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Game Recap
BOS4
FinalFri, Oct 16, 2026Every game that night
ANA2

BOS beat ANA 4-2, with the chances close: 3.72 expected goals to 3.42. D. Pastrnak led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). M. DiPietro stopped 25 of 27.

Scoring

1st2nd3rdT
BOS0134
ANA2002
  1. 1st 19:22ANAT. Washe0.02 xG
  2. 1st 19:43ANAB. Sennecke0.07 xG
  3. 2nd 3:15BOSF. BrunetPP0.04 xG
  4. 3rd 3:26BOSD. PastrnakPP0.09 xG
  5. 3rd 8:18BOSE. LindholmPP0.60 xG
  6. 3rd 16:20BOSM. Poitras0.19 xG

Team Stats

BOSANA
22Shots on goal27
3.72Expected goals3.42
44Shot attempts72
195v5 shots on goal24
3/4Power play0/5
11Hits23
18Blocked shots7
12Penalty minutes8
18Giveaways12
2Takeaways2

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

BOS 3.72 xGANA 3.42 xGGoal

00.511.522.533.541st2nd3rdANA goal, 19:22ANA goal, 19:43BOS goal, 3:15BOS goal, 3:26BOS goal, 8:18BOS goal, 16:20

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

BOS22 on goal, 4 scored
ANA28 on goal, 2 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

BOS Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
D. PastrnakRW1124010020:354:36
E. LindholmC1121000018:303:12
P. ZachaC0221000017:042:42
J. HagensC022202+1010:030:42
M. GeekieC0111010219:594:04
M. PoitrasC101200009:180:00
F. MintenC000210-1017:050:52
M. KhusnutdinovC000221-1014:350:00
J. PeterkaRW000201-1214:140:48
T. JeannotLW000001-1011:250:00
C. MittelstadtC000102+1010:250:15
M. KastelicC000020-108:590:00
F. BrunetD1012030013:581:44
C. McAvoyD000202-1026:543:07
H. LindholmD000003+1025:511:14
W. BorgenD000001-1218:020:00
N. ZadorovD000060-1617:420:04
M. LohreiD0000000015:210:55
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
M. DiPietro27252.92660:00Win
J. Swayman000–0:00

ANA Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
B. SenneckeRW101100+1023:126:38
C. GauthierLW011410+1021:206:23
T. WasheC101121+1012:340:00
N. NesterenkoC011220+1012:100:00
L. CarlssonC0001110020:236:07
N. KlepovRW000010-1217:254:18
A. KillornLW000240-1016:063:12
R. McQueenC000500-1415:142:48
J. CaulfieldRW0000100013:025:07
F. VatranoRW0001100013:002:54
A. GreerLW000230+1010:550:00
J. MalottLW000210+109:340:00
J. LaCombeD011112+2026:266:44
T. LuneauD0111000018:172:37
D. HellesonD0002210020:120:00
P. MintyukovD000001-1016:050:02
N. WarrenD000121+1014:450:00
T. HindsD0001100214:300:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
L. Dostal22184.81859:21Loss
V. Husso000–0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

BOS

Line 1M. Geekie15:51D. Pastrnak15:55P. Zacha13:05
Line 2J. Peterka12:32F. Minten11:36M. Khusnutdinov10:30
Line 3C. Mittelstadt10:02J. Hagens9:21E. Lindholm10:50
Line 4M. Poitras8:59M. Kastelic7:18T. Jeannot7:11
Pair 1H. Lindholm17:36C. McAvoy17:27
Pair 2N. Zadorov15:57W. Borgen14:45
Pair 3M. Lohrei12:07F. Brunet11:28

ANA

Line 1B. Sennecke14:30C. Gauthier12:03N. Nesterenko10:10
Line 2A. Killorn11:49N. Klepov12:48L. Carlsson12:35
Line 3R. McQueen12:14F. Vatrano10:05J. Caulfield7:49
Line 4A. Greer10:49T. Washe9:28J. Malott9:34
Pair 1P. Mintyukov14:13T. Luneau15:40
Pair 2J. LaCombe17:05N. Warren12:28
Pair 3D. Helleson16:20T. Hinds12:50

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Prop Results

8 of 18 overs hit (44%).

PlayerLineOverUnderSOGResult
ANA C. Gauthier3.5-110-1054Over
BOS D. Pastrnak3.5+115-1354Over
ANA B. Sennecke2.5-140+1101Under
ANA L. Carlsson2.5+108-1251Under
ANA A. Killorn1.5-150+1252Over
BOS C. McAvoy1.5-120+1002Over
BOS E. Lindholm1.5-114-1051Under
BOS F. Minten1.5-125-1022Over
BOS H. Lindholm1.5+125-1550Under
ANA J. Caulfield1.5-120+1000Under
BOS J. Hagens1.5-115-1052Over
ANA J. LaCombe1.5-125+1001Under
BOS J. Peterka1.5-146+1152Over
BOS M. Geekie1.5-160+1301Under
ANA N. Klepov1.5+120-1550Under
BOS N. Zadorov1.5+120-1450Under
BOS P. Zacha1.5-115-1151Under
ANA R. McQueen1.5-105-1255Over

Each player's main line (the one most books posted) at the last price before puck drop, the best price on each side there, and what he did.

How We Did

We projectedIt finished
ScoreBOS 3.0, ANA 3.2BOS 4, ANA 2
Total goals6.36
Shots on goalBOS 25.0, ANA 31.9BOS 22, ANA 27
Win chanceANA 53%BOS won

Players

PlayerSOG projectedSOGPoints projectedPointsGoal chanceGoals
BOS D. Pastrnak3.241.23238%1
ANA C. Gauthier3.040.70127%0
ANA L. Carlsson2.810.87029%0
ANA B. Sennecke2.610.74126%1
ANA A. Killorn2.020.48022%0
BOS M. Geekie1.910.80131%0
ANA J. LaCombe1.810.75114%0
BOS C. McAvoy1.820.75014%0
BOS J. Peterka1.820.62024%0
BOS P. Zacha1.710.76225%0
BOS F. Minten1.620.50021%0
ANA F. Vatrano1.610.31015%0
ANA N. Nesterenko1.520.32113%0
BOS E. Lindholm1.510.59221%1
ANA A. Greer1.520.34014%0
BOS J. Hagens1.420.43215%0
BOS H. Lindholm1.300.4208%0
BOS N. Zadorov1.300.3107%0
ANA J. Caulfield1.300.34012%0
BOS F. Brunet1.320.2716%1
ANA T. Luneau1.210.2918%0
ANA N. Warren1.110.3206%0
BOS C. Mittelstadt1.110.52017%0
ANA P. Mintyukov1.100.2707%0
BOS M. Kastelic1.100.29012%0
BOS M. Poitras1.020.37112%1
ANA T. Washe1.010.26113%1
BOS M. Lohrei1.000.3708%0
ANA J. Malott1.020.1706%0
BOS W. Borgen0.900.2707%0
ANA T. Hinds0.910.1003%0
BOS M. Khusnutdinov0.920.37015%0
BOS T. Jeannot0.900.25011%0
ANA D. Helleson0.620.1603%0

Shots on goal: 23 of 34 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.