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Game Recap
BUF4
CBJ6
CBJ beat BUF 6-4 despite fewer good chances: 1.72 expected goals to 2.43. K. Marchenko led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). I. Provorov had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 1.3. D. Tarasov stopped 20 of 24.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 0 | 3 | 1 | 4 |
| CBJ | 2 | 2 | 2 | 6 |
- 1st 5:12CBJE. ChinakhovPP0.09 xG
- 1st 19:28CBJK. Marchenko0.03 xG
- 2nd 9:34BUFR. McLeod0.16 xG
- 2nd 12:18CBJA. Fantilli0.17 xG
- 2nd 17:29BUFJ.Kulich0.10 xG
- 2nd 17:58CBJM. Olivier0.15 xG
- 2nd 19:35BUFO. Power0.15 xG
- 3rd 0:15CBJZ. Aston-Reese0.10 xG
- 3rd 8:10CBJD. Severson0.23 xG
- 3rd 17:51BUFJ. Peterka0.18 xG
Team Stats
BUFCBJ
24Shots on goal25
2.43Expected goals1.72
56Shot attempts42
155v5 shots on goal21
0/2Power play1/3
18Hits16
8Blocked shots17
6Penalty minutes4
13Giveaways14
6Takeaways7
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
BUF 2.43 xGCBJ 1.72 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
BUF Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Peterka | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20:51 | 2:11 |
| T. Thompson | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 20:42 | 2:27 |
| R. McLeod | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 16:54 | 0:00 |
| D. Cozens | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 2 | 16:47 | 2:24 |
| J. Zucker | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 16:43 | 2:13 |
| J. Greenway | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 14:46 | 0:00 |
| J.Kulich | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 14:45 | 1:47 |
| A. Tuch | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 2 | 17:42 | 1:34 |
| Z. Benson | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14:37 | 1:41 |
| P. Krebs | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 9:57 | 0:06 |
| S. Lafferty | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 9:37 | 0:00 |
| B. Malenstyn | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 8:59 | 0:00 |
| R. Dahlin | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 26:51 | 2:17 |
| O. Power | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 21:39 | 1:45 |
| H. Jokiharju | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 20:11 | 0:00 |
| B. Byram | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 21:24 | 1:35 |
| M. Samuelsson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 13:56 | 0:00 |
| C. Clifton | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 11:33 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D. Levi | 25 | 19 | 6 | .760 | 57:20 | Loss |
| U. Luukkonen | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
CBJ Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K. Marchenko | RW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19:58 | 2:28 |
| M. Olivier | RW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | +2 | 2 | 14:34 | 0:04 |
| E. Chinakhov | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 19:48 | 3:19 |
| A. Fantilli | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 17:49 | 1:31 |
| C. Sillinger | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 16:05 | 2:14 |
| Z. Aston-Reese | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 10:55 | 0:00 |
| K. Johnson | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6:26 | 1:51 |
| S. Monahan | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 22:29 | 3:13 |
| J. Danforth | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 16:38 | 1:21 |
| M. Pyyhtia | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 13:24 | 0:00 |
| S. Kuraly | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 10:42 | 0:06 |
| J. van Riemsdyk | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 9:15 | 1:23 |
| Z. Werenski | D | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 24:03 | 4:09 |
| J. Christiansen | D | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 15:26 | 0:00 |
| I. Provorov | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 2 | 23:30 | 0:38 |
| D. Severson | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | +4 | 0 | 21:39 | 1:33 |
| J. Johnson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16:59 | 0:00 |
| J. Harris | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -1 | 0 | 16:29 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D. Tarasov | 24 | 20 | 4 | .833 | 59:51 | Win |
| J. Greaves | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | BUF 3.5, CBJ 3.4 | BUF 4, CBJ 6 |
| Total goals | 6.9 | 10 |
| Shots on goal | BUF 33.0, CBJ 31.3 | BUF 24, CBJ 25 |
| Win chance | BUF 52% | CBJ won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF T. Thompson | 3.4 | 2 | 0.95 | 1 | 39% | 0 |
| CBJ Z. Werenski | 3.0 | 3 | 0.80 | 2 | 18% | 0 |
| BUF A. Tuch | 2.8 | 0 | 0.96 | 0 | 32% | 0 |
| BUF D. Cozens | 2.7 | 3 | 0.69 | 1 | 26% | 0 |
| BUF J. Peterka | 2.7 | 3 | 0.63 | 1 | 27% | 1 |
| BUF R. Dahlin | 2.6 | 1 | 0.70 | 1 | 15% | 0 |
| CBJ K. Marchenko | 2.4 | 3 | 0.60 | 2 | 28% | 1 |
| CBJ C. Sillinger | 2.3 | 1 | 0.50 | 1 | 20% | 0 |
| BUF J. Zucker | 2.3 | 1 | 0.54 | 1 | 22% | 0 |
| CBJ S. Monahan | 2.2 | 1 | 0.74 | 0 | 25% | 0 |
| CBJ A. Fantilli | 2.2 | 4 | 0.57 | 1 | 22% | 1 |
| CBJ E. Chinakhov | 2.1 | 2 | 0.56 | 1 | 21% | 1 |
| CBJ K. Johnson | 1.8 | 0 | 0.58 | 1 | 21% | 0 |
| BUF J. Greenway | 1.8 | 0 | 0.44 | 1 | 17% | 0 |
| CBJ J. Riemsdyk | 1.6 | 0 | 0.43 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| BUF O. Power | 1.6 | 2 | 0.44 | 1 | 7% | 1 |
| BUF Z. Benson | 1.3 | 1 | 0.41 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| CBJ D. Severson | 1.3 | 1 | 0.47 | 1 | 12% | 1 |
| BUF R. McLeod | 1.3 | 2 | 0.37 | 1 | 16% | 1 |
| CBJ J. Danforth | 1.3 | 2 | 0.40 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| CBJ M. Pyyhtia | 1.3 | 0 | 0.26 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| CBJ I. Provorov | 1.3 | 4 | 0.37 | 1 | 9% | 0 |
| BUF B. Byram | 1.2 | 0 | 0.47 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| CBJ S. Kuraly | 1.2 | 0 | 0.29 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| BUF H. Jokiharju | 1.2 | 1 | 0.27 | 1 | 5% | 0 |
| BUF M. Samuelsson | 1.1 | 1 | 0.19 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| CBJ M. Olivier | 1.1 | 1 | 0.26 | 2 | 10% | 1 |
| BUF C. Clifton | 1.1 | 1 | 0.25 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| BUF P. Krebs | 0.9 | 0 | 0.27 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| CBJ J. Harris | 0.8 | 0 | 0.26 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| CBJ J. Christiansen | 0.8 | 1 | 0.19 | 2 | 4% | 0 |
| BUF B. Malenstyn | 0.8 | 1 | 0.17 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| BUF S. Lafferty | 0.8 | 0 | 0.22 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| CBJ J. Johnson | 0.8 | 0 | 0.14 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| CBJ Z. Aston-Reese | 0.7 | 2 | 0.13 | 1 | 7% | 1 |
Shots on goal: 20 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.4 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.