BOS beat PHI 3-0, with the chances close: 2.35 expected goals to 1.64. BOS outshot PHI 31 to 20. B. Marchand led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). J. Brazeau had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 1.4. J. Korpisalo stopped 20 of 20.
Team Stats
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
BOS 2.35 xGPHI 1.64 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
BOS Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B. Marchand | LW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 18:11 | 3:00 |
| D. Pastrnak | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 17:44 | 2:58 |
| E. Lindholm | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | +2 | 0 | 17:24 | 2:59 |
| J. Brazeau | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 14:39 | 0:54 |
| M. Geekie | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 13:27 | 0:54 |
| M. Poitras | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 4 | 12:30 | 0:07 |
| C. Coyle | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20:03 | 2:31 |
| P. Zacha | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:00 | 1:25 |
| T. Frederic | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 13:51 | 0:05 |
| J. Beecher | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 12:14 | 0:00 |
| M. Kastelic | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 11:30 | 0:00 |
| C. Koepke | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:30 | 0:06 |
| H. Lindholm | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 19:01 | 1:05 |
| C. McAvoy | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 | +1 | 2 | 24:29 | 2:46 |
| N. Zadorov | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 20:38 | 0:00 |
| B. Carlo | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | +2 | 2 | 19:51 | 0:09 |
| P. Wotherspoon | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16:54 | 0:07 |
| M. Lohrei | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 16:24 | 0:54 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Korpisalo | 20 | 20 | 0 | 1.000 | 59:49 | Win |
| J. Swayman | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
PHI Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T. Konecny | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -2 | 4 | 21:13 | 2:35 |
| O. Tippett | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 17:29 | 2:19 |
| S. Couturier | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | -3 | 0 | 17:24 | 2:05 |
| M. Frost | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 17:19 | 2:46 |
| T. Foerster | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 16:12 | 2:30 |
| M. Michkov | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -3 | 0 | 15:15 | 2:43 |
| S. Laughton | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15:05 | 0:00 |
| B. Brink | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:50 | 2:08 |
| J. Farabee | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 14:24 | 2:16 |
| N. Cates | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 11:42 | 0:00 |
| R. Poehling | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 11:41 | 0:00 |
| G. Hathaway | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 10:19 | 0:00 |
| J. Drysdale | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 23:49 | 2:21 |
| T. Sanheim | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -2 | 2 | 23:15 | 0:00 |
| R. Ristolainen | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 21:56 | 0:00 |
| E. Andrae | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 19:12 | 2:32 |
| N. Seeler | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15:00 | 0:00 |
| E. Johnson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 10:54 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Ersson | 8 | 8 | 0 | 1.000 | 7:36 | |
| A. Kolosov | 22 | 20 | 2 | .909 | 51:25 | Loss |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | BOS 2.9, PHI 2.8 | BOS 3, PHI 0 |
| Total goals | 5.7 | 3 |
| Shots on goal | BOS 24.1, PHI 31.5 | BOS 31, PHI 20 |
| Win chance | BOS 52% | BOS won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS D. Pastrnak | 3.7 | 4 | 1.17 | 1 | 43% | 0 |
| PHI O. Tippett | 3.2 | 3 | 0.59 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| PHI T. Konecny | 3.1 | 1 | 0.86 | 0 | 30% | 0 |
| PHI S. Couturier | 2.4 | 3 | 0.47 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| BOS B. Marchand | 2.1 | 4 | 0.85 | 2 | 28% | 1 |
| PHI T. Sanheim | 1.9 | 0 | 0.43 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| PHI M. Michkov | 1.8 | 2 | 0.61 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| PHI M. Frost | 1.8 | 2 | 0.47 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| BOS E. Lindholm | 1.8 | 0 | 0.67 | 1 | 25% | 0 |
| PHI S. Laughton | 1.8 | 0 | 0.45 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| PHI T. Foerster | 1.7 | 0 | 0.37 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| BOS P. Zacha | 1.7 | 4 | 0.70 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| PHI J. Farabee | 1.7 | 0 | 0.42 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| PHI J. Drysdale | 1.5 | 0 | 0.30 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| BOS C. McAvoy | 1.5 | 1 | 0.61 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| BOS C. Coyle | 1.4 | 2 | 0.57 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| BOS T. Frederic | 1.4 | 1 | 0.44 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| PHI N. Seeler | 1.4 | 1 | 0.20 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| PHI R. Ristolainen | 1.4 | 1 | 0.23 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| PHI B. Brink | 1.4 | 2 | 0.34 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| BOS J. Brazeau | 1.4 | 4 | 0.39 | 1 | 19% | 1 |
| PHI R. Poehling | 1.3 | 0 | 0.34 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| PHI G. Hathaway | 1.3 | 1 | 0.27 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| BOS H. Lindholm | 1.3 | 2 | 0.40 | 1 | 7% | 0 |
| BOS M. Geekie | 1.2 | 1 | 0.39 | 1 | 15% | 0 |
| BOS N. Zadorov | 1.2 | 2 | 0.34 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| BOS M. Kastelic | 1.2 | 1 | 0.35 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| PHI N. Cates | 1.2 | 2 | 0.32 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| BOS C. Koepke | 1.2 | 2 | 0.35 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| BOS M. Lohrei | 1.0 | 1 | 0.36 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| BOS M. Poitras | 1.0 | 2 | 0.42 | 1 | 13% | 1 |
| BOS B. Carlo | 0.9 | 0 | 0.22 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| PHI E. Johnson | 0.9 | 1 | 0.12 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| BOS J. Beecher | 0.8 | 0 | 0.30 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| BOS P. Wotherspoon | 0.7 | 0 | 0.20 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
| PHI E. Andrae | 0.5 | 1 | 0.18 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 24 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.