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Game Recap
BOS4
TOR6
TOR beat BOS 6-4, and the chances backed it up: 3.85 expected goals to 3.00. M. Knies scored three for TOR. M. Knies had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 1.7. J. Woll stopped 27 of 31.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 |
| TOR | 1 | 1 | 4 | 6 |
- 1st 3:29TORJ. McCabe0.13 xG
- 2nd 3:37TORM. Knies0.04 xG
- 2nd 3:49BOSM. Geekie0.58 xG
- 2nd 18:44BOST. Frederic0.15 xG
- 3rd 3:43TORM. Knies0.19 xG
- 3rd 4:17BOSD. Pastrnak0.09 xG
- 3rd 5:28TORM. Knies0.16 xG
- 3rd 17:55TORM. MarnerEN0.78 xG
- 3rd 18:10BOSD. Pastrnak0.35 xG
- 3rd 19:29TORA. MatthewsEN0.81 xG
Team Stats
BOSTOR
31Shots on goal29
3.00Expected goals3.85
57Shot attempts48
285v5 shots on goal24
0/2Power play0/2
23Hits20
6Blocked shots14
4Penalty minutes4
16Giveaways20
13Takeaways6
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
BOS 3.00 xGTOR 3.85 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
BOS Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D. Pastrnak | RW | 2 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | -4 | 0 | 21:37 | 1:38 |
| P. Zacha | C | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 19:58 | 1:24 |
| B. Marchand | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | -3 | 0 | 18:30 | 1:39 |
| M. Geekie | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 16:09 | 0:46 |
| T. Frederic | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 15:02 | 0:00 |
| C. Coyle | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 14:46 | 0:42 |
| E. Lindholm | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -3 | 2 | 17:10 | 1:22 |
| O. Wahlstrom | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:37 | 0:44 |
| J. Brazeau | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 12:35 | 0:41 |
| J. Beecher | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 11:16 | 0:00 |
| M. Kastelic | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:58 | 0:12 |
| C. Koepke | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:22 | 0:00 |
| C. McAvoy | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 25:00 | 1:34 |
| N. Zadorov | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 22:53 | 0:05 |
| M. Lohrei | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 18:03 | 0:41 |
| A. Peeke | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17:58 | 0:12 |
| B. Carlo | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:42 | 0:00 |
| J. Oesterle | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16:25 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Swayman | 27 | 23 | 4 | .852 | 57:59 | Loss |
| J. Korpisalo | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
TOR Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Marner | RW | 1 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +5 | 0 | 22:42 | 1:59 |
| M. Knies | LW | 3 | 2 | 5 | 6 | 2 | 1 | +6 | 2 | 18:52 | 0:21 |
| A. Matthews | C | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 0 | +5 | 0 | 17:32 | 1:50 |
| J. Tavares | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 16:32 | 1:21 |
| W. Nylander | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 2 | 16:50 | 2:10 |
| B. McMann | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 14:30 | 0:59 |
| D. Kampf | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 14:09 | 0:00 |
| M. Domi | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 13:28 | 0:10 |
| M. Pacioretty | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 12:44 | 0:00 |
| N. Robertson | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 11:20 | 0:00 |
| C. Dewar | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 9:34 | 0:00 |
| S. Lorentz | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:33 | 0:00 |
| J. McCabe | D | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 1 | +3 | 0 | 21:32 | 0:14 |
| C. Tanev | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | +2 | 0 | 21:07 | 0:15 |
| M. Rielly | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 21:51 | 1:07 |
| O. Ekman-Larsson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 18:09 | 0:59 |
| S. Benoit | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 18:03 | 0:15 |
| P. Myers | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 17:32 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Woll | 31 | 27 | 4 | .871 | 60:00 | Win |
| D. Hildeby | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | BOS 2.9, TOR 3.0 | BOS 4, TOR 6 |
| Total goals | 5.9 | 10 |
| Shots on goal | BOS 27.8, TOR 28.4 | BOS 31, TOR 29 |
| Win chance | TOR 51% | TOR won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR A. Matthews | 4.0 | 5 | 1.08 | 3 | 43% | 1 |
| BOS D. Pastrnak | 3.6 | 5 | 0.98 | 2 | 37% | 2 |
| TOR W. Nylander | 3.4 | 3 | 1.05 | 0 | 36% | 0 |
| TOR J. Tavares | 3.0 | 2 | 0.88 | 1 | 31% | 0 |
| BOS B. Marchand | 2.4 | 5 | 0.79 | 1 | 28% | 0 |
| TOR B. McMann | 2.4 | 2 | 0.49 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| TOR M. Marner | 2.2 | 3 | 1.13 | 5 | 28% | 1 |
| TOR M. Pacioretty | 2.1 | 0 | 0.55 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| BOS M. Geekie | 1.8 | 1 | 0.47 | 1 | 19% | 1 |
| TOR M. Rielly | 1.8 | 0 | 0.56 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| BOS E. Lindholm | 1.8 | 1 | 0.58 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| TOR M. Knies | 1.7 | 6 | 0.53 | 5 | 22% | 3 |
| BOS P. Zacha | 1.7 | 0 | 0.59 | 2 | 20% | 0 |
| BOS C. McAvoy | 1.7 | 1 | 0.50 | 1 | 9% | 0 |
| TOR M. Domi | 1.6 | 0 | 0.51 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| BOS J. Brazeau | 1.5 | 2 | 0.40 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| TOR N. Robertson | 1.5 | 1 | 0.36 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| BOS T. Frederic | 1.4 | 3 | 0.38 | 1 | 17% | 1 |
| TOR O. Ekman-Larsson | 1.4 | 0 | 0.34 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| BOS C. Coyle | 1.4 | 2 | 0.46 | 1 | 18% | 0 |
| BOS O. Wahlstrom | 1.3 | 2 | 0.23 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| TOR P. Myers | 1.3 | 2 | 0.19 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| BOS N. Zadorov | 1.2 | 1 | 0.28 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| BOS M. Kastelic | 1.1 | 1 | 0.23 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| TOR D. Kampf | 1.1 | 0 | 0.28 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| BOS J. Oesterle | 1.0 | 1 | 0.19 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| BOS C. Koepke | 1.0 | 0 | 0.23 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| BOS M. Lohrei | 1.0 | 2 | 0.38 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| BOS B. Carlo | 1.0 | 1 | 0.17 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| TOR J. McCabe | 1.0 | 3 | 0.30 | 2 | 5% | 1 |
| TOR C. Dewar | 0.9 | 0 | 0.18 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| BOS A. Peeke | 0.9 | 2 | 0.17 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| TOR S. Lorentz | 0.8 | 0 | 0.17 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| TOR S. Benoit | 0.7 | 2 | 0.10 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
| BOS J. Beecher | 0.7 | 1 | 0.19 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| TOR C. Tanev | 0.6 | 0 | 0.22 | 1 | 3% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 19 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.