 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| ANA I. Moore | 0.8 | 1 | 0.20 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| VAN E. Pettersson | 0.7 | 1 | 0.21 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| ANA D. Helleson | 0.7 | 1 | 0.21 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| ANA R. Johnston | 0.5 | 0 | 0.20 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 22 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.