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Game Recap
BOS5
OTT6
OTT beat BOS 6-5 in a shootout, and the chances backed it up: 4.33 expected goals to 2.63. OTT outshot BOS 44 to 28. D. Pastrnak led the way with 3 points (1 G, 2 A). S. Pinto had 8 shots on goal against our projection of 2.2. L. Meriläinen stopped 23 of 28.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | SO | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 |
| OTT | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 6 |
- 1st 1:47OTTA. Gaudette0.63 xG
- 1st 7:35OTTT. Stützle0.15 xG
- 1st 11:07BOSP. ZachaPP0.17 xG
- 1st 19:22BOSD. Pastrnak0.05 xG
- 2nd 1:06BOSM. Geekie0.32 xG
- 2nd 5:41OTTJ. NorrisPP0.07 xG
- 2nd 14:38BOSJ. Beecher0.02 xG
- 3rd 11:23BOSV. Lettieri0.21 xG
- 3rd 16:47OTTN. Jensen0.11 xG
- 3rd 19:48OTTJ. Norris0.21 xG
Team Stats
BOSOTT
28Shots on goal44
2.63Expected goals4.33
50Shot attempts95
215v5 shots on goal27
1/4Power play1/3
29Hits28
25Blocked shots16
15Penalty minutes17
18Giveaways18
6Takeaways6
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
BOS 2.63 xGOTT 4.33 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
BOS Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D. Pastrnak | RW | 1 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 21:55 | 5:07 |
| P. Zacha | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | +2 | 0 | 23:24 | 4:37 |
| M. Geekie | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 17:57 | 2:15 |
| J. Beecher | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13:04 | 0:00 |
| V. Lettieri | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 12:47 | 1:18 |
| J. Brazeau | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 10:31 | 1:55 |
| M. Kastelic | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 2 | -1 | 5 | 9:06 | 0:00 |
| E. Lindholm | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 2 | -2 | 2 | 21:40 | 4:38 |
| B. Marchand | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 4 | 19:20 | 4:21 |
| C. Coyle | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 19:13 | 1:56 |
| T. Frederic | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 12:25 | 0:00 |
| M. Poitras | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 10:32 | 0:00 |
| M. Lohrei | D | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | +1 | 0 | 17:08 | 4:46 |
| J. Oesterle | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +3 | 0 | 14:47 | 1:51 |
| N. Zadorov | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 2 | 24:26 | 0:11 |
| P. Wotherspoon | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -1 | 2 | 22:00 | 0:00 |
| A. Peeke | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -2 | 0 | 20:22 | 0:00 |
| B. Carlo | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 20:09 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Swayman | 44 | 39 | 5 | .886 | 65:00 | OT loss |
| J. Korpisalo | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
OTT Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T. Stützle | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 22:35 | 2:48 |
| J. Norris | C | 2 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 22:16 | 2:46 |
| C. Giroux | RW | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 21:51 | 2:18 |
| D. Batherson | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 22:23 | 2:46 |
| S. Pinto | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 19:12 | 1:28 |
| A. Gaudette | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 2 | +3 | 0 | 9:47 | 1:11 |
| B. Tkachuk | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 5 | 0 | +1 | 4 | 22:15 | 2:00 |
| R. Greig | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | -3 | 0 | 18:09 | 1:26 |
| M. Amadio | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 10:57 | 0:00 |
| N. Cousins | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 2 | 9:13 | 0:00 |
| M. Highmore | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7:21 | 0:00 |
| Z. Ostapchuk | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 6:40 | 0:00 |
| N. Jensen | D | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 18:29 | 0:13 |
| T. Chabot | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 27:45 | 1:29 |
| J. Sanderson | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 6 | -3 | 0 | 26:49 | 2:45 |
| A. Zub | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 0 | 21:13 | 0:00 |
| T. Kleven | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 12:56 | 0:00 |
| N. Matinpalo | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 11:32 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| L. Meriläinen | 28 | 23 | 5 | .821 | 62:02 | Win |
| A. Forsberg | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | BOS 2.8, OTT 2.8 | BOS 5, OTT 6 |
| Total goals | 5.6 | 11 |
| Shots on goal | BOS 26.0, OTT 30.2 | BOS 28, OTT 44 |
| Win chance | OTT 50% | OTT won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT B. Tkachuk | 3.9 | 8 | 0.86 | 0 | 32% | 0 |
| BOS D. Pastrnak | 3.9 | 6 | 1.09 | 3 | 41% | 1 |
| BOS B. Marchand | 2.5 | 1 | 0.78 | 0 | 28% | 0 |
| OTT D. Batherson | 2.2 | 1 | 0.77 | 1 | 25% | 0 |
| OTT S. Pinto | 2.2 | 8 | 0.53 | 1 | 22% | 0 |
| OTT J. Norris | 2.1 | 3 | 0.61 | 2 | 29% | 2 |
| OTT T. Stützle | 2.0 | 3 | 0.83 | 2 | 25% | 1 |
| OTT J. Sanderson | 2.0 | 7 | 0.50 | 1 | 8% | 0 |
| OTT C. Giroux | 1.9 | 0 | 0.68 | 2 | 22% | 0 |
| BOS M. Geekie | 1.8 | 1 | 0.51 | 2 | 20% | 1 |
| BOS E. Lindholm | 1.8 | 3 | 0.57 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| BOS P. Zacha | 1.7 | 2 | 0.63 | 2 | 22% | 1 |
| OTT T. Chabot | 1.7 | 2 | 0.41 | 1 | 8% | 0 |
| OTT R. Greig | 1.7 | 0 | 0.41 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| OTT N. Cousins | 1.6 | 0 | 0.34 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| BOS C. Coyle | 1.4 | 0 | 0.48 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| BOS J. Brazeau | 1.4 | 0 | 0.38 | 1 | 18% | 0 |
| BOS T. Frederic | 1.4 | 2 | 0.38 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| BOS N. Zadorov | 1.2 | 3 | 0.29 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| OTT M. Amadio | 1.2 | 0 | 0.34 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| OTT A. Gaudette | 1.2 | 4 | 0.31 | 1 | 15% | 1 |
| OTT A. Zub | 1.2 | 4 | 0.27 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| BOS M. Kastelic | 1.1 | 0 | 0.22 | 1 | 10% | 0 |
| OTT N. Jensen | 1.1 | 2 | 0.28 | 2 | 4% | 1 |
| OTT T. Kleven | 1.0 | 1 | 0.15 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| BOS J. Oesterle | 1.0 | 1 | 0.19 | 1 | 3% | 0 |
| BOS B. Carlo | 1.0 | 0 | 0.16 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| BOS M. Lohrei | 1.0 | 0 | 0.40 | 2 | 7% | 0 |
| BOS V. Lettieri | 1.0 | 3 | 0.21 | 1 | 11% | 1 |
| BOS A. Peeke | 1.0 | 1 | 0.20 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| OTT M. Highmore | 0.9 | 1 | 0.21 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| BOS M. Poitras | 0.9 | 2 | 0.36 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| BOS P. Wotherspoon | 0.9 | 1 | 0.18 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| OTT N. Matinpalo | 0.8 | 0 | 0.08 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| BOS J. Beecher | 0.6 | 2 | 0.17 | 1 | 9% | 1 |
| OTT Z. Ostapchuk | 0.6 | 0 | 0.11 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 16 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.5 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.