BOS beat PIT 4-1, and the chances backed it up: 3.99 expected goals to 2.39. BOS outshot PIT 32 to 24. E. Lindholm led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). V. Lettieri had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.8. J. Korpisalo stopped 23 of 24.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 1 | 2 | 1 | 4 |
| PIT | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
- 1st 19:57BOSE. Lindholm0.06 xG
- 2nd 8:52BOSF. LysellPP0.16 xG
- 2nd 11:56BOSM. Geekie0.13 xG
- 2nd 19:44PITR. RakellPP0.41 xG
- 3rd 17:30BOSJ. LaukoEN0.65 xG
Team Stats
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
BOS 3.99 xGPIT 2.39 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
BOS Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D. Pastrnak | RW | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 18:16 | 4:46 |
| P. Zacha | C | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 17:19 | 2:04 |
| E. Lindholm | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 2 | +2 | 0 | 16:09 | 3:37 |
| M. Geekie | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 15:03 | 4:21 |
| M. Khusnutdinov | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:22 | 1:09 |
| J. Lauko | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 12:55 | 0:00 |
| F. Lysell | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:47 | 0:55 |
| C. Mittelstadt | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:32 | 4:21 |
| F. Minten | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 16:15 | 0:00 |
| V. Lettieri | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14:18 | 1:20 |
| C. Koepke | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:32 | 0:00 |
| R. Duran | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 11:51 | 0:00 |
| H. Jokiharju | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 20:59 | 2:02 |
| N. Zadorov | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 4 | 19:21 | 0:11 |
| M. Lohrei | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20:01 | 3:39 |
| A. Peeke | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 19:56 | 0:00 |
| P. Wotherspoon | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 19:45 | 0:00 |
| I. Mitchell | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 15:03 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Korpisalo | 24 | 23 | 1 | .958 | 59:54 | Win |
| J. Swayman | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
PIT Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R. Rakell | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 21:19 | 4:19 |
| V. Koivunen | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 2 | 17:47 | 4:19 |
| P. Tomasino | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:33 | 0:30 |
| S. Crosby | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 21:59 | 4:55 |
| B. Rust | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 19:31 | 4:08 |
| E. Malkin | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 16:00 | 1:21 |
| D. Heinen | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:30 | 0:13 |
| C. Dewar | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 13:24 | 0:09 |
| V. Ponomarev | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 11:43 | 0:08 |
| K. Hayes | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:53 | 1:11 |
| J. Koppanen | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 8:44 | 0:00 |
| V. Puustinen | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 8:12 | 0:00 |
| M. Grzelcyk | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 0 | 24:25 | 2:59 |
| E. Karlsson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 24:03 | 2:29 |
| C. Timmins | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 22:49 | 0:14 |
| K. Letang | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 2 | -2 | 4 | 17:21 | 1:35 |
| R. Shea | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16:35 | 0:00 |
| R. Graves | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:40 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T. Jarry | 31 | 28 | 3 | .903 | 59:51 | Loss |
| A. Nedeljkovic | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | BOS 3.0, PIT 3.2 | BOS 4, PIT 1 |
| Total goals | 6.2 | 5 |
| Shots on goal | BOS 26.1, PIT 29.6 | BOS 32, PIT 24 |
| Win chance | PIT 53% | BOS won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS D. Pastrnak | 3.5 | 3 | 1.19 | 2 | 40% | 0 |
| PIT S. Crosby | 3.0 | 1 | 1.17 | 0 | 35% | 0 |
| PIT B. Rust | 2.8 | 4 | 0.89 | 0 | 31% | 0 |
| PIT R. Rakell | 2.4 | 5 | 0.76 | 1 | 28% | 1 |
| PIT E. Karlsson | 2.2 | 1 | 0.70 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| PIT K. Letang | 2.1 | 1 | 0.53 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| PIT V. Koivunen | 2.1 | 1 | 0.59 | 1 | 17% | 0 |
| PIT E. Malkin | 2.0 | 0 | 0.78 | 0 | 25% | 0 |
| BOS M. Geekie | 2.0 | 2 | 0.74 | 1 | 27% | 1 |
| BOS E. Lindholm | 1.9 | 3 | 0.61 | 2 | 22% | 1 |
| BOS V. Lettieri | 1.8 | 5 | 0.31 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| BOS F. Lysell | 1.7 | 4 | 0.26 | 1 | 13% | 1 |
| BOS N. Zadorov | 1.5 | 0 | 0.33 | 1 | 10% | 0 |
| PIT K. Hayes | 1.5 | 1 | 0.33 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| BOS P. Zacha | 1.5 | 1 | 0.62 | 2 | 19% | 0 |
| PIT P. Tomasino | 1.4 | 1 | 0.38 | 1 | 13% | 0 |
| PIT C. Dewar | 1.4 | 1 | 0.29 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| BOS C. Mittelstadt | 1.4 | 3 | 0.61 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| BOS M. Lohrei | 1.3 | 1 | 0.45 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| BOS F. Minten | 1.3 | 1 | 0.29 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| BOS C. Koepke | 1.3 | 2 | 0.27 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| PIT V. Puustinen | 1.2 | 0 | 0.33 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| PIT M. Grzelcyk | 1.2 | 1 | 0.43 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| BOS H. Jokiharju | 1.2 | 0 | 0.26 | 1 | 5% | 0 |
| BOS A. Peeke | 1.2 | 0 | 0.24 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| PIT C. Timmins | 1.1 | 2 | 0.36 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| PIT D. Heinen | 1.1 | 2 | 0.37 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| PIT J. Koppanen | 1.0 | 2 | 0.22 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| PIT V. Ponomarev | 1.0 | 1 | 0.28 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| BOS P. Wotherspoon | 0.9 | 1 | 0.19 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
| BOS J. Lauko | 0.8 | 1 | 0.23 | 1 | 10% | 1 |
| BOS I. Mitchell | 0.8 | 0 | 0.20 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| PIT R. Graves | 0.8 | 0 | 0.16 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| BOS M. Khusnutdinov | 0.7 | 2 | 0.23 | 1 | 10% | 0 |
| PIT R. Shea | 0.6 | 0 | 0.14 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 18 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.