Game Recap: BOS 2, UTA 3, October 19, 2025

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Game Recap

BOS2

FinalSun, Oct 19, 2025Every game that night

UTA3

UTA beat BOS 3-2, and the chances backed it up: 2.86 expected goals to 1.53. D. Pastrnak led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). T. Jeannot had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 0.9. V. Vanecek stopped 24 of 26.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
BOS	1	1	0	2
UTA	1	1	1	3

1st 4:20UTAL. CooleyPP0.15 xG
1st 14:38BOSD. PastrnakPP0.17 xG
2nd 5:46BOSD. Pastrnak0.15 xG
2nd 15:57UTAC. Keller0.34 xG
3rd 10:37UTAD. Guenther0.11 xG

Team Stats

BOSUTA

26Shots on goal27

1.53Expected goals2.86

54Shot attempts58

145v5 shots on goal21

1/4Power play1/5

24Hits23

19Blocked shots21

17Penalty minutes15

18Giveaways19

8Takeaways3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

BOS 1.53 xGUTA 2.86 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

BOS26 on goal, 2 scored

UTA26 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

BOS Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
D. Pastrnak	RW	2	0	2	5	4	0	0	2	22:10	6:00
P. Zacha	C	0	1	1	0	3	0	0	0	19:29	5:15
M. Khusnutdinov	C	0	1	1	3	0	0	0	0	11:09	1:55
M. Geekie	C	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	20:27	5:09
E. Lindholm	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	2	19:40	5:09
S. Kuraly	C	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	13:46	0:02
V. Arvidsson	LW	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	12:46	1:43
T. Jeannot	LW	0	0	0	4	2	1	0	2	11:56	0:16
F. Minten	C	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	0	11:49	0:03
J. Beecher	C	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	11:34	0:17
M. Kastelic	C	0	0	0	1	2	1	0	5	10:57	0:00
M. Eyssimont	C	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	10:04	0:57
C. McAvoy	D	0	1	1	3	0	4	0	0	26:23	4:34
N. Zadorov	D	0	0	0	0	4	3	0	4	20:44	0:18
M. Lohrei	D	0	0	0	1	0	3	-1	0	18:26	2:31
H. Jokiharju	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	-1	2	17:41	1:27
J. Harris	D	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	15:54	0:16
A. Peeke	D	0	0	0	1	2	2	0	0	15:26	0:08

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Korpisalo	27	24	3	.889	58:49	Loss
J. Swayman	0	0	0	–	0:00

UTA Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
N. Schmaltz	C	0	2	2	1	0	2	0	0	22:50	6:04
C. Keller	RW	1	1	2	2	0	0	0	0	19:08	6:31
D. Guenther	RW	1	0	1	2	1	0	+1	2	18:14	6:06
L. Cooley	C	1	0	1	3	1	0	+1	0	17:25	6:10
J. Peterka	RW	0	1	1	1	0	1	+1	2	13:44	2:19
K. Stenlund	C	0	0	0	1	1	2	0	0	15:42	0:00
B. Hayton	C	0	0	0	2	0	0	-1	2	15:22	3:07
L. Crouse	LW	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	14:45	2:25
J. McBain	C	0	0	0	3	2	1	0	0	13:46	2:19
B. Tanev	LW	0	0	0	2	8	0	0	2	12:27	0:00
M. Carcone	LW	0	0	0	3	2	2	0	0	8:17	0:00
L. O'Brien	C	0	0	0	1	2	1	0	5	7:46	0:00
I. Cole	D	0	1	1	0	0	4	+1	0	19:02	0:00
M. Sergachev	D	0	0	0	2	1	3	+1	2	25:07	5:53
J. Marino	D	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	22:25	0:19
N. Schmidt	D	0	0	0	2	3	1	+2	0	21:42	2:57
D. Simashev	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	-1	0	15:06	0:00
O. Maatta	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	-1	0	8:05	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
V. Vanecek	26	24	2	.923	59:55	Win
K. Vejmelka	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

BOS

Line 1D. Pastrnak14:15M. Geekie13:31E. Lindholm12:49

Line 2T. Jeannot10:41F. Minten10:10M. Eyssimont9:07

Line 3V. Arvidsson9:48M. Khusnutdinov8:58P. Zacha9:44

Line 4S. Kuraly8:21J. Beecher8:03M. Kastelic6:32

Pair 1C. McAvoy14:16M. Lohrei14:55

Pair 2N. Zadorov15:52H. Jokiharju12:56

Pair 3A. Peeke11:13J. Harris12:19

UTA

Line 1C. Keller11:20B. Hayton11:48N. Schmaltz11:28

Line 2J. Peterka11:25L. Cooley9:55D. Guenther11:07

Line 3K. Stenlund11:21B. Tanev10:12L. O'Brien7:46

Line 4L. Crouse9:02J. McBain8:27M. Carcone8:17

Pair 1N. Schmidt14:09J. Marino17:16

Pair 2M. Sergachev15:18D. Simashev13:42

Pair 3I. Cole12:56O. Maatta8:01

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamJJ Peterka BOS First game back in Salt Lake City, his team until May 20261 A, 1 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	BOS 2.7, UTA 3.5	BOS 2, UTA 3
Total goals	6.2	5
Shots on goal	BOS 23.1, UTA 30.8	BOS 26, UTA 27
Win chance	UTA 64%	UTA won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
BOS D. Pastrnak	3.2	5	1.07	2	37%	2
UTA D. Guenther	3.2	2	0.88	1	31%	1
UTA C. Keller	2.7	2	1.05	2	32%	1
UTA N. Schmaltz	2.4	1	0.82	2	25%	0
UTA J. Peterka	2.3	1	0.74	1	26%	0
UTA L. Cooley	2.2	3	0.84	1	28%	1
UTA B. Hayton	1.9	2	0.53	0	19%	0
BOS V. Arvidsson	1.9	0	0.42	0	17%	0
BOS E. Lindholm	1.8	1	0.56	0	21%	0
UTA M. Sergachev	1.8	2	0.69	0	12%	0
BOS M. Geekie	1.7	0	0.67	0	25%	0
BOS M. Eyssimont	1.7	1	0.25	0	11%	0
BOS C. McAvoy	1.7	3	0.51	1	11%	0
UTA L. Crouse	1.7	1	0.36	0	19%	0
UTA J. McBain	1.4	3	0.42	0	16%	0
UTA K. Stenlund	1.4	1	0.35	0	16%	0
BOS P. Zacha	1.3	0	0.58	1	18%	0
UTA M. Carcone	1.3	3	0.35	0	17%	0
UTA N. Schmidt	1.3	2	0.36	0	7%	0
BOS S. Kuraly	1.2	0	0.25	0	11%	0
BOS N. Zadorov	1.2	0	0.27	0	9%	0
UTA D. Simashev	1.2	1	0.13	0	4%	0
BOS M. Kastelic	1.1	1	0.24	0	11%	0
UTA L. O'Brien	1.1	1	0.17	0	7%	0
BOS F. Minten	1.1	2	0.20	0	12%	0
BOS M. Lohrei	1.1	1	0.30	0	6%	0
BOS A. Peeke	1.0	1	0.17	0	3%	0
BOS H. Jokiharju	1.0	1	0.20	0	4%	0
BOS T. Jeannot	0.9	4	0.22	0	11%	0
UTA B. Tanev	0.9	2	0.22	0	11%	0
UTA J. Marino	0.8	0	0.33	0	4%	0
UTA I. Cole	0.7	0	0.20	1	3%	0
UTA O. Maatta	0.7	0	0.19	0	3%	0
BOS J. Beecher	0.7	2	0.16	0	9%	0
BOS M. Khusnutdinov	0.6	3	0.20	1	9%	0
BOS J. Harris	0.6	1	0.17	0	4%	0

Shots on goal: 20 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.