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Game Recap
BOS1
VGK5
VGK beat BOS 5-1, and the chances backed it up: 3.14 expected goals to 1.35. VGK outshot BOS 32 to 19. P. Dorofeyev scored three for VGK. M. Geekie had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.9. A. Hill stopped 18 of 19.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| VGK | 0 | 2 | 3 | 5 |
- 2nd 9:19VGKP. DorofeyevPP0.09 xG
- 2nd 19:10VGKP. Dorofeyev0.11 xG
- 3rd 5:47VGKB. Howden0.10 xG
- 3rd 10:21VGKP. Dorofeyev0.25 xG
- 3rd 14:24VGKI. Barbashev0.28 xG
- 3rd 17:49BOSM. Geekie0.12 xG
Team Stats
BOSVGK
19Shots on goal32
1.35Expected goals3.14
48Shot attempts57
175v5 shots on goal24
0/1Power play1/3
29Hits16
12Blocked shots15
6Penalty minutes2
12Giveaways17
4Takeaways5
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
BOS 1.35 xGVGK 3.14 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
BOS Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D. Pastrnak | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19:34 | 1:35 |
| M. Geekie | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 18:47 | 1:35 |
| P. Zacha | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 18:08 | 0:25 |
| C. Mittelstadt | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 16:55 | 1:28 |
| E. Lindholm | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 15:28 | 1:35 |
| C. Koepke | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:44 | 0:00 |
| M. Khusnutdinov | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 13:22 | 0:32 |
| V. Lettieri | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 13:21 | 0:25 |
| J. Lauko | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 12:34 | 0:00 |
| P. Brown | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 12:17 | 0:00 |
| J. Beecher | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 2 | 11:55 | 0:00 |
| M. Kastelic | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 10:47 | 0:00 |
| H. Jokiharju | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 23:03 | 0:25 |
| N. Zadorov | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 21:55 | 0:00 |
| A. Peeke | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 20:18 | 0:00 |
| M. Lohrei | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 20:16 | 1:35 |
| P. Wotherspoon | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 17:22 | 0:00 |
| I. Mitchell | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 15:48 | 0:25 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Swayman | 32 | 27 | 5 | .844 | 60:00 | Loss |
| J. Korpisalo | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
VGK Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P. Dorofeyev | RW | 3 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 13:31 | 2:09 |
| J. Eichel | C | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 15:11 | 2:09 |
| B. Saad | LW | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 13:20 | 0:00 |
| W. Karlsson | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 15:54 | 2:00 |
| I. Barbashev | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:26 | 2:15 |
| B. Howden | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 14:06 | 0:02 |
| N. Roy | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 18:56 | 2:17 |
| R. Smith | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 16:39 | 1:47 |
| M. Stone | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 15:08 | 2:09 |
| K. Kolesar | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15:08 | 0:01 |
| T. Pearson | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 14:36 | 0:16 |
| T. Hertl | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 13:49 | 2:09 |
| N. Hanifin | D | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 20:44 | 2:09 |
| A. Pietrangelo | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 21:16 | 1:56 |
| B. McNabb | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 19:06 | 0:30 |
| K. Korczak | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:28 | 0:21 |
| N. Hague | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | +2 | 0 | 18:26 | 0:00 |
| Z. Whitecloud | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 18:16 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Hill | 19 | 18 | 1 | .947 | 60:00 | Win |
| I. Samsonov | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | BOS 2.6, VGK 3.3 | BOS 1, VGK 5 |
| Total goals | 5.9 | 6 |
| Shots on goal | BOS 24.4, VGK 31.3 | BOS 19, VGK 32 |
| Win chance | VGK 62% | VGK won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS D. Pastrnak | 3.8 | 2 | 1.12 | 1 | 40% | 0 |
| VGK J. Eichel | 3.1 | 0 | 1.04 | 2 | 30% | 0 |
| VGK P. Dorofeyev | 2.7 | 5 | 0.62 | 3 | 28% | 3 |
| VGK W. Karlsson | 2.2 | 2 | 0.62 | 1 | 22% | 0 |
| VGK T. Hertl | 2.1 | 2 | 0.69 | 0 | 25% | 0 |
| VGK M. Stone | 2.0 | 3 | 0.93 | 0 | 27% | 0 |
| BOS M. Geekie | 1.9 | 5 | 0.57 | 1 | 24% | 1 |
| VGK N. Hanifin | 1.8 | 1 | 0.54 | 2 | 11% | 0 |
| BOS E. Lindholm | 1.8 | 1 | 0.54 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| VGK B. Saad | 1.7 | 3 | 0.47 | 2 | 21% | 0 |
| VGK A. Pietrangelo | 1.6 | 1 | 0.44 | 1 | 7% | 0 |
| BOS P. Zacha | 1.6 | 0 | 0.62 | 1 | 20% | 0 |
| VGK R. Smith | 1.5 | 3 | 0.48 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| VGK I. Barbashev | 1.5 | 2 | 0.63 | 1 | 22% | 1 |
| VGK B. Howden | 1.4 | 2 | 0.39 | 1 | 17% | 1 |
| BOS V. Lettieri | 1.3 | 1 | 0.26 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| VGK T. Pearson | 1.3 | 2 | 0.31 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| VGK N. Hague | 1.3 | 0 | 0.21 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| VGK N. Roy | 1.3 | 2 | 0.44 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| BOS N. Zadorov | 1.2 | 1 | 0.26 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| BOS M. Lohrei | 1.2 | 1 | 0.40 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| BOS C. Mittelstadt | 1.2 | 0 | 0.53 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| BOS C. Koepke | 1.2 | 1 | 0.23 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| VGK K. Kolesar | 1.1 | 0 | 0.35 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| VGK Z. Whitecloud | 1.1 | 1 | 0.27 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| BOS A. Peeke | 1.0 | 2 | 0.21 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| VGK B. McNabb | 1.0 | 2 | 0.27 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| BOS M. Kastelic | 1.0 | 0 | 0.19 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| BOS H. Jokiharju | 0.9 | 2 | 0.19 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| VGK K. Korczak | 0.9 | 1 | 0.24 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
| BOS J. Lauko | 0.8 | 1 | 0.23 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| BOS P. Wotherspoon | 0.7 | 0 | 0.16 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
| BOS P. Brown | 0.7 | 0 | 0.15 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| BOS M. Khusnutdinov | 0.7 | 2 | 0.21 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| BOS I. Mitchell | 0.6 | 0 | 0.17 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
| BOS J. Beecher | 0.5 | 0 | 0.16 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 22 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.