Game Recap: BUF 1, CBJ 5, January 3, 2026

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Game Recap

BUF1

FinalSat, Jan 3, 2026Every game that night

CBJ5

CBJ beat BUF 5-1 despite fewer good chances: 3.75 expected goals to 4.48. D. Mateychuk led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). M. Samuelsson had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 1.4. J. Greaves stopped 32 of 33.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
BUF	1	0	0	1
CBJ	3	1	1	5

1st 3:00CBJD. Mateychuk0.01 xG
1st 11:26BUFJ. Doan0.28 xG
1st 14:04CBJB. GaunceSH0.13 xG
1st 17:12CBJD. Voronkov0.09 xG
2nd 8:04CBJM. Olivier0.07 xG
3rd 11:46CBJC. SillingerEN0.87 xG

Team Stats

BUFCBJ

33Shots on goal35

4.48Expected goals3.75

80Shot attempts61

255v5 shots on goal26

0/5Power play0/1

15Hits23

15Blocked shots13

6Penalty minutes14

20Giveaways14

2Takeaways5

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

BUF 4.48 xGCBJ 3.75 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

BUF32 on goal, 1 scored

CBJ30 on goal, 5 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

BUF Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
J. Doan	RW	1	0	1	1	0	0	-2	0	21:30	5:11
J. Norris	C	0	1	1	2	0	2	-2	2	17:38	6:13
T. Thompson	C	0	0	0	4	2	2	-3	0	22:42	5:19
A. Tuch	RW	0	0	0	5	2	1	-2	0	19:49	4:38
R. McLeod	C	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	0	16:59	3:30
Z. Benson	LW	0	0	0	3	1	1	-1	2	16:39	5:10
J. Quinn	RW	0	0	0	3	0	1	0	0	15:53	4:30
P. Krebs	C	0	0	0	1	0	3	-1	0	14:28	0:01
N. Ostlund	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	12:36	1:01
J. Greenway	LW	0	0	0	0	1	0	-1	0	8:36	0:00
J. Dunne	C	0	0	0	1	2	0	-1	0	8:15	0:00
B. Malenstyn	LW	0	0	0	1	1	0	-1	0	7:53	0:00
O. Power	D	0	1	1	0	1	0	0	0	21:41	4:33
R. Dahlin	D	0	0	0	1	2	1	-3	0	25:30	5:18
B. Byram	D	0	0	0	3	1	1	-2	0	24:33	3:37
M. Samuelsson	D	0	0	0	4	1	0	0	0	20:59	0:01
J. Bryson	D	0	0	0	1	1	1	-1	2	9:59	0:03
Z. Metsa	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	9:46	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
U. Luukkonen	34	30	4	.882	58:34	Loss
C. Ellis	0	0	0	–	0:00

CBJ Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
B. Jenner	C	0	1	1	3	0	0	0	0	17:44	0:50
B. Gaunce	C	1	0	1	1	0	3	+3	0	16:14	0:00
M. Olivier	RW	1	0	1	1	3	1	+1	4	15:08	0:00
Z. Aston-Reese	LW	0	1	1	0	4	1	+1	0	12:48	0:00
C. Sillinger	C	1	0	1	2	2	0	+1	0	12:12	0:00
D. Voronkov	LW	1	0	1	3	1	1	+1	0	9:11	0:59
A. Fantilli	C	0	0	0	3	4	0	0	0	16:40	1:11
K. Marchenko	RW	0	0	0	2	2	0	0	0	16:28	1:11
M. Marchment	LW	0	0	0	1	1	2	0	0	15:45	1:11
C. Coyle	C	0	0	0	4	2	1	+2	0	14:49	0:38
K. Johnson	C	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	2	10:51	0:38
D. Heinen	LW	0	0	0	0	1	0	+1	0	8:51	0:00
D. Mateychuk	D	1	1	2	1	0	0	+2	0	24:15	0:00
Z. Werenski	D	0	2	2	5	1	0	+1	0	23:12	1:11
D. Severson	D	0	2	2	3	0	0	+2	2	16:55	0:38
I. Provorov	D	0	1	1	3	0	1	+3	4	25:32	0:38
D. Fabbro	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	2	18:03	0:00
J. Christiansen	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	11:22	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Greaves	33	32	1	.970	60:00	Win
E. Merzlikins	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

BUF

Line 1T. Thompson14:43J. Doan14:27P. Krebs14:10

Line 2R. McLeod11:11Z. Benson11:12J. Quinn9:54

Line 3J. Norris9:47N. Ostlund9:56A. Tuch12:16

Line 4J. Greenway8:01J. Dunne8:11B. Malenstyn7:17

Pair 1M. Samuelsson18:19R. Dahlin17:05

Pair 2B. Byram17:40O. Power14:22

Pair 3J. Bryson9:52Z. Metsa9:42

CBJ

Line 1K. Marchenko14:04A. Fantilli14:01M. Marchment12:16

Line 2B. Jenner12:35M. Olivier11:10C. Coyle10:12

Line 3B. Gaunce10:22Z. Aston-Reese10:37K. Johnson9:56

Line 4D. Voronkov8:12C. Sillinger8:41D. Heinen8:15

Pair 1Z. Werenski16:19D. Mateychuk17:05

Pair 2D. Severson13:10I. Provorov17:14

Pair 3D. Fabbro13:57J. Christiansen9:59

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	BUF 3.3, CBJ 3.3	BUF 1, CBJ 5
Total goals	6.6	6
Shots on goal	BUF 29.2, CBJ 30.0	BUF 33, CBJ 35
Win chance	CBJ 50%	CBJ won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
CBJ Z. Werenski	3.7	5	1.06	2	23%	0
BUF T. Thompson	3.4	4	0.97	0	40%	0
CBJ A. Fantilli	3.0	3	0.83	0	33%	0
CBJ K. Marchenko	3.0	2	0.87	0	33%	0
BUF R. Dahlin	2.8	1	0.83	0	19%	0
BUF J. Doan	2.4	1	0.63	1	22%	1
BUF A. Tuch	2.4	5	0.78	0	29%	0
CBJ B. Jenner	2.4	3	0.59	1	26%	0
CBJ M. Marchment	2.2	1	0.70	0	27%	0
CBJ D. Voronkov	1.9	3	0.59	1	25%	1
BUF O. Power	1.8	0	0.46	1	9%	0
BUF Z. Benson	1.8	3	0.50	0	16%	0
CBJ I. Provorov	1.7	3	0.46	1	10%	0
BUF J. Quinn	1.7	3	0.54	0	18%	0
CBJ C. Sillinger	1.7	2	0.41	1	14%	1
BUF J. Norris	1.7	2	0.62	1	28%	0
CBJ C. Coyle	1.5	4	0.58	0	20%	0
CBJ D. Mateychuk	1.5	1	0.54	2	15%	1
BUF B. Byram	1.4	3	0.54	0	16%	0
BUF R. McLeod	1.4	2	0.59	0	20%	0
BUF M. Samuelsson	1.4	4	0.36	0	8%	0
CBJ M. Olivier	1.3	1	0.36	1	15%	1
CBJ D. Severson	1.3	3	0.41	2	9%	0
BUF P. Krebs	1.3	1	0.36	0	11%	0
CBJ B. Gaunce	1.2	1	0.25	1	12%	1
BUF N. Ostlund	1.2	1	0.38	0	17%	0
CBJ K. Johnson	1.2	1	0.38	0	14%	0
BUF B. Malenstyn	1.1	1	0.20	0	9%	0
CBJ D. Fabbro	1.1	0	0.26	0	7%	0
BUF J. Greenway	1.1	0	0.23	0	10%	0
CBJ D. Heinen	1.0	0	0.32	0	14%	0
BUF J. Dunne	1.0	1	0.18	0	8%	0
CBJ Z. Aston-Reese	0.8	0	0.16	1	7%	0
CBJ J. Christiansen	0.7	1	0.10	0	2%	0
BUF Z. Metsa	0.5	0	0.07	0	3%	0
BUF J. Bryson	0.3	1	0.11	0	2%	0

Shots on goal: 19 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.