Go ad-free AND support the site for the 26-27 season for just $18. Sign up now!
Game Recap
BOS2
FinalMon, Oct 27, 2025Every game that night
OTT7

OTT beat BOS 7-2, and the chances backed it up: 3.15 expected goals to 1.45. T. Stützle led the way with 3 points (2 G, 1 A). M. Eyssimont had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.8. L. Meriläinen stopped 26 of 28.

Scoring

1st2nd3rdT
BOS1012
OTT1247
  1. 1st 3:06BOSM. Geekie0.03 xG
  2. 1st 10:25OTTD. BathersonPP0.30 xG
  3. 2nd 1:08OTTC. Giroux0.19 xG
  4. 2nd 14:44OTTD. Batherson0.21 xG
  5. 3rd 0:13OTTT. StützlePP0.07 xG
  6. 3rd 9:33OTTT. StützlePP0.11 xG
  7. 3rd 12:22OTTN. Cousins0.35 xG
  8. 3rd 13:04OTTF. ZetterlundPP0.04 xG
  9. 3rd 19:50BOSV. Arvidsson0.07 xG

Team Stats

BOSOTT
28Shots on goal23
1.45Expected goals3.15
63Shot attempts51
255v5 shots on goal17
0/1Power play4/5
33Hits19
9Blocked shots19
10Penalty minutes2
13Giveaways11
5Takeaways2

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

BOS 1.45 xGOTT 3.15 xGGoal

00.511.522.533.51st2nd3rdBOS goal, 3:06OTT goal, 10:25OTT goal, 1:08OTT goal, 14:44OTT goal, 0:13OTT goal, 9:33OTT goal, 12:22OTT goal, 13:04BOS goal, 19:50

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

BOS28 on goal, 2 scored
OTT23 on goal, 7 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

BOS Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
M. GeekieC101320-1016:581:16
V. ArvidssonLW101300+1014:580:44
T. JeannotLW011151+1014:580:00
F. MintenC011240+1013:500:00
D. PastrnakRW000120-2019:351:45
E. LindholmC000131-1018:231:16
P. ZachaC000410-1016:381:17
C. MittelstadtC000001-1014:530:44
S. KuralyC0004020013:160:00
M. EyssimontC0005100212:000:15
M. KhusnutdinovC000110-1011:080:00
M. KastelicC000032+1210:000:00
N. ZadorovD000130-1223:000:00
A. PeekeD0001310021:280:00
H. JokiharjuD0000100019:460:43
M. LohreiD0001000018:570:46
M. CallahanD000020-1018:260:00
C. McAvoyD0000210417:231:14
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
J. Swayman23167.69659:57Loss
J. Korpisalo000–0:00

OTT Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
D. BathersonRW213310+1016:511:55
T. StützleC213500+1016:421:55
F. ZetterlundLW112112-1014:511:10
S. PintoC011200+1018:381:21
C. GirouxRW101310+1017:372:16
M. AmadioRW011000+1016:490:14
R. GreigC0112210015:541:52
L. EllerC011002-1015:432:22
D. PerronLW011110+1014:282:17
D. CozensC0110300214:091:57
N. CousinsC101211+1012:380:09
K. MacDermidLW000001-207:470:00
J. SandersonD0332110020:122:14
T. ChabotD011112+3020:202:12
N. JensenD011122+3018:450:00
A. ZubD0000220019:440:16
T. KlevenD000004-2019:210:00
N. MatinpaloD000031-2017:310:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
L. Meriläinen28262.92960:00Win
H. Shepard000–0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

BOS

Line 1E. Lindholm16:21D. Pastrnak17:38M. Geekie15:39
Line 2T. Jeannot13:39F. Minten12:40M. Eyssimont11:45
Line 3C. Mittelstadt14:06P. Zacha13:32V. Arvidsson14:14
Line 4S. Kuraly10:48M. Kastelic9:34M. Khusnutdinov10:22
Pair 1H. Jokiharju18:06M. Callahan17:20
Pair 2N. Zadorov19:54A. Peeke19:45
Pair 3C. McAvoy14:01M. Lohrei18:11

OTT

Line 1M. Amadio16:35S. Pinto16:05C. Giroux14:30
Line 2L. Eller13:21F. Zetterlund13:41K. MacDermid7:47
Line 3D. Perron12:08D. Cozens12:09R. Greig12:52
Line 4T. Stützle13:58D. Batherson14:56N. Cousins12:29
Pair 1T. Kleven19:18N. Matinpalo17:28
Pair 2N. Jensen17:59T. Chabot17:23
Pair 3J. Sanderson16:44A. Zub18:12

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

We projectedIt finished
ScoreBOS 2.9, OTT 3.1BOS 2, OTT 7
Total goals6.09
Shots on goalBOS 24.8, OTT 29.7BOS 28, OTT 23
Win chanceOTT 55%OTT won

Players

PlayerSOG projectedSOGPoints projectedPointsGoal chanceGoals
BOS D. Pastrnak3.611.23042%0
OTT D. Cozens2.500.69124%0
OTT S. Pinto2.320.69128%0
OTT T. Stützle2.250.91326%2
OTT D. Batherson2.130.74324%2
OTT J. Sanderson2.120.5939%0
BOS V. Arvidsson2.130.50120%1
BOS M. Geekie2.030.78130%1
OTT T. Chabot2.010.58111%0
BOS E. Lindholm2.010.62023%0
OTT F. Zetterlund1.810.36215%1
BOS M. Eyssimont1.850.26011%0
OTT D. Perron1.810.57122%0
BOS C. McAvoy1.700.60011%0
OTT R. Greig1.620.48118%0
OTT C. Giroux1.530.64120%1
BOS P. Zacha1.540.64019%0
OTT L. Eller1.400.33113%0
BOS S. Kuraly1.340.27012%0
OTT M. Amadio1.300.39118%0
BOS M. Kastelic1.300.26012%0
OTT N. Cousins1.220.28111%1
BOS C. Mittelstadt1.200.51017%0
BOS N. Zadorov1.210.3109%0
BOS F. Minten1.020.18111%0
OTT T. Kleven1.000.1604%0
BOS A. Peeke1.010.1903%0
BOS T. Jeannot1.010.24112%0
OTT A. Zub1.000.2705%0
BOS M. Lohrei1.010.3506%0
OTT N. Jensen0.910.2514%0
BOS H. Jokiharju0.900.2304%0
OTT N. Matinpalo0.900.1103%0
BOS M. Khusnutdinov0.710.2209%0
BOS M. Callahan0.700.1104%0
OTT K. MacDermid0.400.0803%0

Shots on goal: 23 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.