DAL beat BUF 4-2, and the chances backed it up: 4.13 expected goals to 2.68. DAL outshot BUF 33 to 23. J. Robertson led the way with 3 points (1 G, 2 A). J. Benn had 7 shots on goal against our projection of 2.0. C. DeSmith stopped 21 of 23.
Team Stats
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
BUF 2.68 xGDAL 4.13 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
BUF Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T. Thompson | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 18:35 | 0:00 |
| J. Zucker | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:04 | 0:00 |
| R. McLeod | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:14 | 0:00 |
| B. Malenstyn | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 11:14 | 0:00 |
| S. Lafferty | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 10:08 | 0:00 |
| A. Tuch | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 18:23 | 0:00 |
| D. Cozens | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 16:26 | 0:00 |
| J. Peterka | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 15:51 | 0:00 |
| P. Krebs | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 15:26 | 0:00 |
| J. Quinn | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 15:09 | 0:00 |
| Z. Benson | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:54 | 0:00 |
| J.Kulich | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 14:50 | 0:00 |
| B. Byram | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 5 | -1 | 0 | 24:46 | 0:00 |
| R. Dahlin | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 2 | -2 | 0 | 22:32 | 0:00 |
| O. Power | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 21:28 | 0:00 |
| M. Samuelsson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 21:10 | 0:00 |
| J. Bryson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15:19 | 0:00 |
| C. Clifton | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 14:31 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| U. Luukkonen | 32 | 29 | 3 | .906 | 58:00 | Loss |
| J. Reimer | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
DAL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Robertson | LW | 1 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 15:15 | 1:43 |
| W. Johnston | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 21:00 | 1:42 |
| R. Hintz | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15:32 | 1:39 |
| M. Duchene | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 20:47 | 0:21 |
| J. Benn | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 19:02 | 1:42 |
| L. Stankoven | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 15:54 | 0:17 |
| O. Bäck | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:07 | 0:00 |
| S. Steel | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 14:54 | 0:00 |
| M. Bourque | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:29 | 0:00 |
| E. Dadonov | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:41 | 0:18 |
| C. Blackwell | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:47 | 0:00 |
| J. Hryckowian | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7:30 | 0:00 |
| T. Harley | D | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 19:59 | 0:21 |
| E. Lindell | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 22:00 | 0:18 |
| M. Heiskanen | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 25:09 | 1:39 |
| M. Dumba | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 17:15 | 0:00 |
| I. Lyubushkin | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 17:02 | 0:00 |
| N. Lundkvist | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 16:37 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C. DeSmith | 23 | 21 | 2 | .913 | 60:00 | Win |
| J. Oettinger | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | BUF 2.7, DAL 3.7 | BUF 2, DAL 4 |
| Total goals | 6.4 | 6 |
| Shots on goal | BUF 25.6, DAL 32.1 | BUF 23, DAL 33 |
| Win chance | DAL 65% | DAL won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL W. Johnston | 2.8 | 4 | 0.85 | 1 | 32% | 1 |
| BUF T. Thompson | 2.5 | 1 | 0.75 | 1 | 33% | 0 |
| DAL J. Robertson | 2.5 | 2 | 0.99 | 3 | 33% | 1 |
| BUF R. Dahlin | 2.3 | 3 | 0.58 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| DAL L. Stankoven | 2.3 | 4 | 0.56 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| DAL R. Hintz | 2.1 | 3 | 0.83 | 1 | 34% | 1 |
| DAL M. Heiskanen | 2.1 | 1 | 0.71 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| DAL J. Benn | 2.0 | 7 | 0.87 | 0 | 26% | 0 |
| BUF J. Peterka | 1.9 | 1 | 0.52 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| BUF A. Tuch | 1.9 | 2 | 0.65 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| BUF J. Zucker | 1.9 | 4 | 0.52 | 1 | 21% | 1 |
| DAL M. Duchene | 1.8 | 3 | 0.86 | 0 | 30% | 0 |
| BUF D. Cozens | 1.8 | 1 | 0.47 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| DAL T. Harley | 1.8 | 1 | 0.48 | 2 | 11% | 0 |
| BUF J.Kulich | 1.7 | 2 | 0.30 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| BUF J. Quinn | 1.6 | 0 | 0.46 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| DAL E. Dadonov | 1.6 | 2 | 0.52 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| BUF O. Power | 1.4 | 2 | 0.37 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| DAL N. Lundkvist | 1.4 | 0 | 0.26 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| DAL E. Lindell | 1.3 | 3 | 0.30 | 1 | 7% | 1 |
| BUF Z. Benson | 1.2 | 1 | 0.36 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| DAL C. Blackwell | 1.2 | 2 | 0.27 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| BUF B. Byram | 1.2 | 1 | 0.42 | 1 | 11% | 0 |
| DAL S. Steel | 1.2 | 0 | 0.43 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| BUF M. Samuelsson | 1.1 | 0 | 0.17 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| DAL M. Bourque | 1.1 | 0 | 0.29 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| BUF R. McLeod | 0.9 | 0 | 0.31 | 1 | 13% | 0 |
| DAL M. Dumba | 0.9 | 1 | 0.14 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| BUF B. Malenstyn | 0.8 | 1 | 0.19 | 1 | 8% | 1 |
| BUF P. Krebs | 0.8 | 0 | 0.26 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| BUF C. Clifton | 0.8 | 1 | 0.18 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| DAL O. Bäck | 0.7 | 0 | 0.37 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| BUF S. Lafferty | 0.7 | 3 | 0.18 | 1 | 9% | 0 |
| DAL I. Lyubushkin | 0.6 | 0 | 0.19 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
| BUF J. Bryson | 0.4 | 0 | 0.12 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 21 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.