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Game Recap
ANA5
WPG1
ANA beat WPG 5-1, and the chances backed it up: 3.58 expected goals to 2.24. J. Caulfield led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). D. Samberg had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 1.4. L. Dostal stopped 15 of 16.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA | 1 | 1 | 3 | 5 |
| WPG | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
- 1st 14:41ANAJ. Caulfield0.50 xG
- 2nd 5:20ANAT. Washe0.20 xG
- 3rd 4:25ANAS. Colangelo0.32 xG
- 3rd 10:36WPGK. Connor0.18 xG
- 3rd 14:06ANAM. Granlund0.02 xG
- 3rd 19:19ANAN. NesterenkoEN0.92 xG
Team Stats
ANAWPG
17Shots on goal16
3.58Expected goals2.24
37Shot attempts53
155v5 shots on goal13
0/1Power play0/4
25Hits14
20Blocked shots9
13Penalty minutes7
16Giveaways24
2Takeaways9
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
ANA 3.58 xGWPG 2.24 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
ANA Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B. Sennecke | RW | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1 | +3 | 2 | 17:03 | 1:49 |
| M. Granlund | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 16:31 | 1:51 |
| T. Washe | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 2 | +2 | 0 | 15:14 | 0:09 |
| J. Caulfield | RW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 9:34 | 0:09 |
| J. Malott | LW | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 9:26 | 0:07 |
| N. Nesterenko | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 11:58 | 0:00 |
| S. Colangelo | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 10:35 | 0:00 |
| A. Killorn | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 18:42 | 0:00 |
| C. Gauthier | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 18:20 | 1:51 |
| R. Poehling | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 4 | 17:20 | 0:00 |
| L. Carlsson | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 16:25 | 1:53 |
| A. Greer | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 12:33 | 0:00 |
| J. LaCombe | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +3 | 0 | 27:02 | 1:57 |
| N. Warren | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | +2 | 0 | 24:12 | 0:00 |
| P. Mintyukov | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 21:24 | 0:11 |
| T. Mitchell | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 17:31 | 0:03 |
| T. Luneau | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 14:22 | 0:00 |
| T. Hinds | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 13:48 | 0:00 |
WPG Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K. Connor | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 23:56 | 5:43 |
| M. Scheifele | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 22:18 | 5:37 |
| C. Perfetti | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 22:20 | 5:39 |
| G. Vilardi | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 18:36 | 5:38 |
| V. Björck | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:33 | 1:51 |
| I. Rosen | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:56 | 2:21 |
| A. Iafallo | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:43 | 2:19 |
| M. Barron | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14:12 | 0:00 |
| A. Lowry | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 13:28 | 0:29 |
| V. Namestnikov | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -3 | 0 | 11:15 | 1:52 |
| B. Lambert | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -3 | 2 | 8:27 | 0:00 |
| C. Koepke | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -3 | 0 | 7:32 | 0:00 |
| D. DeMelo | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 21:40 | 0:07 |
| N. Pionk | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -3 | 0 | 25:02 | 5:59 |
| D. Samberg | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 22:06 | 0:29 |
| M. Ferraro | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -2 | 0 | 19:58 | 0:00 |
| H. Fleury | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 15:26 | 1:56 |
| T. Bauer | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 8:24 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C. Stevenson | 16 | 12 | 4 | .750 | 56:08 | Loss |
| S. Skinner | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Lines at 5-on-5
ANA
Line 1L. Carlsson14:16B. Sennecke14:58S. Colangelo10:35
Line 2A. Killorn13:01R. Poehling13:18A. Greer12:27
Line 3N. Nesterenko10:13C. Gauthier13:29M. Granlund9:16
Line 4J. Caulfield8:34J. Malott8:40T. Washe9:31
Pair 1J. LaCombe18:39N. Warren17:52
Pair 2P. Mintyukov15:40T. Mitchell13:08
WPG
Line 1M. Scheifele15:06K. Connor16:23C. Perfetti14:46
Line 2V. Björck13:12G. Vilardi11:22M. Barron13:42
Line 3A. Iafallo10:45I. Rosen10:33A. Lowry10:40
Line 4C. Koepke7:20B. Lambert8:27V. Namestnikov6:03
Pair 1D. DeMelo19:11D. Samberg18:13
Pair 2M. Ferraro19:08N. Pionk15:54
From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.
Prop Results
2 of 12 overs hit (17%).
| Player | Line | Over | Under | SOG | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA C. Gauthier | 3.5 | -120 | -104 | 1 | Under |
| WPG K. Connor | 3.5 | +100 | -125 | 3 | Under |
| ANA B. Sennecke | 2.5 | -125 | -104 | 0 | Under |
| WPG C. Perfetti | 2.5 | +115 | -110 | 0 | Under |
| ANA L. Carlsson | 2.5 | +105 | -135 | 1 | Under |
| WPG M. Scheifele | 2.5 | +154 | -150 | 1 | Under |
| WPG A. Iafallo | 1.5 | +115 | -150 | 0 | Under |
| ANA A. Killorn | 1.5 | -125 | +100 | 1 | Under |
| WPG G. Vilardi | 1.5 | -125 | +100 | 2 | Over |
| ANA J. LaCombe | 1.5 | -145 | +115 | 1 | Under |
| ANA M. Granlund | 1.5 | -120 | +105 | 2 | Over |
| WPG N. Pionk | 1.5 | -180 | +135 | 0 | Under |
5 of 34 overs hit (15%).
| Player | Line | Over | Under | G | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA A. Greer | 0.5 | +500 | -800 | 0 | Under |
| WPG A. Iafallo | 0.5 | +475 | -700 | 0 | Under |
| ANA A. Killorn | 0.5 | +340 | -450 | 0 | Under |
| WPG A. Lowry | 0.5 | +550 | -800 | 0 | Under |
| WPG B. Lambert | 0.5 | +700 | -1400 | 0 | Under |
| ANA B. Sennecke | 0.5 | +195 | -270 | 0 | Under |
| ANA C. Gauthier | 0.5 | +130 | -165 | 0 | Under |
| WPG C. Koepke | 0.5 | +750 | -1400 | 0 | Under |
| WPG C. Perfetti | 0.5 | +230 | -285 | 0 | Under |
| WPG D. DeMelo | 0.5 | +1500 | -2500 | 0 | Under |
| WPG D. Samberg | 0.5 | +1600 | -2800 | 0 | Under |
| WPG G. Vilardi | 0.5 | +230 | -285 | 0 | Under |
| WPG H. Fleury | 0.5 | +1400 | -5000 | 0 | Under |
| WPG I. Rosen | 0.5 | +500 | -900 | 0 | Under |
| ANA J. Caulfield | 0.5 | +1200 | -2500 | 1 | Over |
| ANA J. LaCombe | 0.5 | +500 | -900 | 0 | Under |
| ANA J. Malott | 0.5 | +1000 | -1400 | 0 | Under |
| WPG K. Connor | 0.5 | +120 | -150 | 1 | Over |
| ANA L. Carlsson | 0.5 | +180 | -250 | 0 | Under |
| WPG M. Barron | 0.5 | +675 | -800 | 0 | Under |
| WPG M. Ferraro | 0.5 | +1300 | -2000 | 0 | Under |
| ANA M. Granlund | 0.5 | +290 | -390 | 1 | Over |
| WPG M. Scheifele | 0.5 | +190 | -240 | 0 | Under |
| ANA N. Nesterenko | 0.5 | +750 | -1000 | 1 | Over |
| WPG N. Pionk | 0.5 | +470 | -900 | 0 | Under |
| ANA N. Warren | 0.5 | +2000 | -2800 | 0 | Under |
| ANA P. Mintyukov | 0.5 | +1100 | -2500 | 0 | Under |
| ANA R. Poehling | 0.5 | +550 | -650 | 0 | Under |
| WPG T. Bauer | 0.5 | +2000 | -2800 | 0 | Under |
| ANA T. Hinds | 0.5 | +2200 | -4000 | 0 | Under |
| ANA T. Luneau | 0.5 | +1000 | -2800 | 0 | Under |
| ANA T. Mitchell | 0.5 | +1700 | -2800 | 0 | Under |
| ANA T. Washe | 0.5 | +1100 | -1600 | 1 | Over |
| WPG V. Namestnikov | 0.5 | +550 | -800 | 0 | Under |
5 of 24 overs hit (21%).
| Player | Line | Over | Under | A | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA A. Greer | 0.5 | +300 | -425 | 0 | Under |
| WPG A. Iafallo | 0.5 | +475 | -750 | 0 | Under |
| ANA A. Killorn | 0.5 | +285 | -400 | 0 | Under |
| WPG A. Lowry | 0.5 | +360 | -525 | 0 | Under |
| ANA B. Sennecke | 0.5 | +150 | -185 | 2 | Over |
| ANA C. Gauthier | 0.5 | +170 | -210 | 0 | Under |
| WPG C. Perfetti | 0.5 | +165 | -210 | 0 | Under |
| WPG D. DeMelo | 0.5 | +340 | -500 | 1 | Over |
| WPG D. Samberg | 0.5 | +215 | -240 | 0 | Under |
| WPG G. Vilardi | 0.5 | +175 | -205 | 0 | Under |
| WPG I. Rosen | 0.5 | +475 | -750 | 0 | Under |
| ANA J. LaCombe | 0.5 | +100 | -120 | 1 | Over |
| WPG K. Connor | 0.5 | +100 | -130 | 0 | Under |
| ANA L. Carlsson | 0.5 | +125 | -155 | 0 | Under |
| WPG M. Barron | 0.5 | +340 | -500 | 0 | Under |
| WPG M. Ferraro | 0.5 | +500 | -800 | 0 | Under |
| ANA M. Granlund | 0.5 | +154 | -160 | 1 | Over |
| WPG M. Scheifele | 0.5 | -120 | -105 | 1 | Over |
| ANA N. Nesterenko | 0.5 | +500 | -800 | 0 | Under |
| WPG N. Pionk | 0.5 | +120 | -140 | 0 | Under |
| ANA P. Mintyukov | 0.5 | +235 | -340 | 0 | Under |
| ANA R. Poehling | 0.5 | +330 | -375 | 0 | Under |
| ANA T. Luneau | 0.5 | +215 | -295 | 0 | Under |
| ANA T. Mitchell | 0.5 | +450 | -700 | 0 | Under |
6 of 24 overs hit (25%).
| Player | Line | Over | Under | P | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG K. Connor | 1.5 | +160 | -200 | 1 | Under |
| ANA A. Greer | 0.5 | +180 | -230 | 0 | Under |
| WPG A. Iafallo | 0.5 | +230 | -330 | 0 | Under |
| ANA A. Killorn | 0.5 | +145 | -180 | 0 | Under |
| WPG A. Lowry | 0.5 | +215 | -300 | 0 | Under |
| ANA B. Sennecke | 0.5 | -150 | +120 | 2 | Over |
| ANA C. Gauthier | 0.5 | -160 | +135 | 0 | Under |
| WPG C. Perfetti | 0.5 | -130 | +110 | 0 | Under |
| WPG D. DeMelo | 0.5 | +265 | -370 | 1 | Over |
| WPG D. Samberg | 0.5 | +180 | -205 | 0 | Under |
| WPG G. Vilardi | 0.5 | -140 | +125 | 0 | Under |
| WPG I. Rosen | 0.5 | +230 | -330 | 0 | Under |
| ANA J. LaCombe | 0.5 | -132 | +110 | 1 | Over |
| ANA L. Carlsson | 0.5 | -165 | +140 | 0 | Under |
| WPG M. Barron | 0.5 | +210 | -285 | 0 | Under |
| WPG M. Ferraro | 0.5 | +360 | -525 | 0 | Under |
| ANA M. Granlund | 0.5 | -122 | +115 | 2 | Over |
| WPG M. Scheifele | 0.5 | -235 | +200 | 1 | Over |
| ANA N. Nesterenko | 0.5 | +290 | -425 | 1 | Over |
| WPG N. Pionk | 0.5 | -110 | -110 | 0 | Under |
| ANA P. Mintyukov | 0.5 | +184 | -250 | 0 | Under |
| ANA R. Poehling | 0.5 | +190 | -210 | 0 | Under |
| ANA T. Luneau | 0.5 | +167 | -200 | 0 | Under |
| ANA T. Mitchell | 0.5 | +320 | -475 | 0 | Under |
0 of 14 overs hit (0%).
| Player | Line | Over | Under | PPP | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA B. Sennecke | 0.5 | +200 | -285 | 0 | Under |
| ANA C. Gauthier | 0.5 | +160 | -240 | 0 | Under |
| WPG C. Perfetti | 0.5 | +220 | -375 | 0 | Under |
| WPG G. Vilardi | 0.5 | +220 | -375 | 0 | Under |
| WPG I. Rosen | 0.5 | +500 | -1600 | 0 | Under |
| ANA J. LaCombe | 0.5 | +185 | -280 | 0 | Under |
| WPG K. Connor | 0.5 | +140 | -200 | 0 | Under |
| ANA L. Carlsson | 0.5 | +185 | -280 | 0 | Under |
| ANA M. Granlund | 0.5 | +190 | -290 | 0 | Under |
| WPG M. Scheifele | 0.5 | +150 | -225 | 0 | Under |
| WPG N. Pionk | 0.5 | +180 | -275 | 0 | Under |
| ANA P. Mintyukov | 0.5 | +500 | -1600 | 0 | Under |
| ANA T. Luneau | 0.5 | +500 | -1600 | 0 | Under |
| WPG V. Namestnikov | 0.5 | +500 | -1600 | 0 | Under |
0 of 3 overs hit (0%).
| Player | Line | Over | Under | BLK | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG D. Samberg | 1.5 | -135 | -105 | 1 | Under |
| ANA J. LaCombe | 1.5 | -135 | -105 | 0 | Under |
| WPG N. Pionk | 1.5 | -105 | -135 | 1 | Under |
Each player's main line (the one most books posted) at the last price before puck drop, the best price on each side there, and what he did.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | ANA 3.1, WPG 3.2 | ANA 5, WPG 1 |
| Total goals | 6.3 | 6 |
| Shots on goal | ANA 29.6, WPG 26.7 | ANA 17, WPG 16 |
| Win chance | WPG 51% | ANA won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA C. Gauthier | 3.6 | 1 | 0.89 | 0 | 33% | 0 |
| WPG K. Connor | 3.4 | 3 | 1.29 | 1 | 41% | 1 |
| ANA B. Sennecke | 2.8 | 0 | 0.80 | 2 | 27% | 0 |
| ANA L. Carlsson | 2.6 | 1 | 0.86 | 0 | 27% | 0 |
| WPG C. Perfetti | 2.3 | 0 | 0.73 | 0 | 25% | 0 |
| WPG M. Scheifele | 2.2 | 1 | 1.30 | 1 | 38% | 0 |
| ANA J. LaCombe | 2.0 | 1 | 0.79 | 1 | 13% | 0 |
| ANA M. Granlund | 1.9 | 2 | 0.80 | 2 | 22% | 1 |
| WPG N. Pionk | 1.8 | 0 | 0.48 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| WPG G. Vilardi | 1.7 | 2 | 0.84 | 0 | 30% | 0 |
| WPG M. Barron | 1.7 | 1 | 0.43 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| ANA A. Killorn | 1.6 | 1 | 0.43 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| WPG A. Iafallo | 1.4 | 0 | 0.42 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| WPG C. Koepke | 1.4 | 0 | 0.30 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| WPG D. Samberg | 1.4 | 4 | 0.31 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| ANA A. Greer | 1.3 | 2 | 0.35 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| ANA T. Luneau | 1.3 | 0 | 0.32 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| WPG M. Ferraro | 1.2 | 1 | 0.32 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| WPG A. Lowry | 1.2 | 0 | 0.43 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| WPG V. Namestnikov | 1.1 | 0 | 0.37 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| ANA P. Mintyukov | 1.1 | 0 | 0.27 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| ANA R. Poehling | 1.1 | 1 | 0.38 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| ANA N. Nesterenko | 1.1 | 2 | 0.26 | 1 | 10% | 1 |
| WPG B. Lambert | 1.1 | 0 | 0.29 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| WPG I. Rosen | 1.0 | 3 | 0.26 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| WPG D. DeMelo | 1.0 | 0 | 0.31 | 1 | 6% | 0 |
| ANA S. Colangelo | 1.0 | 1 | 0.26 | 1 | 15% | 1 |
| ANA T. Washe | 0.9 | 1 | 0.20 | 2 | 9% | 1 |
| ANA T. Hinds | 0.8 | 0 | 0.10 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| ANA J. Malott | 0.8 | 1 | 0.14 | 2 | 6% | 0 |
| WPG H. Fleury | 0.8 | 1 | 0.16 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| ANA T. Mitchell | 0.7 | 0 | 0.14 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 16 of 32 players within one of their projection; they took 0.6 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.