Game Recap: BOS 3, WSH 1, October 8, 2025

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Game Recap

BOS3

FinalWed, Oct 8, 2025Every game that night

WSH1

BOS beat WSH 3-1 despite fewer good chances: 2.21 expected goals to 4.01. WSH outshot BOS 36 to 22. D. Pastrnak led the way with 3 points (1 G, 2 A). J. Swayman stopped 35 of 36.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
BOS	0	1	2	3
WSH	0	0	1	1

2nd 12:07BOSD. Pastrnak0.03 xG
3rd 7:03WSHT. Wilson0.17 xG
3rd 7:41BOSE. LindholmPP0.16 xG
3rd 19:02BOSM. GeekieEN0.58 xG

Team Stats

BOSWSH

22Shots on goal36

2.21Expected goals4.01

52Shot attempts81

185v5 shots on goal22

1/2Power play0/5

33Hits35

23Blocked shots11

10Penalty minutes4

19Giveaways14

3Takeaways3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

BOS 2.21 xGWSH 4.01 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

BOS20 on goal, 3 scored

WSH36 on goal, 1 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

BOS Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
D. Pastrnak	RW	1	2	3	3	2	0	+2	2	18:18	1:43
E. Lindholm	C	1	1	2	3	5	1	+2	0	18:07	1:13
M. Geekie	C	1	1	2	1	2	1	+2	0	17:07	1:07
P. Zacha	C	0	1	1	2	2	1	-1	0	16:54	1:46
F. Minten	C	0	0	0	0	2	2	0	0	14:36	0:00
S. Kuraly	C	0	0	0	3	2	0	0	2	14:34	0:00
T. Jeannot	LW	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	13:52	0:00
M. Kastelic	C	0	0	0	2	2	1	0	2	12:08	0:00
C. Mittelstadt	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	12:06	1:16
V. Arvidsson	LW	0	0	0	1	1	0	-1	0	11:50	1:10
M. Eyssimont	C	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	10:55	0:00
M. Khusnutdinov	C	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	10:49	0:38
N. Zadorov	D	0	1	1	1	3	3	+2	0	21:59	0:00
C. McAvoy	D	0	0	0	0	7	1	0	2	22:31	1:45
H. Lindholm	D	0	0	0	1	0	3	-1	0	20:01	0:40
A. Peeke	D	0	0	0	0	1	5	0	0	18:59	0:00
H. Jokiharju	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	+1	2	18:40	0:00
M. Lohrei	D	0	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	16:34	0:37

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Swayman	36	35	1	.972	60:00	Win
J. Korpisalo	0	0	0	–	0:00

WSH Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
T. Wilson	RW	1	0	1	3	5	0	-1	0	22:15	5:07
A. Protas	LW	0	1	1	3	0	0	+1	0	19:17	3:50
A. Ovechkin	LW	0	0	0	3	2	0	-1	0	18:16	6:22
D. Strome	C	0	0	0	1	0	1	-1	0	18:12	5:16
P. Dubois	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	-1	0	18:05	3:50
C. McMichael	LW	0	0	0	3	1	0	-1	0	15:35	3:41
A. Beauvillier	RW	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	13:14	0:01
R. Leonard	RW	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	0	13:13	2:43
N. Dowd	C	0	0	0	3	5	0	0	0	12:22	0:00
J. Sourdif	C	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	10:58	0:00
H. Lapierre	C	0	0	0	0	4	0	0	0	10:56	0:09
B. Duhaime	LW	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	10:12	0:00
J. Chychrun	D	0	1	1	4	1	0	0	0	24:46	5:25
J. Carlson	D	0	0	0	2	0	5	-1	2	26:39	5:23
M. Fehérváry	D	0	0	0	1	4	2	-1	0	18:27	0:00
M. Roy	D	0	0	0	2	3	2	0	0	17:35	0:00
R. Sandin	D	0	0	0	2	3	1	0	0	16:36	3:43
T. van Riemsdyk	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	2	12:32	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
L. Thompson	21	19	2	.905	58:27	Loss
C. Lindgren	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

BOS

Line 1E. Lindholm15:21D. Pastrnak15:47M. Geekie15:12

Line 2P. Zacha11:14C. Mittelstadt10:47V. Arvidsson10:15

Line 3M. Kastelic10:20M. Khusnutdinov10:11S. Kuraly10:32

Line 4M. Eyssimont10:00F. Minten10:18T. Jeannot10:36

Pair 1H. Jokiharju18:24N. Zadorov16:42

Pair 2C. McAvoy16:07M. Lohrei15:57

Pair 3H. Lindholm14:02A. Peeke13:05

WSH

Line 1T. Wilson14:37P. Dubois13:05A. Protas14:18

Line 2A. Ovechkin11:06D. Strome11:23C. McMichael10:30

Line 3A. Beauvillier12:55H. Lapierre10:47R. Leonard10:30

Line 4N. Dowd11:17B. Duhaime9:11J. Sourdif10:58

Pair 1J. Carlson18:41M. Fehérváry17:22

Pair 2J. Chychrun17:09T. Riemsdyk12:32

Pair 3M. Roy16:14R. Sandin12:15

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	BOS 2.8, WSH 3.1	BOS 3, WSH 1
Total goals	5.9	4
Shots on goal	BOS 24.7, WSH 27.4	BOS 22, WSH 36
Win chance	WSH 57%	BOS won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
WSH A. Ovechkin	3.5	3	0.93	0	38%	0
BOS D. Pastrnak	3.4	3	1.09	3	38%	1
WSH J. Chychrun	2.6	4	0.64	1	18%	0
WSH T. Wilson	2.2	3	0.75	1	29%	1
WSH J. Carlson	2.1	2	0.66	0	11%	0
WSH C. McMichael	2.0	3	0.58	0	23%	0
BOS M. Geekie	1.9	1	0.68	2	26%	1
WSH A. Protas	1.9	3	0.71	1	22%	0
WSH D. Strome	1.9	1	0.87	0	26%	0
BOS E. Lindholm	1.9	3	0.56	2	21%	1
BOS C. McAvoy	1.9	0	0.52	0	12%	0
WSH A. Beauvillier	1.8	1	0.33	0	14%	0
BOS M. Eyssimont	1.8	3	0.23	0	10%	0
BOS V. Arvidsson	1.8	1	0.38	0	16%	0
WSH P. Dubois	1.8	1	0.65	0	21%	0
WSH R. Leonard	1.4	3	0.19	0	10%	0
WSH M. Roy	1.4	2	0.38	0	6%	0
BOS P. Zacha	1.4	2	0.55	1	17%	0
BOS H. Lindholm	1.4	1	0.31	0	7%	0
BOS C. Mittelstadt	1.4	0	0.55	0	18%	0
BOS N. Zadorov	1.4	1	0.28	1	9%	0
BOS M. Lohrei	1.3	0	0.37	0	8%	0
BOS S. Kuraly	1.2	3	0.23	0	11%	0
BOS H. Jokiharju	1.2	0	0.25	0	6%	0
BOS F. Minten	1.2	0	0.23	0	13%	0
BOS A. Peeke	1.1	0	0.19	0	4%	0
WSH B. Duhaime	1.1	1	0.27	0	12%	0
WSH R. Sandin	1.1	2	0.37	0	6%	0
WSH N. Dowd	1.1	3	0.33	0	16%	0
BOS M. Kastelic	1.0	2	0.19	0	9%	0
WSH M. Fehérváry	1.0	1	0.30	0	7%	0
WSH T. Riemsdyk	0.8	1	0.22	0	3%	0
BOS T. Jeannot	0.8	0	0.18	0	9%	0
BOS M. Khusnutdinov	0.8	2	0.24	0	11%	0
WSH H. Lapierre	0.7	0	0.29	0	9%	0

Shots on goal: 21 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.