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Game Recap
ANA1
FinalSun, Oct 13, 2024Every game that night
VGK3

VGK beat ANA 3-1, and the chances backed it up: 4.75 expected goals to 2.65. VGK outshot ANA 32 to 23. K. Kolesar led the way with 2 points (0 G, 2 A). R. Strome had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.6. I. Samsonov stopped 22 of 23.

Scoring

1st2nd3rdT
ANA1001
VGK1023
  1. 1st 6:17VGKB. Howden0.08 xG
  2. 1st 11:49ANAT. Terry0.19 xG
  3. 3rd 5:18VGKT. HertlPP0.54 xG
  4. 3rd 14:09VGKP. Dorofeyev0.20 xG

Team Stats

ANAVGK
23Shots on goal32
2.65Expected goals4.75
62Shot attempts71
215v5 shots on goal24
0/1Power play1/4
23Hits16
15Blocked shots18
8Penalty minutes2
11Giveaways18
5Takeaways4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

ANA 2.65 xGVGK 4.75 xGGoal

0123451st2nd3rdVGK goal, 6:17ANA goal, 11:49VGK goal, 5:18VGK goal, 14:09

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

ANA23 on goal, 1 scored
VGK32 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

ANA Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
T. TerryRW1013010013:451:13
R. FabbriC000331-1018:020:00
M. McTavishC000001-1016:281:14
T. ZegrasC000200-1216:140:32
L. CarlssonC0001000014:561:20
I. LundestromC0000020014:330:00
B. LeasonRW0002110014:190:00
C. GauthierLW0002200014:181:17
F. VatranoRW0002210014:090:43
A. KillornLW0001000213:580:43
R. StromeC0005000213:480:44
B. McGinnLW0000510010:110:00
C. FowlerD000101-1022:490:14
P. MintyukovD000030+1021:150:45
B. DumoulinD0000320020:390:00
R. GudasD0001420020:130:00
T. LuneauD000001-2019:331:15
U. VaakanainenD0000010213:470:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
J. Reimer32293.90660:00Loss
L. Dostal000–0:00

VGK Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
K. KolesarRW022020+2011:340:00
J. EichelC011100-1022:396:27
M. StoneRW011311-1020:156:03
T. HertlC101231+1018:566:26
B. HowdenC101420+1014:100:00
P. DorofeyevRW101502+1012:520:07
V. OlofssonLW0003110017:014:17
N. RoyC000020+1015:520:50
I. BarbashevLW000210-1015:300:38
A. HoltzRW0001000013:370:46
T. PearsonLW0000100010:320:00
C. SchwindtRW000112009:240:00
A. PietrangeloD011402+1021:572:36
S. TheodoreD0002020023:105:58
N. HanifinD0000020020:491:07
Z. WhitecloudD0002010017:250:00
N. HagueD0000110016:460:00
B. McNabbD000213+1215:310:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
I. Samsonov23221.95760:00Win
A. Hill000–0:00

How We Did

We projectedIt finished
ScoreANA 2.3, VGK 3.8ANA 1, VGK 3
Total goals6.14
Shots on goalANA 24.8, VGK 33.2ANA 23, VGK 32
Win chanceVGK 73%VGK won

Players

PlayerSOG projectedSOGPoints projectedPointsGoal chanceGoals
VGK J. Eichel4.611.33139%0
ANA F. Vatrano3.120.57026%0
VGK S. Theodore2.620.89014%0
VGK M. Stone2.431.10132%0
VGK T. Hertl2.420.79128%1
VGK A. Pietrangelo2.340.64112%0
VGK N. Hanifin2.300.67014%0
ANA A. Killorn2.210.58023%0
ANA T. Terry2.230.63124%1
ANA T. Zegras2.220.59020%0
VGK P. Dorofeyev2.150.55124%1
ANA L. Carlsson2.010.44017%0
VGK A. Holtz1.710.41019%0
VGK I. Barbashev1.720.75024%0
ANA M. McTavish1.700.44017%0
VGK N. Hague1.600.2406%0
ANA R. Strome1.650.44014%0
ANA T. Luneau1.600.2705%0
VGK V. Olofsson1.630.46022%0
VGK T. Pearson1.600.37014%0
VGK N. Roy1.500.56018%0
ANA P. Mintyukov1.500.4005%0
ANA R. Fabbri1.530.39018%0
VGK B. McNabb1.420.3906%0
VGK B. Howden1.440.41117%1
ANA C. Fowler1.310.4306%0
ANA R. Gudas1.310.2204%0
ANA B. Leason1.220.25012%0
VGK K. Kolesar1.100.29212%0
VGK Z. Whitecloud1.020.2909%0
ANA B. McGinn1.000.18010%0
ANA I. Lundestrom1.000.25012%0
ANA U. Vaakanainen1.000.1702%0
ANA B. Dumoulin1.000.2003%0
VGK C. Schwindt0.910.23010%0

Shots on goal: 18 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.