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Game Recap
BOS1
WSH3
WSH beat BOS 3-1, and the chances backed it up: 4.55 expected goals to 3.26. A. Protas led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). A. Protas had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.7. L. Thompson stopped 26 of 27.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| WSH | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
- 1st 1:21BOSJ. Brazeau0.19 xG
- 1st 12:05WSHA. Protas0.17 xG
- 1st 17:11WSHJ. ChychrunPP0.11 xG
- 3rd 19:51WSHA. ProtasEN0.86 xG
Team Stats
BOSWSH
27Shots on goal27
3.26Expected goals4.55
83Shot attempts66
235v5 shots on goal16
0/2Power play1/2
16Hits26
20Blocked shots28
10Penalty minutes10
19Giveaways16
0Takeaways3
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
BOS 3.26 xGWSH 4.55 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
BOS Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Brazeau | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 16:04 | 2:15 |
| E. Lindholm | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 20:18 | 1:40 |
| D. Pastrnak | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 19:17 | 2:52 |
| P. Zacha | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 18:46 | 2:50 |
| B. Marchand | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 17:57 | 1:45 |
| M. Geekie | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17:13 | 2:15 |
| C. Coyle | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 17:05 | 1:10 |
| T. Frederic | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | +1 | 0 | 15:36 | 0:58 |
| C. Koepke | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 11:38 | 0:00 |
| J. Beecher | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 9:44 | 0:00 |
| M. Kastelic | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 8:44 | 0:00 |
| M. McLaughlin | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 8:31 | 0:00 |
| P. Wotherspoon | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 21:28 | 0:10 |
| C. McAvoy | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | -1 | 2 | 23:29 | 1:24 |
| M. Lohrei | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -1 | 0 | 22:15 | 2:26 |
| A. Peeke | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 19:10 | 0:00 |
| B. Carlo | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 2 | 16:42 | 0:05 |
| N. Zadorov | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 13:38 | 0:10 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Swayman | 26 | 24 | 2 | .923 | 58:10 | Loss |
| J. Korpisalo | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
WSH Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T. Wilson | RW | 0 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 2 | +2 | 0 | 18:58 | 1:17 |
| A. Protas | LW | 2 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 17:38 | 0:14 |
| P. Dubois | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 16:48 | 0:42 |
| D. Strome | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 16:15 | 1:33 |
| N. Dowd | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 15:57 | 0:00 |
| A. Ovechkin | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16:14 | 2:15 |
| B. Duhaime | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14:34 | 0:00 |
| C. McMichael | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 14:25 | 0:44 |
| T. Raddysh | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 12:10 | 0:00 |
| L. Eller | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 11:58 | 0:00 |
| I. Miroshnichenko | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 10:08 | 0:00 |
| A. Mangiapane | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 9:45 | 0:48 |
| J. Carlson | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 24:55 | 1:40 |
| J. Chychrun | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 2 | +2 | 2 | 20:53 | 1:13 |
| R. Sandin | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 21:29 | 0:49 |
| M. Roy | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 19:51 | 0:00 |
| T. van Riemsdyk | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 18:07 | 0:00 |
| M. Fehérváry | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 14:10 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| L. Thompson | 27 | 26 | 1 | .963 | 59:45 | Win |
| C. Lindgren | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | BOS 2.9, WSH 2.9 | BOS 1, WSH 3 |
| Total goals | 5.8 | 4 |
| Shots on goal | BOS 26.5, WSH 26.7 | BOS 27, WSH 27 |
| Win chance | BOS 50% | WSH won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS D. Pastrnak | 3.3 | 5 | 0.97 | 0 | 36% | 0 |
| WSH A. Ovechkin | 2.8 | 3 | 0.80 | 0 | 33% | 0 |
| BOS B. Marchand | 2.2 | 3 | 0.78 | 0 | 27% | 0 |
| WSH C. McMichael | 2.1 | 2 | 0.56 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| WSH T. Wilson | 2.1 | 5 | 0.59 | 2 | 26% | 0 |
| WSH J. Chychrun | 2.0 | 4 | 0.50 | 1 | 13% | 1 |
| WSH J. Carlson | 1.9 | 0 | 0.56 | 1 | 11% | 0 |
| WSH D. Strome | 1.8 | 0 | 0.85 | 1 | 26% | 0 |
| BOS M. Geekie | 1.8 | 4 | 0.51 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| WSH A. Protas | 1.7 | 5 | 0.55 | 2 | 16% | 2 |
| BOS P. Zacha | 1.7 | 0 | 0.63 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| WSH P. Dubois | 1.7 | 0 | 0.63 | 1 | 21% | 0 |
| BOS C. McAvoy | 1.6 | 1 | 0.44 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| BOS E. Lindholm | 1.6 | 2 | 0.56 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| BOS C. Coyle | 1.4 | 0 | 0.49 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| BOS J. Brazeau | 1.3 | 2 | 0.39 | 1 | 17% | 1 |
| BOS T. Frederic | 1.3 | 1 | 0.37 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| WSH M. Roy | 1.3 | 0 | 0.28 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| BOS N. Zadorov | 1.3 | 1 | 0.28 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| WSH L. Eller | 1.3 | 2 | 0.30 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| WSH A. Mangiapane | 1.2 | 0 | 0.40 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| WSH T. Raddysh | 1.2 | 0 | 0.30 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| WSH B. Duhaime | 1.2 | 0 | 0.22 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| BOS M. Kastelic | 1.2 | 0 | 0.26 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| WSH N. Dowd | 1.1 | 2 | 0.36 | 1 | 18% | 0 |
| BOS M. McLaughlin | 1.0 | 0 | 0.24 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| BOS C. Koepke | 1.0 | 2 | 0.26 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| BOS B. Carlo | 1.0 | 1 | 0.17 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| WSH T. Riemsdyk | 1.0 | 0 | 0.22 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| WSH I. Miroshnichenko | 1.0 | 0 | 0.22 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| WSH R. Sandin | 0.9 | 3 | 0.35 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| BOS M. Lohrei | 0.9 | 2 | 0.35 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| BOS A. Peeke | 0.9 | 1 | 0.15 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| WSH M. Fehérváry | 0.9 | 1 | 0.21 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| BOS P. Wotherspoon | 0.7 | 1 | 0.13 | 1 | 2% | 0 |
| BOS J. Beecher | 0.7 | 1 | 0.21 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 18 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.