Game Recap: BOS 0, TOR 4, November 5, 2024

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Game Recap

BOS0

FinalTue, Nov 5, 2024Every game that night

TOR4

TOR beat BOS 4-0, with the chances close: 2.68 expected goals to 2.40. M. Rielly led the way with 3 points (1 G, 2 A). M. Pacioretty had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 2.0. A. Stolarz stopped 29 of 29.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
BOS	0	0	0	0
TOR	0	2	2	4

2nd 8:44TORM. RiellyPP0.08 xG
2nd 9:58TORW. NylanderPP0.06 xG
3rd 14:13TORM. KniesPP0.12 xG
3rd 15:58TORS. LorentzEN0.51 xG

Team Stats

BOSTOR

29Shots on goal27

2.40Expected goals2.68

55Shot attempts48

145v5 shots on goal17

0/6Power play3/7

32Hits19

10Blocked shots12

16Penalty minutes12

13Giveaways8

5Takeaways4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

BOS 2.40 xGTOR 2.68 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

BOS27 on goal, 0 scored

TOR27 on goal, 4 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

BOS Skaters

Player	Pos	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
D. Pastrnak	RW	4	0	0	-1	2	22:18	8:54
E. Lindholm	C	2	1	0	-1	0	19:53	8:03
B. Marchand	LW	3	2	0	0	4	19:32	6:59
C. Coyle	C	3	3	0	0	2	18:33	7:06
P. Zacha	C	0	0	0	-1	0	15:25	3:10
T. Johnson	C	1	1	0	0	0	13:51	2:53
M. Kastelic	C	1	8	0	0	2	12:42	0:48
J. Brazeau	RW	3	2	2	-1	0	12:22	1:52
C. Koepke	LW	0	2	0	0	0	12:17	0:00
M. Poitras	C	0	1	1	0	0	11:41	0:30
J. Beecher	C	1	2	0	0	0	11:37	0:00
T. Frederic	C	0	2	0	0	0	10:04	0:27
C. McAvoy	D	4	3	0	0	4	24:20	7:58
N. Zadorov	D	4	3	2	0	2	23:00	0:37
H. Lindholm	D	2	0	0	-1	0	21:22	2:23
B. Carlo	D	1	1	2	0	0	21:00	0:00
P. Wotherspoon	D	0	0	2	-1	0	16:31	0:00
A. Peeke	D	0	1	1	0	0	4:49	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Swayman	26	23	3	.885	59:31	Loss
J. Korpisalo	0	0	0	–	0:00

TOR Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Marner	RW	0	2	2	0	0	1	0	0	20:17	5:06
M. Knies	LW	1	1	2	2	1	0	0	2	20:04	5:13
W. Nylander	RW	1	1	2	3	0	1	0	0	18:47	5:09
S. Lorentz	C	1	0	1	1	3	1	+1	0	12:12	0:00
J. Tavares	C	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	18:03	5:11
D. Kampf	C	0	0	0	3	3	0	0	0	16:23	0:00
M. Domi	C	0	0	0	2	1	0	+1	2	14:20	2:25
M. Pacioretty	LW	0	0	0	5	1	0	0	0	14:15	2:24
P. Holmberg	RW	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	2	11:07	0:00
B. McMann	C	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	11:00	1:47
N. Robertson	LW	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	10:31	2:20
R. Reaves	RW	0	0	0	0	3	0	+1	0	8:31	0:07
M. Rielly	D	1	2	3	2	0	0	0	0	19:57	5:16
C. Tanev	D	0	1	1	0	0	3	+1	4	16:51	0:00
J. McCabe	D	0	0	0	2	0	1	+1	2	22:20	0:03
O. Ekman-Larsson	D	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	18:57	2:13
S. Benoit	D	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	17:33	0:01
C. Timmins	D	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	17:13	0:25

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
A. Stolarz	29	29	0	1.000	59:45	Win
J. Woll	0	0	0	–	0:00

Storylines That Played Out

HometownMatthew Poitras BOS Plays near home (born in Whitby)0 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	BOS 2.9, TOR 3.2	BOS 0, TOR 4
Total goals	6.1	4
Shots on goal	BOS 26.3, TOR 32.5	BOS 29, TOR 27
Win chance	TOR 55%	TOR won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
BOS D. Pastrnak	3.6	4	0.99	0	38%	0
TOR W. Nylander	3.3	3	0.91	2	33%	1
TOR J. Tavares	3.2	2	0.72	0	27%	0
TOR M. Marner	2.4	0	1.07	2	28%	0
BOS B. Marchand	2.3	3	0.83	0	27%	0
TOR B. McMann	2.2	1	0.39	0	19%	0
TOR M. Knies	2.1	2	0.54	2	22%	1
TOR M. Pacioretty	2.0	5	0.50	0	17%	0
TOR M. Rielly	1.9	2	0.58	3	9%	1
BOS E. Lindholm	1.9	2	0.64	0	24%	0
BOS P. Zacha	1.8	0	0.62	0	20%	0
TOR N. Robertson	1.8	1	0.34	0	16%	0
TOR M. Domi	1.8	2	0.55	0	14%	0
TOR O. Ekman-Larsson	1.7	1	0.37	0	7%	0
BOS C. Coyle	1.6	3	0.56	0	20%	0
BOS J. Brazeau	1.6	3	0.40	0	20%	0
BOS C. McAvoy	1.5	4	0.52	0	10%	0
BOS T. Johnson	1.5	1	0.42	0	17%	0
BOS T. Frederic	1.4	0	0.39	0	17%	0
BOS H. Lindholm	1.3	2	0.35	0	6%	0
BOS C. Koepke	1.2	0	0.30	0	11%	0
BOS N. Zadorov	1.2	4	0.30	0	9%	0
BOS M. Kastelic	1.2	1	0.31	0	14%	0
TOR J. McCabe	1.0	2	0.33	0	7%	0
BOS M. Poitras	1.0	0	0.38	0	12%	0
TOR P. Holmberg	1.0	2	0.26	0	11%	0
TOR D. Kampf	1.0	3	0.21	0	8%	0
TOR S. Lorentz	1.0	1	0.17	1	9%	1
BOS B. Carlo	0.9	1	0.19	0	5%	0
TOR C. Timmins	0.9	0	0.35	0	4%	0
BOS J. Beecher	0.8	1	0.26	0	13%	0
BOS A. Peeke	0.8	0	0.16	0	3%	0
TOR S. Benoit	0.7	0	0.09	0	2%	0
TOR C. Tanev	0.7	0	0.20	1	3%	0
BOS P. Wotherspoon	0.7	0	0.16	0	2%	0
TOR R. Reaves	0.5	0	0.12	0	5%	0

Shots on goal: 23 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.