Game Recap: BOS 5, TOR 3, November 8, 2025

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Game Recap

BOS5

FinalSat, Nov 8, 2025Every game that night

TOR3

BOS beat TOR 5-3, with the chances close: 3.84 expected goals to 4.08. M. Geekie led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). D. Pastrnak had 7 shots on goal against our projection of 3.5. J. Swayman stopped 30 of 33.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
BOS	2	2	1	5
TOR	2	1	0	3

1st 3:12TORN. RobertsonPP0.12 xG
1st 3:30BOSM. Geekie0.20 xG
1st 3:50BOSV. Arvidsson0.20 xG
1st 13:03TORM. Maccelli0.13 xG
2nd 2:15BOSM. EyssimontPP0.51 xG
2nd 4:41BOSD. Pastrnak0.22 xG
2nd 16:51TORJ. TavaresPP0.15 xG
3rd 16:58BOSF. Minten0.15 xG

Team Stats

BOSTOR

39Shots on goal33

3.84Expected goals4.08

67Shot attempts64

345v5 shots on goal25

1/1Power play2/4

22Hits26

12Blocked shots10

15Penalty minutes9

21Giveaways25

4Takeaways6

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

BOS 3.84 xGTOR 4.08 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

BOS39 on goal, 5 scored

TOR32 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

BOS Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Geekie	C	1	1	2	3	1	0	+2	0	14:29	0:57
D. Pastrnak	RW	1	0	1	7	1	0	+2	0	18:27	1:48
M. Kastelic	C	0	1	1	0	3	2	+1	0	15:15	0:00
F. Minten	C	1	0	1	2	0	1	0	0	14:53	0:00
M. Khusnutdinov	C	0	1	1	2	0	0	+2	0	14:43	0:52
V. Arvidsson	LW	1	0	1	5	0	0	+1	0	13:48	0:55
M. Eyssimont	C	1	0	1	3	1	0	-1	4	11:26	0:51
S. Kuraly	C	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	0	17:10	0:00
P. Zacha	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	+1	0	15:26	0:56
A. Steeves	C	0	0	0	1	5	0	+1	0	13:22	0:53
T. Jeannot	LW	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	2	12:16	0:00
J. Viel	LW	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	10:39	0:00
M. Lohrei	D	0	2	2	1	1	1	+2	0	14:49	0:55
H. Lindholm	D	0	1	1	2	0	2	+1	2	22:27	0:53
A. Peeke	D	0	0	0	1	0	3	0	0	23:13	0:00
N. Zadorov	D	0	0	0	3	2	0	0	5	22:05	0:00
H. Jokiharju	D	0	0	0	3	0	2	+1	2	20:32	0:00
J. Aspirot	D	0	0	0	1	4	0	+2	0	15:24	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Swayman	33	30	3	.909	60:00	Win
J. Korpisalo	0	0	0	–	0:00

TOR Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
W. Nylander	RW	0	1	1	2	0	1	0	0	22:39	5:35
J. Tavares	C	1	0	1	4	0	0	-1	0	19:16	5:39
N. Roy	C	0	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	16:24	2:44
N. Robertson	LW	1	0	1	3	2	0	-2	0	15:56	1:51
M. Domi	C	0	1	1	3	2	0	0	2	13:28	3:32
M. Maccelli	LW	1	0	1	2	0	0	0	0	13:09	2:02
A. Matthews	C	0	0	0	4	0	3	0	0	23:40	5:20
M. Knies	LW	0	0	0	3	5	0	0	0	21:45	5:35
D. Joshua	C	0	0	0	2	1	1	-2	0	13:57	0:00
B. McMann	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	-1	7	10:54	0:00
S. Lorentz	C	0	0	0	0	3	1	-2	0	10:05	0:00
S. Laughton	C	0	0	0	1	4	1	-1	0	6:13	0:00
M. Rielly	D	0	2	2	1	0	0	-1	0	24:37	2:19
O. Ekman-Larsson	D	0	1	1	1	4	0	0	0	24:58	5:17
J. McCabe	D	0	0	0	2	3	2	+1	0	21:12	0:06
B. Carlo	D	0	0	0	2	0	1	-2	0	18:29	0:00
P. Myers	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	-2	0	11:15	0:00
S. Benoit	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	-2	0	11:04	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
A. Stolarz	19	15	4	.789	24:41	Loss
D. Hildeby	20	19	1	.950	32:30

Lines at 5-on-5

BOS

Line 1D. Pastrnak14:41M. Geekie13:32M. Khusnutdinov13:13

Line 2V. Arvidsson12:39A. Steeves12:29P. Zacha11:49

Line 3S. Kuraly11:12J. Viel10:38M. Eyssimont9:51

Line 4F. Minten11:21T. Jeannot10:41M. Kastelic11:03

Pair 1H. Jokiharju17:49N. Zadorov16:36

Pair 2H. Lindholm17:07A. Peeke16:56

Pair 3J. Aspirot13:39M. Lohrei13:39

TOR

Line 1A. Matthews15:42M. Knies14:02W. Nylander15:07

Line 2N. Roy13:08M. Maccelli11:07D. Joshua13:05

Line 3J. Tavares12:08N. Robertson13:31B. McMann10:53

Line 4M. Domi9:46S. Lorentz9:12S. Laughton5:47

Pair 1M. Rielly20:30B. Carlo17:07

Pair 2O. Ekman-Larsson18:17J. McCabe19:01

Pair 3P. Myers10:21S. Benoit10:11

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamFraser Minten BOS Faces TOR, his team until Jan 20251 G, 2 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	BOS 2.9, TOR 3.3	BOS 5, TOR 3
Total goals	6.2	8
Shots on goal	BOS 25.8, TOR 28.5	BOS 39, TOR 33
Win chance	TOR 57%	BOS won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
TOR A. Matthews	4.1	4	1.21	0	45%	0
BOS D. Pastrnak	3.5	7	1.18	1	39%	1
TOR W. Nylander	2.8	2	1.15	1	37%	0
TOR J. Tavares	2.6	4	0.90	1	32%	1
BOS V. Arvidsson	2.4	5	0.57	1	22%	1
TOR M. Knies	2.2	3	0.86	0	29%	0
BOS M. Geekie	2.0	3	0.73	2	28%	1
TOR B. McMann	2.0	1	0.44	0	21%	0
TOR N. Robertson	2.0	3	0.49	1	22%	1
BOS M. Eyssimont	1.9	3	0.27	1	11%	1
TOR M. Rielly	1.6	1	0.64	2	10%	0
BOS P. Zacha	1.5	1	0.63	0	18%	0
BOS M. Kastelic	1.4	0	0.27	1	13%	0
BOS H. Lindholm	1.4	2	0.38	1	8%	0
TOR M. Maccelli	1.4	2	0.50	1	15%	1
TOR P. Myers	1.4	0	0.16	0	5%	0
TOR M. Domi	1.4	3	0.47	1	13%	0
BOS S. Kuraly	1.4	2	0.27	0	12%	0
TOR N. Roy	1.3	1	0.44	1	17%	0
TOR O. Ekman-Larsson	1.3	1	0.43	1	7%	0
BOS F. Minten	1.3	2	0.28	1	13%	1
TOR S. Laughton	1.3	1	0.36	0	13%	0
BOS N. Zadorov	1.2	3	0.30	0	9%	0
TOR B. Carlo	1.2	2	0.18	0	4%	0
BOS A. Peeke	1.1	1	0.23	0	4%	0
BOS T. Jeannot	1.1	2	0.28	0	13%	0
TOR D. Joshua	1.1	2	0.37	0	17%	0
BOS M. Lohrei	1.1	1	0.36	2	7%	0
TOR S. Lorentz	1.0	0	0.25	0	9%	0
BOS J. Viel	1.0	0	0.14	0	8%	0
TOR J. McCabe	1.0	2	0.38	0	6%	0
BOS A. Steeves	0.9	1	0.21	0	8%	0
BOS H. Jokiharju	0.9	3	0.21	0	5%	0
BOS M. Khusnutdinov	0.8	2	0.25	1	11%	0
BOS J. Aspirot	0.8	1	0.14	0	4%	0
TOR S. Benoit	0.7	1	0.14	0	3%	0

Shots on goal: 23 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.4 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.