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Game Recap
BOS6
FinalThu, Nov 5, 2026Every game that night
PIT2

BOS beat PIT 6-2, with the chances close: 2.74 expected goals to 2.31. P. Zacha led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). J. Brazeau had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 1.3. M. DiPietro stopped 16 of 18.

Scoring

1st2nd3rdT
BOS3216
PIT1102
  1. 1st 9:04PITJ. Brazeau0.06 xG
  2. 1st 12:07BOSP. Zacha0.16 xG
  3. 1st 15:04BOSM. Kastelic0.08 xG
  4. 1st 18:57BOSE. Lindholm0.23 xG
  5. 2nd 7:57PITN. Robertson0.08 xG
  6. 2nd 14:24BOSP. Zacha0.15 xG
  7. 2nd 16:57BOSM. Geekie0.24 xG
  8. 3rd 8:39BOSF. Minten0.13 xG

Team Stats

BOSPIT
24Shots on goal18
2.74Expected goals2.31
41Shot attempts56
225v5 shots on goal18
0/1Power play0/1
24Hits18
22Blocked shots7
2Penalty minutes2
16Giveaways19
5Takeaways3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

BOS 2.74 xGPIT 2.31 xGGoal

00.511.522.531st2nd3rdPIT goal, 9:04BOS goal, 12:07BOS goal, 15:04BOS goal, 18:57PIT goal, 7:57BOS goal, 14:24BOS goal, 16:57BOS goal, 8:39

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

BOS23 on goal, 6 scored
PIT18 on goal, 2 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

BOS Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
D. PastrnakRW022410+1020:231:56
P. ZachaC202211+2218:371:07
J. PeterkaRW022101+2018:250:49
M. GeekieC112201+2013:441:07
E. LindholmC101301-1014:401:08
F. MintenC101121+1013:540:48
T. JeannotLW011140+2013:160:04
M. KastelicC101122+1013:110:04
S. KuralyC000220+2014:470:04
M. KhusnutdinovC0001100014:000:00
C. MittelstadtC0000000012:530:00
J. HagensC0004100011:570:49
H. LindholmD011123+4020:130:00
F. BrunetD011002+1016:210:00
N. ZadorovD0000420021:250:04
W. BorgenD0000340021:020:04
C. McAvoyD000102+3020:020:51
M. LohreiD0000120019:101:05
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
M. DiPietro18162.88960:00Win
J. Swayman000–0:00

PIT Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
N. RobertsonLW101220+1014:570:00
B. LizotteC011010+1013:290:00
H. LapierreC011050-1012:210:00
J. BrazeauRW101401-2011:490:00
B. KindelC000010-3018:071:40
S. CrosbyC000020-1017:151:44
R. RakellRW000300-3017:151:42
T. NovakC000000-2017:061:37
C. DewarC000120+1016:140:00
E. MalkinC000100-1016:110:20
E. ChinakhovRW000100-1015:420:23
V. KoivunenRW000000-108:570:18
K. KorczakD022012+1019:280:00
E. KarlssonD000000-4021:051:37
K. LetangD000030-2220:270:23
S. StastneyD000210-1020:150:00
S. GirardD000302-2020:080:00
D. CarlileD0001020017:140:16
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
A. Silovs24186.75060:00Loss
S. Murashov000–0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

BOS

Line 1D. Pastrnak18:27P. Zacha17:30J. Peterka17:36
Line 2S. Kuraly14:23T. Jeannot12:50M. Kastelic12:18
Line 3F. Minten12:18M. Geekie12:37M. Khusnutdinov13:10
Line 4C. Mittelstadt12:53E. Lindholm12:42J. Hagens11:08
Pair 1N. Zadorov20:10W. Borgen19:46
Pair 2H. Lindholm19:25C. McAvoy18:21
Pair 3M. Lohrei18:05F. Brunet16:21

PIT

Line 1E. Chinakhov15:19B. Kindel16:27E. Malkin15:51
Line 2S. Crosby15:27T. Novak15:29R. Rakell14:25
Line 3C. Dewar14:56N. Robertson14:20B. Lizotte12:37
Line 4J. Brazeau11:49H. Lapierre12:21V. Koivunen8:39
Pair 1S. Girard19:37E. Karlsson18:46
Pair 2S. Stastney19:43K. Korczak18:40
Pair 3K. Letang20:04D. Carlile15:30

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Prop Results

7 of 17 overs hit (41%).

PlayerLineOverUnderSOGResult
BOS D. Pastrnak3.5+120-1254Over
PIT B. Kindel2.5+148-1750Under
PIT E. Chinakhov2.5+150-1801Under
PIT E. Karlsson2.5+140-1650Under
PIT R. Rakell2.5-109-1103Over
PIT S. Crosby2.5+135-1600Under
BOS C. McAvoy1.5-125+1151Under
BOS E. Lindholm1.5-118+1003Over
PIT E. Malkin1.5-160+1301Under
BOS F. Minten1.5-111+1001Under
BOS J. Hagens1.5-125+1034Over
BOS J. Peterka1.5-180+1541Under
PIT K. Letang1.5+105-1350Under
BOS M. Geekie1.5-145+1202Over
PIT N. Robertson1.5+106-1302Over
BOS P. Zacha1.5-110-1052Over
PIT T. Novak1.5-160+1300Under

Each player's main line (the one most books posted) at the last price before puck drop, the best price on each side there, and what he did.

Storylines That Played Out

  • Old teamJustin Brazeau PIT Faces BOS, his team until Mar 20251 G, 4 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

We projectedIt finished
ScoreBOS 3.2, PIT 3.3BOS 6, PIT 2
Total goals6.58
Shots on goalBOS 25.4, PIT 29.4BOS 24, PIT 18
Win chancePIT 51%BOS won

Players

PlayerSOG projectedSOGPoints projectedPointsGoal chanceGoals
BOS D. Pastrnak3.341.27238%0
PIT R. Rakell2.830.81032%0
PIT S. Crosby2.501.00032%0
PIT E. Karlsson2.200.76015%0
PIT E. Malkin2.210.75024%0
PIT B. Kindel2.100.51023%0
PIT T. Novak2.000.68025%0
BOS J. Peterka2.010.70227%0
PIT E. Chinakhov2.010.48020%0
PIT N. Robertson1.820.37119%1
BOS P. Zacha1.820.80225%2
BOS M. Geekie1.820.74228%1
BOS E. Lindholm1.730.69124%1
BOS J. Hagens1.740.59020%0
BOS C. McAvoy1.710.72014%0
BOS F. Minten1.610.49120%1
PIT K. Letang1.500.3908%0
PIT C. Dewar1.410.34015%0
BOS H. Lindholm1.310.3417%0
PIT J. Brazeau1.340.33115%1
BOS C. Mittelstadt1.200.54017%0
PIT V. Koivunen1.200.45015%0
PIT D. Carlile1.110.1907%0
BOS S. Kuraly1.120.2409%0
PIT S. Girard1.130.3807%0
BOS N. Zadorov1.100.2606%0
PIT B. Lizotte1.000.33112%0
PIT H. Lapierre1.000.35111%0
BOS M. Lohrei1.000.3409%0
BOS M. Kastelic1.010.24111%1
PIT S. Stastney0.920.1804%0
BOS W. Borgen0.900.2205%0
PIT K. Korczak0.900.3124%0
BOS M. Khusnutdinov0.810.33013%0
BOS F. Brunet0.800.2013%0
BOS T. Jeannot0.710.2119%0

Shots on goal: 20 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.