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Game Recap
BUF2
Final/OTThu, Nov 12, 2026Every game that night
CHI3

CHI beat BUF 3-2 in overtime, with the chances close: 2.20 expected goals to 2.01. F. Nazar led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). F. Nazar had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.7. S. Knight stopped 21 of 23.

Scoring

1st2nd3rdOTT
BUF20002
CHI10113
  1. 1st 9:00BUFO. Power0.09 xG
  2. 1st 12:22CHIF. NazarPP0.23 xG
  3. 1st 15:46BUFT. ThompsonPP0.08 xG
  4. 3rd 8:22CHIF. Nazar0.08 xG
  5. OT 3:12CHIR. Donato0.15 xG

Team Stats

BUFCHI
23Shots on goal25
2.01Expected goals2.20
51Shot attempts39
185v5 shots on goal15
1/4Power play1/3
21Hits19
9Blocked shots16
8Penalty minutes10
12Giveaways12
3Takeaways3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

BUF 2.01 xGCHI 2.20 xGGoal

00.511.522.51st2nd3rdOTBUF goal, 9:00CHI goal, 12:22BUF goal, 15:46CHI goal, 8:22CHI goal, 3:12

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

BUF23 on goal, 2 scored
CHI24 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

BUF Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
J. QuinnRW0220010019:424:24
T. ThompsonC1012000020:214:26
J. NorrisC0112110013:382:15
Z. BensonLW0002000019:224:25
N. OstlundC000000-2218:044:19
P. KrebsC0002200016:430:00
R. McLeodC0002000015:172:11
J.KulichC0001200214:210:06
J. ZuckerLW0001000013:432:11
B. MalenstynLW0000210012:410:01
J. DoanRW0001110012:112:04
T. KozakC0002100010:070:00
R. DahlinD0113300426:224:29
O. PowerD1011000023:262:16
M. SamuelssonD0000620024:410:00
C. TimminsD0001030018:140:00
O. ZellwegerD000100-1014:250:03
L. CrevierD0002300010:380:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
A. Lyon25223.88062:41OT loss
C. Ellis000–0:00

CHI Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
F. NazarC202531+1018:484:29
C. BedardC0112100022:264:51
R. KantserovRW0111110020:084:51
A. FrondellC0110000017:080:00
R. DonatoC101211+1011:180:00
O. MooreC011100+1010:450:00
P. KaneRW0004010217:394:51
T. BertuzziLW0001020016:300:00
C. SmithRW0000420214:030:00
A. MangiapaneLW000111-1012:360:00
R. GreeneC0002000011:210:00
J. GreenwayLW000120009:450:00
S. RinzelD022130+2421:534:25
A. LevshunovD0001110023:100:26
A. VlasicD0001040022:280:00
I. ColeD000202+1022:260:00
W. KaiserD000010-1218:290:00
E. Del MastroD000010-1011:090:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
S. Knight23212.91362:48Win
D. Commesso000–0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

BUF

Line 1P. Krebs15:14T. Thompson13:24Z. Benson13:08
Line 2J. Quinn12:59N. Ostlund12:06J. Zucker11:32
Line 3B. Malenstyn9:32T. Kozak9:44R. McLeod7:26
Line 4J. Norris10:12J.Kulich12:50J. Doan9:43
Pair 1M. Samuelsson19:01R. Dahlin19:43
Pair 2C. Timmins13:02O. Power17:01
Pair 3L. Crevier10:38O. Zellweger12:35

CHI

Line 1T. Bertuzzi16:06C. Bedard14:41R. Kantserov12:54
Line 2A. Mangiapane11:40A. Frondell13:34R. Donato9:52
Line 3C. Smith10:54R. Greene8:50J. Greenway7:08
Line 4F. Nazar10:19O. Moore10:45P. Kane10:30
Pair 1I. Cole18:14A. Levshunov18:03
Pair 2A. Vlasic17:10S. Rinzel14:47
Pair 3W. Kaiser15:07E. Mastro9:16

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Prop Results

5 of 19 overs hit (26%).

PlayerLineOverUnderSOGResult
CHI C. Bedard3.5+130-1652Under
BUF T. Thompson3.5+105-1112Under
CHI A. Frondell2.5+140-1700Under
BUF J. Quinn2.5-110+1050Under
BUF R. Dahlin2.5-130+1063Over
BUF Z. Benson2.5+115-1352Under
CHI F. Nazar1.5-130+1055Over
BUF J. Doan1.5-150+1241Under
BUF J. Norris1.5+110-1342Over
BUF J. Zucker1.5-110-1101Under
BUF M. Samuelsson1.5+130-1520Under
BUF N. Ostlund1.5-150+1250Under
BUF O. Power1.5+110-1201Under
BUF O. Zellweger1.5+105-1201Under
CHI P. Kane1.5-154+1204Over
CHI R. Donato1.5+105-1302Over
CHI R. Kantserov1.5-165+1461Under
CHI S. Rinzel1.5+120-1351Under
CHI T. Bertuzzi1.5+130-1301Under

Each player's main line (the one most books posted) at the last price before puck drop, the best price on each side there, and what he did.

Storylines That Played Out

  • MilestoneJosh Norris BUF 2 points from 200Not yet: 1 A, 2 SOG
  • MilestoneTage Thompson BUF 1 assist from 200Not yet: 1 G, 2 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

We projectedIt finished
ScoreBUF 3.5, CHI 2.8BUF 2, CHI 3
Total goals6.45
Shots on goalBUF 29.5, CHI 24.9BUF 23, CHI 25
Win chanceBUF 60%CHI won

Players

PlayerSOG projectedSOGPoints projectedPointsGoal chanceGoals
BUF T. Thompson3.621.07140%1
CHI C. Bedard3.021.07133%0
BUF R. Dahlin2.630.93121%0
BUF Z. Benson2.520.86026%0
BUF J. Quinn2.500.75226%0
CHI A. Frondell2.300.64124%0
CHI P. Kane2.140.78023%0
BUF J. Zucker2.010.61025%0
CHI R. Kantserov2.010.75127%0
CHI T. Bertuzzi1.810.70029%0
BUF J. Doan1.810.49021%0
BUF N. Ostlund1.700.62021%0
BUF J.Kulich1.710.40019%0
CHI F. Nazar1.750.54223%2
BUF O. Power1.410.57111%1
CHI R. Donato1.420.44119%1
CHI S. Rinzel1.410.3027%0
BUF M. Samuelsson1.400.4609%0
CHI O. Moore1.310.34112%0
BUF O. Zellweger1.310.29010%0
BUF J. Norris1.320.48121%0
BUF P. Krebs1.320.59016%0
BUF C. Timmins1.210.3105%0
CHI A. Mangiapane1.110.35016%0
CHI R. Greene1.120.32014%0
CHI A. Vlasic1.110.2904%0
CHI C. Smith1.000.24012%0
CHI A. Levshunov1.010.2705%0
CHI J. Greenway1.010.22010%0
CHI E. Mastro1.000.2104%0
CHI W. Kaiser0.900.2405%0
BUF R. McLeod0.920.40012%0
CHI I. Cole0.820.2504%0
BUF B. Malenstyn0.800.2108%0
BUF L. Crevier0.820.1504%0
BUF T. Kozak0.720.1808%0

Shots on goal: 22 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.