Game Recap: BUF 2, MTL 4, October 20, 2025

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Game Recap

BUF2

FinalMon, Oct 20, 2025Every game that night

MTL4

MTL beat BUF 4-2, with the chances close: 3.69 expected goals to 4.09. N. Suzuki led the way with 2 points (0 G, 2 A). J. Evans had 8 shots on goal against our projection of 1.0. J. Dobes stopped 30 of 32.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
BUF	0	1	1	2
MTL	1	0	3	4

1st 8:29MTLO. Kapanen0.17 xG
2nd 6:51BUFJ.Kulich0.15 xG
3rd 2:57MTLJ. Slafkovský0.28 xG
3rd 11:38MTLL. Hutson0.12 xG
3rd 12:30BUFT. Kozak0.23 xG
3rd 19:29MTLJ. EvansEN0.60 xG

Team Stats

BUFMTL

32Shots on goal32

4.09Expected goals3.69

73Shot attempts58

265v5 shots on goal27

0/1Power play0/1

15Hits22

9Blocked shots21

6Penalty minutes6

15Giveaways11

6Takeaways3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

BUF 4.09 xGMTL 3.69 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

BUF32 on goal, 2 scored

MTL32 on goal, 4 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

BUF Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
Z. Benson	LW	0	1	1	7	1	0	-1	2	21:11	1:53
J.Kulich	C	1	0	1	2	0	0	0	0	18:00	0:07
J. Quinn	RW	0	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	13:17	0:07
T. Kozak	C	1	0	1	2	2	0	+1	0	10:59	0:07
T. Thompson	C	0	0	0	3	2	1	-2	2	20:18	1:53
A. Tuch	RW	0	0	0	2	0	0	-1	0	20:08	0:00
R. McLeod	C	0	0	0	2	1	1	-1	0	19:58	0:00
J. Doan	RW	0	0	0	2	1	1	0	0	15:53	1:53
P. Krebs	C	0	0	0	1	4	1	-1	0	13:29	0:00
J. Zucker	LW	0	0	0	1	0	0	-2	0	12:35	1:53
J. Dunne	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	6:35	0:00
M. Geertsen	LW	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	5:27	0:00
R. Dahlin	D	0	1	1	4	0	0	-1	0	26:52	1:53
B. Byram	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	+1	0	23:07	0:07
O. Power	D	0	0	0	2	1	0	-2	0	21:17	0:07
M. Samuelsson	D	0	0	0	1	2	2	-1	0	19:13	0:00
C. Timmins	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	-2	0	18:47	0:00
Z. Metsa	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	+1	2	9:02	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
A. Lyon	31	28	3	.903	57:52	Loss
C. Ellis	0	0	0	–	0:00

MTL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
N. Suzuki	C	0	2	2	1	0	1	+2	0	21:37	2:00
A. Newhook	C	0	2	2	1	1	2	+1	0	15:44	0:00
J. Evans	C	1	0	1	8	2	2	+1	0	18:16	0:00
J. Slafkovský	LW	1	0	1	3	3	1	+1	4	17:17	1:25
O. Kapanen	C	1	0	1	1	1	0	0	0	12:34	0:24
I. Demidov	RW	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	12:27	0:37
C. Caufield	RW	0	0	0	1	3	0	+1	0	17:48	1:23
J. Anderson	RW	0	0	0	4	2	1	+2	0	15:55	0:00
B. Gallagher	RW	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	2	15:46	0:37
Z. Bolduc	RW	0	0	0	2	2	0	-1	0	11:03	1:23
J. Veleno	C	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	9:27	0:00
O. Beck	C	0	0	0	0	0	1	-1	0	8:01	0:00
N. Dobson	D	0	1	1	3	0	1	+1	0	20:46	0:29
L. Hutson	D	1	0	1	2	0	1	0	0	19:59	1:31
M. Matheson	D	0	0	0	0	2	4	+2	0	26:30	0:11
J. Struble	D	0	0	0	2	2	1	+1	0	19:09	0:00
A. Carrier	D	0	0	0	1	0	5	+1	0	18:36	0:00
A. Xhekaj	D	0	0	0	0	1	0	-1	0	13:08	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Dobes	32	30	2	.938	59:57	Win
S. Montembeault	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

BUF

Line 1Z. Benson16:28T. Thompson15:44J.Kulich15:16

Line 2A. Tuch15:05R. McLeod16:05J. Doan13:40

Line 3J. Zucker10:42P. Krebs13:03J. Quinn11:56

Line 4J. Dunne6:35T. Kozak9:46M. Geertsen5:27

Pair 1C. Timmins16:28O. Power18:17

Pair 2R. Dahlin21:13B. Byram18:09

Pair 3M. Samuelsson16:59Z. Metsa9:02

MTL

Line 1J. Slafkovský15:49C. Caufield14:44N. Suzuki16:04

Line 2B. Gallagher14:26J. Evans14:13J. Anderson13:33

Line 3A. Newhook11:55O. Kapanen11:01I. Demidov11:07

Line 4J. Veleno9:27Z. Bolduc9:40O. Beck8:01

Pair 1M. Matheson20:38N. Dobson16:04

Pair 2J. Struble17:53L. Hutson16:31

Pair 3A. Carrier15:48A. Xhekaj13:01

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	BUF 3.2, MTL 3.4	BUF 2, MTL 4
Total goals	6.6	6
Shots on goal	BUF 27.0, MTL 27.5	BUF 32, MTL 32
Win chance	MTL 53%	MTL won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
MTL C. Caufield	3.2	1	0.92	0	36%	0
BUF T. Thompson	3.1	3	0.92	0	39%	0
BUF R. Dahlin	2.6	4	0.79	1	17%	0
BUF A. Tuch	2.5	2	0.82	0	31%	0
MTL N. Dobson	2.4	3	0.67	1	14%	0
MTL N. Suzuki	2.2	1	1.07	2	31%	0
BUF J.Kulich	2.2	2	0.43	1	22%	1
MTL J. Slafkovský	2.1	3	0.72	1	25%	1
BUF J. Zucker	2.1	1	0.62	0	24%	0
BUF J. Doan	2.0	2	0.49	0	18%	0
MTL Z. Bolduc	2.0	2	0.59	0	25%	0
MTL B. Gallagher	1.9	3	0.53	0	20%	0
MTL M. Matheson	1.8	0	0.50	0	11%	0
BUF Z. Benson	1.8	7	0.49	1	16%	0
BUF J. Quinn	1.6	1	0.53	1	20%	0
BUF O. Power	1.5	2	0.41	0	7%	0
MTL A. Newhook	1.5	1	0.42	2	18%	0
MTL J. Anderson	1.5	4	0.34	0	17%	0
BUF R. McLeod	1.4	2	0.60	0	21%	0
MTL L. Hutson	1.2	2	0.87	1	8%	1
BUF C. Timmins	1.2	0	0.31	0	5%	0
BUF B. Byram	1.2	1	0.47	0	11%	0
MTL I. Demidov	1.2	0	0.55	1	16%	0
BUF P. Krebs	1.1	1	0.33	0	11%	0
MTL J. Veleno	1.0	0	0.26	0	11%	0
MTL O. Kapanen	1.0	1	0.27	1	12%	1
MTL A. Carrier	1.0	1	0.31	0	5%	0
MTL J. Evans	1.0	8	0.41	1	13%	1
BUF M. Samuelsson	0.9	1	0.21	0	4%	0
MTL O. Beck	0.9	0	0.16	0	9%	0
MTL A. Xhekaj	0.8	0	0.12	0	4%	0
MTL J. Struble	0.7	2	0.21	0	4%	0
BUF J. Dunne	0.6	1	0.12	0	8%	0
BUF T. Kozak	0.6	2	0.20	1	11%	1
BUF M. Geertsen	0.4	0	0.04	0	4%	0

Shots on goal: 21 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.