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Game Recap
BUF7
FinalThu, Oct 29, 2026Every game that night
ANA6

BUF beat ANA 7-6, with the chances close: 3.42 expected goals to 3.45. T. Thompson scored three for BUF. C. Gauthier had 10 shots on goal against our projection of 3.1. C. Ellis stopped 29 of 35.

Scoring

1st2nd3rdT
BUF3227
ANA3036
  1. 1st 1:57ANAM. GranlundPP0.23 xG
  2. 1st 2:54ANAC. GauthierPP0.03 xG
  3. 1st 10:03BUFT. Kozak0.03 xG
  4. 1st 10:38ANAR. McQueen0.21 xG
  5. 1st 11:39BUFN. OstlundPP0.03 xG
  6. 1st 15:32BUFT. Thompson0.13 xG
  7. 2nd 18:36BUFT. Thompson0.08 xG
  8. 2nd 18:51BUFT. Thompson0.19 xG
  9. 3rd 1:57BUFJ. QuinnPP0.14 xG
  10. 3rd 6:37BUFZ. Benson0.18 xG
  11. 3rd 7:26ANAC. GauthierPP0.13 xG
  12. 3rd 18:52ANAT. Luneau0.15 xG
  13. 3rd 19:29ANAB. Sennecke0.08 xG

Team Stats

BUFANA
31Shots on goal35
3.42Expected goals3.45
51Shot attempts57
235v5 shots on goal17
2/3Power play3/4
27Hits27
9Blocked shots9
8Penalty minutes6
13Giveaways21
3Takeaways5

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

BUF 3.42 xGANA 3.45 xGGoal

00.511.522.533.51st2nd3rdANA goal, 1:57ANA goal, 2:54BUF goal, 10:03ANA goal, 10:38BUF goal, 11:39BUF goal, 15:32BUF goal, 18:36BUF goal, 18:51BUF goal, 1:57BUF goal, 6:37ANA goal, 7:26ANA goal, 18:52ANA goal, 19:29

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

BUF30 on goal, 7 scored
ANA34 on goal, 6 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

BUF Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
T. ThompsonC325410+3017:492:59
Z. BensonLW123321+3219:302:56
P. KrebsC033140+3015:550:00
N. OstlundC101500-1019:263:01
J. QuinnRW101410-1018:283:12
T. KozakC1011310212:140:00
S. CarrickC011030+108:450:00
J. DoanRW0003000014:000:00
J. NorrisC000020-1013:510:11
R. McLeodC000100-1013:450:13
B. MalenstynLW000030+1013:110:00
J. ZuckerLW000022-1011:040:16
R. DahlinD022420+3026:003:12
M. SamuelssonD011301+1025:270:00
O. ZellwegerD011010-1218:140:00
O. PowerD000212-1023:550:00
L. CrevierD000002+1012:390:00
D. GilbertD000020+1210:350:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
C. Ellis35296.82959:56Win
U. Luukkonen000–0:00

ANA Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
L. CarlssonC033500-1022:094:10
C. GauthierLW20210210022:184:10
B. SenneckeRW1122200221:134:10
M. GranlundC101200-1023:144:10
R. McQueenC1012200013:440:00
J. CaulfieldRW0110500013:380:46
S. ColangeloRW011200+1011:060:46
T. WasheC000112-1016:090:46
A. GreerLW0001500013:330:00
A. KillornLW000110+1013:000:46
F. VatranoRW0002100211:330:00
J. MalottLW000211-2010:480:00
J. LaCombeD022122-1029:364:10
T. LuneauD1013110021:570:46
N. JensenD0111100014:490:00
T. HindsD000011-3215:180:00
N. WarrenD000020-2014:450:00
T. MitchellD000001+1014:240:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
V. Husso31247.77453:34Loss
L. Dostal000–0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

BUF

Line 1J. Doan13:02N. Ostlund14:07J. Quinn12:57
Line 2P. Krebs12:55T. Thompson11:57Z. Benson11:54
Line 3J. Zucker10:48J. Norris9:58R. McLeod10:00
Line 4B. Malenstyn10:10T. Kozak9:39S. Carrick8:38
Pair 1M. Samuelsson17:28R. Dahlin19:41
Pair 2O. Zellweger16:46O. Power16:21
Pair 3D. Gilbert10:09L. Crevier10:20

ANA

Line 1T. Washe12:32A. Greer12:37C. Gauthier12:28
Line 2R. McQueen11:02F. Vatrano11:09S. Colangelo9:58
Line 3J. Caulfield11:17L. Carlsson11:22A. Killorn9:41
Line 4M. Granlund11:55J. Malott10:48B. Sennecke11:21
Pair 1T. Hinds15:14T. Luneau17:26
Pair 2J. LaCombe17:14N. Warren13:28
Pair 3N. Jensen13:44T. Mitchell13:34

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Prop Results

12 of 20 overs hit (60%).

PlayerLineOverUnderSOGResult
ANA C. Gauthier3.5+100-12510Over
BUF T. Thompson3.5+114-1354Over
ANA B. Sennecke2.5-110-1152Under
BUF J. Quinn2.5-114-1104Over
ANA L. Carlsson2.5+130-1605Over
BUF R. Dahlin2.5+100-1154Over
BUF Z. Benson2.5+135-1603Over
ANA A. Greer1.5+125-1701Under
ANA A. Killorn1.5-105-1151Under
ANA J. Caulfield1.5+145-1900Under
BUF J. Doan1.5-110-1053Over
ANA J. LaCombe1.5+105-1251Under
BUF J. Norris1.5+130-1450Under
BUF J. Zucker1.5-130+1050Under
ANA M. Granlund1.5-140+1182Over
BUF M. Samuelsson1.5+120-1653Over
BUF N. Ostlund1.5-115-1155Over
BUF O. Power1.5+115-1502Over
BUF O. Zellweger1.5-135+1050Under
ANA R. McQueen1.5+135-1802Over

Each player's main line (the one most books posted) at the last price before puck drop, the best price on each side there, and what he did.

Storylines That Played Out

  • Old teamOlen Zellweger BUF Faces ANA, his team until May 20261 A, 0 SOG
  • HometownJason Zucker BUF Plays near home (born in Newport Beach)0 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

We projectedIt finished
ScoreBUF 3.4, ANA 3.1BUF 7, ANA 6
Total goals6.513
Shots on goalBUF 27.2, ANA 28.7BUF 31, ANA 35
Win chanceBUF 54%BUF won

Players

PlayerSOG projectedSOGPoints projectedPointsGoal chanceGoals
BUF T. Thompson3.241.04539%3
ANA C. Gauthier3.1100.76229%2
BUF J. Quinn2.740.85128%1
BUF R. Dahlin2.640.95220%0
ANA B. Sennecke2.520.73228%1
ANA L. Carlsson2.450.85329%0
BUF Z. Benson2.330.84325%1
ANA M. Granlund2.020.84126%1
BUF J. Doan2.030.60023%0
BUF O. Zellweger1.900.38111%0
ANA A. Killorn1.710.46021%0
ANA A. Greer1.710.45019%0
ANA J. LaCombe1.710.77212%0
BUF N. Ostlund1.650.75125%1
BUF J. Zucker1.600.53021%0
ANA F. Vatrano1.620.35018%0
BUF O. Power1.620.65012%0
ANA J. Caulfield1.500.44118%0
ANA J. Malott1.420.29011%0
BUF J. Norris1.400.55024%0
BUF M. Samuelsson1.430.50112%0
ANA S. Colangelo1.220.32116%0
ANA T. Hinds1.100.1303%0
BUF P. Krebs1.110.51314%0
ANA T. Luneau1.130.3617%1
ANA T. Washe1.110.31015%0
ANA R. McQueen1.120.1719%1
ANA N. Warren1.100.3405%0
BUF R. McLeod1.010.52016%0
BUF L. Crevier0.900.1805%0
BUF B. Malenstyn0.800.2209%0
ANA T. Mitchell0.800.1905%0
BUF S. Carrick0.800.1717%0
ANA N. Jensen0.710.2414%0
BUF T. Kozak0.710.1819%1
BUF D. Gilbert0.400.1803%0

Shots on goal: 22 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.