Game Recap: BUF 2, CBJ 3, April 10, 2025

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Game Recap

BUF2

FinalThu, Apr 10, 2025Every game that night

CBJ3

CBJ beat BUF 3-2 despite fewer good chances: 2.65 expected goals to 4.34. BUF outshot CBJ 41 to 30. R. Dahlin led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). J. Zucker had 8 shots on goal against our projection of 2.0. J. Greaves stopped 39 of 41.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
BUF	2	0	0	2
CBJ	1	0	2	3

1st 11:54BUFJ. Peterka0.02 xG
1st 14:39BUFR. Dahlin0.23 xG
1st 19:51CBJJ. van Riemsdyk0.16 xG
3rd 4:00CBJZ. Aston-Reese0.02 xG
3rd 6:42CBJB. JennerPP0.52 xG

Team Stats

BUFCBJ

41Shots on goal30

4.34Expected goals2.65

76Shot attempts56

325v5 shots on goal26

0/1Power play1/1

15Hits25

13Blocked shots17

2Penalty minutes2

16Giveaways11

3Takeaways9

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

BUF 4.34 xGCBJ 2.65 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

BUF40 on goal, 2 scored

CBJ29 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

BUF Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
Z. Benson	LW	0	1	1	5	2	0	0	0	17:25	1:02
J. Peterka	RW	1	0	1	3	0	1	0	0	16:56	1:09
R. McLeod	C	0	1	1	2	1	0	0	0	16:51	0:51
J.Kulich	C	0	1	1	2	0	1	0	0	16:36	0:58
A. Tuch	RW	0	0	0	4	0	1	0	0	18:42	0:58
T. Thompson	C	0	0	0	3	0	1	0	0	18:16	0:58
J. Zucker	LW	0	0	0	8	0	1	0	0	17:27	1:02
P. Krebs	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	16:11	0:00
J. Quinn	RW	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	14:45	1:02
N. Ostlund	C	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	10:34	0:00
S. Lafferty	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	10:20	0:00
B. Malenstyn	LW	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	0	9:34	0:00
R. Dahlin	D	1	1	2	5	2	1	+2	0	24:17	0:57
B. Byram	D	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	20:52	0:00
M. Samuelsson	D	0	0	0	0	2	2	+2	0	20:00	0:00
O. Power	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	-2	0	19:57	1:03
C. Clifton	D	0	0	0	0	4	1	0	0	16:41	0:00
J. Bernard-Docker	D	0	0	0	0	0	3	-2	0	15:09	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Reimer	30	27	3	.900	58:08	Loss
U. Luukkonen	0	0	0	–	0:00

CBJ Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
B. Jenner	C	1	0	1	6	3	0	-1	0	18:26	1:19
S. Monahan	C	0	1	1	0	1	0	-1	0	16:47	1:19
K. Marchenko	RW	0	1	1	5	2	0	-1	0	16:23	1:19
K. Johnson	C	0	1	1	1	0	0	+1	0	15:34	1:19
J. van Riemsdyk	LW	1	0	1	3	0	0	+1	0	13:55	0:00
Z. Aston-Reese	LW	1	0	1	2	1	2	+1	0	11:57	0:00
M. Olivier	RW	0	0	0	0	6	0	-1	0	15:51	0:00
C. Sillinger	C	0	0	0	1	2	0	-1	0	15:48	0:00
A. Fantilli	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	+1	0	14:58	0:00
D. Voronkov	LW	0	0	0	1	2	1	-1	0	13:57	0:00
J. Danforth	RW	0	0	0	2	2	2	+1	0	13:19	0:00
S. Kuraly	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	+1	0	11:58	0:00
E. Gudbranson	D	0	1	1	4	1	3	+2	0	24:20	0:00
Z. Werenski	D	0	1	1	1	0	2	-1	0	23:46	1:19
I. Provorov	D	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	27:36	0:00
D. Fabbro	D	0	0	0	1	1	3	-2	0	19:42	0:00
D. Mateychuk	D	0	0	0	1	2	2	+1	2	19:29	0:00
J. Christiansen	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	4:14	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Greaves	41	39	2	.951	60:00	Win
D. Tarasov	0	0	0	–	0:00

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	BUF 3.5, CBJ 3.5	BUF 2, CBJ 3
Total goals	7.0	5
Shots on goal	BUF 29.0, CBJ 30.2	BUF 41, CBJ 30
Win chance	BUF 50%	CBJ won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
CBJ Z. Werenski	3.4	1	0.95	1	19%	0
BUF T. Thompson	3.2	3	1.01	0	41%	0
CBJ B. Jenner	2.5	6	0.71	1	30%	1
BUF R. Dahlin	2.5	5	0.77	2	16%	1
CBJ K. Marchenko	2.4	5	0.78	1	30%	0
BUF A. Tuch	2.4	4	0.85	0	31%	0
BUF J. Peterka	2.3	3	0.77	1	27%	1
BUF J.Kulich	2.2	2	0.46	1	22%	0
CBJ S. Monahan	2.2	0	0.85	1	26%	0
CBJ A. Fantilli	2.2	1	0.63	0	25%	0
BUF J. Zucker	2.0	8	0.66	0	25%	0
CBJ D. Voronkov	1.9	1	0.54	0	23%	0
CBJ K. Johnson	1.8	1	0.73	1	24%	0
CBJ C. Sillinger	1.8	1	0.43	0	15%	0
BUF Z. Benson	1.7	5	0.46	1	16%	0
BUF J. Quinn	1.6	2	0.56	0	20%	0
BUF O. Power	1.5	1	0.43	0	7%	0
BUF R. McLeod	1.5	2	0.64	1	22%	0
CBJ M. Olivier	1.5	0	0.41	0	17%	0
CBJ D. Fabbro	1.3	1	0.35	0	8%	0
CBJ I. Provorov	1.3	0	0.41	0	9%	0
CBJ J. Danforth	1.3	2	0.38	0	16%	0
BUF P. Krebs	1.2	1	0.39	0	13%	0
CBJ J. Riemsdyk	1.2	3	0.43	1	16%	1
BUF B. Byram	1.2	2	0.48	0	11%	0
CBJ S. Kuraly	1.2	1	0.26	0	12%	0
CBJ Z. Aston-Reese	1.2	2	0.22	1	10%	1
CBJ E. Gudbranson	1.1	4	0.27	1	5%	0
BUF C. Clifton	1.1	0	0.27	0	4%	0
CBJ D. Mateychuk	1.0	1	0.34	0	9%	0
BUF M. Samuelsson	1.0	0	0.25	0	5%	0
BUF S. Lafferty	1.0	0	0.23	0	12%	0
BUF B. Malenstyn	1.0	3	0.20	0	8%	0
BUF J. Bernard-Docker	0.7	0	0.18	0	5%	0
CBJ J. Christiansen	0.7	0	0.12	0	2%	0

Shots on goal: 18 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.4 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.