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Game Recap
ANA0
WSH3
WSH beat ANA 3-0, and the chances backed it up: 3.33 expected goals to 1.73. B. Duhaime led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). L. Thompson stopped 19 of 19.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| WSH | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
- 1st 7:34WSHB. Duhaime0.45 xG
- 1st 14:30WSHJ. Carlson0.16 xG
- 2nd 19:01WSHE. Frank0.11 xG
Team Stats
ANAWSH
19Shots on goal25
1.73Expected goals3.33
48Shot attempts65
195v5 shots on goal24
0/1Power play0/2
28Hits6
15Blocked shots14
4Penalty minutes2
13Giveaways12
2Takeaways5
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
ANA 1.73 xGWSH 3.33 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
ANA Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T. Terry | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 18:49 | 1:12 |
| F. Vatrano | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 17:16 | 1:06 |
| A. Killorn | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 16:45 | 0:55 |
| R. Strome | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 16:35 | 1:05 |
| L. Carlsson | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 16:00 | 1:05 |
| M. McTavish | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 14:09 | 0:54 |
| R. Fabbri | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 13:44 | 0:55 |
| C. Gauthier | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 13:17 | 0:48 |
| S. Colangelo | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 13:15 | 0:00 |
| I. Lundestrom | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13:13 | 0:00 |
| J. Harkins | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:02 | 0:00 |
| B. Leason | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 11:54 | 0:00 |
| J. LaCombe | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 24:18 | 1:07 |
| R. Gudas | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -1 | 0 | 22:09 | 0:00 |
| J. Trouba | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 19:12 | 0:00 |
| P. Mintyukov | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 18:06 | 0:53 |
| B. Dumoulin | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 17:55 | 0:00 |
| D. Helleson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 0 | 16:21 | 0:00 |
WSH Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B. Duhaime | LW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 13:21 | 0:00 |
| P. Dubois | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 16:26 | 1:44 |
| N. Dowd | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 15:57 | 0:00 |
| E. Frank | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 12:20 | 0:00 |
| A. Ovechkin | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 18:17 | 3:53 |
| A. Protas | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 17:30 | 0:00 |
| C. McMichael | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:09 | 2:00 |
| T. Wilson | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:21 | 2:00 |
| D. Strome | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 15:14 | 2:14 |
| A. Mangiapane | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:08 | 1:28 |
| T. Raddysh | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13:03 | 0:00 |
| L. Eller | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12:42 | 0:00 |
| J. Chychrun | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 22:14 | 2:32 |
| J. Carlson | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 21:59 | 2:14 |
| R. Sandin | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 21:16 | 1:48 |
| M. Roy | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 19:30 | 0:07 |
| M. Fehérváry | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16:51 | 0:00 |
| T. van Riemsdyk | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 16:42 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| L. Thompson | 19 | 19 | 0 | 1.000 | 60:00 | Win |
| H. Shepard | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | ANA 2.6, WSH 3.4 | ANA 0, WSH 3 |
| Total goals | 6.0 | 3 |
| Shots on goal | ANA 26.7, WSH 29.9 | ANA 19, WSH 25 |
| Win chance | WSH 63% | WSH won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH A. Ovechkin | 3.1 | 3 | 0.93 | 0 | 38% | 0 |
| ANA F. Vatrano | 2.8 | 3 | 0.56 | 0 | 26% | 0 |
| WSH J. Chychrun | 2.6 | 3 | 0.62 | 1 | 18% | 0 |
| WSH T. Wilson | 2.5 | 1 | 0.78 | 0 | 32% | 0 |
| WSH J. Carlson | 2.4 | 2 | 0.68 | 1 | 14% | 1 |
| ANA T. Terry | 2.3 | 1 | 0.74 | 0 | 27% | 0 |
| WSH A. Protas | 2.1 | 1 | 0.75 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| WSH C. McMichael | 2.0 | 1 | 0.57 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| WSH P. Dubois | 1.9 | 1 | 0.78 | 1 | 25% | 0 |
| WSH D. Strome | 1.9 | 2 | 0.95 | 0 | 28% | 0 |
| ANA C. Gauthier | 1.8 | 1 | 0.43 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| ANA M. McTavish | 1.8 | 1 | 0.49 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| ANA A. Killorn | 1.7 | 1 | 0.52 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| ANA J. Trouba | 1.7 | 0 | 0.26 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| ANA R. Fabbri | 1.6 | 0 | 0.46 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| ANA R. Strome | 1.6 | 1 | 0.50 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| WSH M. Roy | 1.6 | 0 | 0.35 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| ANA J. LaCombe | 1.5 | 2 | 0.37 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| ANA S. Colangelo | 1.5 | 0 | 0.21 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| ANA L. Carlsson | 1.4 | 1 | 0.41 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| ANA B. Leason | 1.4 | 0 | 0.30 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| WSH B. Duhaime | 1.3 | 2 | 0.26 | 2 | 12% | 1 |
| WSH A. Mangiapane | 1.3 | 1 | 0.46 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| WSH L. Eller | 1.3 | 0 | 0.32 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| WSH N. Dowd | 1.2 | 0 | 0.42 | 1 | 20% | 0 |
| WSH T. Riemsdyk | 1.2 | 1 | 0.26 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| ANA R. Gudas | 1.2 | 2 | 0.22 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| WSH R. Sandin | 1.1 | 1 | 0.41 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| WSH T. Raddysh | 1.1 | 2 | 0.30 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| ANA P. Mintyukov | 1.1 | 0 | 0.26 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| WSH M. Fehérváry | 1.1 | 2 | 0.29 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| ANA B. Dumoulin | 1.0 | 1 | 0.22 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| ANA J. Harkins | 0.9 | 2 | 0.17 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| ANA D. Helleson | 0.9 | 2 | 0.20 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| ANA I. Lundestrom | 0.8 | 1 | 0.22 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 22 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.4 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.