CGY beat BUF 5-2, and the chances backed it up: 4.66 expected goals to 3.58. BUF outshot CGY 34 to 26. J. Huberdeau led the way with 3 points (1 G, 2 A). D. Wolf stopped 32 of 34.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 |
| CGY | 1 | 1 | 3 | 5 |
- 1st 12:00CGYJ. HuberdeauSH0.20 xG
- 2nd 2:50BUFM. Samuelsson0.01 xG
- 2nd 7:18BUFT. Thompson0.06 xG
- 2nd 10:31CGYN. Kadri0.07 xG
- 3rd 3:29CGYJ. Pelletier0.09 xG
- 3rd 17:15CGYY. SharangovichEN0.84 xG
- 3rd 17:52CGYM. BacklundEN0.95 xG
Team Stats
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
BUF 3.58 xGCGY 4.66 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
BUF Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Peterka | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 21:19 | 4:51 |
| T. Thompson | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 21:03 | 4:42 |
| S. Lafferty | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 7:14 | 0:23 |
| D. Cozens | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 19:57 | 4:04 |
| J.Kulich | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 19:07 | 3:08 |
| J. Quinn | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 2 | 18:56 | 4:59 |
| A. Tuch | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 17:58 | 4:59 |
| P. Krebs | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | -2 | 5 | 17:37 | 3:13 |
| Z. Benson | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 17:21 | 3:18 |
| T. Kozak | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 13:04 | 0:06 |
| B. Malenstyn | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8:08 | 0:23 |
| M. Samuelsson | D | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 17:34 | 0:02 |
| H. Jokiharju | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:53 | 0:00 |
| R. Dahlin | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 3 | -1 | 0 | 24:30 | 5:38 |
| B. Byram | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 21:30 | 1:38 |
| O. Power | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 | 20:12 | 3:26 |
| C. Clifton | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 9:22 | 0:13 |
| D. Gilbert | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 7:18 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| U. Luukkonen | 24 | 21 | 3 | .875 | 59:06 | Loss |
| J. Reimer | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
CGY Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Huberdeau | LW | 1 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +4 | 2 | 21:20 | 0:39 |
| N. Kadri | C | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +3 | 4 | 18:04 | 0:39 |
| J. Pelletier | LW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +3 | 2 | 14:58 | 0:00 |
| B. Coleman | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19:58 | 0:00 |
| M. Backlund | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19:27 | 0:00 |
| Y. Sharangovich | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16:29 | 0:30 |
| M. Coronato | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 2 | 15:31 | 0:26 |
| M. Pospisil | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:36 | 0:11 |
| A. Kuzmenko | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 9:05 | 0:00 |
| R. Lomberg | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7:24 | 0:04 |
| R. Kerins | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 6:57 | 0:00 |
| C. Bishop | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5:26 | 0:00 |
| B. Pachal | D | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 17:02 | 0:17 |
| R. Andersson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 2 | 23:18 | 0:00 |
| K. Bahl | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 10 | 22:55 | 0:00 |
| M. Weegar | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 5 | +3 | 5 | 21:24 | 0:26 |
| D. Miromanov | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 2 | 19:11 | 0:06 |
| J. Bean | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 15:55 | 0:17 |
Storylines That Played Out
As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | BUF 3.0, CGY 3.2 | BUF 2, CGY 5 |
| Total goals | 6.1 | 7 |
| Shots on goal | BUF 27.6, CGY 31.2 | BUF 34, CGY 26 |
| Win chance | CGY 54% | CGY won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY N. Kadri | 3.3 | 1 | 0.87 | 3 | 30% | 1 |
| BUF T. Thompson | 3.2 | 1 | 0.93 | 1 | 38% | 1 |
| CGY B. Coleman | 2.6 | 1 | 0.69 | 1 | 28% | 0 |
| CGY M. Backlund | 2.5 | 2 | 0.54 | 1 | 20% | 1 |
| CGY M. Coronato | 2.5 | 0 | 0.60 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| BUF R. Dahlin | 2.4 | 3 | 0.69 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| BUF J. Peterka | 2.3 | 3 | 0.65 | 1 | 24% | 0 |
| CGY M. Weegar | 2.2 | 3 | 0.60 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| BUF D. Cozens | 2.2 | 1 | 0.57 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| BUF A. Tuch | 2.1 | 4 | 0.74 | 0 | 26% | 0 |
| BUF J.Kulich | 2.0 | 1 | 0.37 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| CGY Y. Sharangovich | 1.9 | 4 | 0.56 | 1 | 25% | 1 |
| CGY R. Andersson | 1.9 | 2 | 0.51 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| CGY J. Huberdeau | 1.9 | 3 | 0.83 | 3 | 25% | 1 |
| BUF J. Quinn | 1.9 | 3 | 0.55 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| CGY M. Pospisil | 1.6 | 1 | 0.39 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| CGY J. Pelletier | 1.5 | 2 | 0.42 | 2 | 15% | 1 |
| CGY D. Miromanov | 1.4 | 0 | 0.30 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| BUF Z. Benson | 1.4 | 2 | 0.43 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| BUF O. Power | 1.4 | 3 | 0.41 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| CGY A. Kuzmenko | 1.2 | 0 | 0.55 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| BUF B. Byram | 1.2 | 3 | 0.43 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| CGY K. Bahl | 1.1 | 0 | 0.28 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| BUF P. Krebs | 1.1 | 2 | 0.35 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| BUF M. Samuelsson | 1.0 | 2 | 0.18 | 2 | 3% | 1 |
| CGY B. Pachal | 0.9 | 1 | 0.15 | 2 | 5% | 0 |
| CGY C. Bishop | 0.9 | 1 | 0.19 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| CGY J. Bean | 0.9 | 3 | 0.22 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| BUF H. Jokiharju | 0.9 | 0 | 0.16 | 1 | 3% | 0 |
| BUF B. Malenstyn | 0.8 | 2 | 0.19 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| CGY R. Lomberg | 0.8 | 2 | 0.13 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| BUF T. Kozak | 0.8 | 1 | 0.22 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| BUF S. Lafferty | 0.7 | 1 | 0.19 | 1 | 9% | 0 |
| BUF C. Clifton | 0.7 | 0 | 0.18 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| BUF D. Gilbert | 0.4 | 2 | 0.12 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 15 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.