Game Recap: BUF 2, NJD 1, February 25, 2026

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Game Recap

BUF2

FinalWed, Feb 25, 2026Every game that night

NJD1

BUF beat NJD 2-1 despite fewer good chances: 3.33 expected goals to 4.47. T. Thompson led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). M. Samuelsson had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 1.3. U. Luukkonen stopped 27 of 28.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
BUF	0	1	1	2
NJD	0	0	1	1

2nd 8:10BUFT. Thompson0.19 xG
3rd 10:36BUFP. Krebs0.16 xG
3rd 17:30NJDT. Meier0.91 xG

Team Stats

BUFNJD

30Shots on goal28

3.33Expected goals4.47

59Shot attempts56

285v5 shots on goal19

0/3Power play0/2

21Hits24

10Blocked shots13

7Penalty minutes11

18Giveaways17

4Takeaways4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

BUF 3.33 xGNJD 4.47 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

BUF30 on goal, 2 scored

NJD27 on goal, 1 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

BUF Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
T. Thompson	C	1	1	2	3	1	0	+2	0	19:19	3:39
P. Krebs	C	1	1	2	1	0	0	+2	0	13:41	0:00
A. Tuch	RW	0	0	0	2	2	1	+1	0	19:50	2:05
R. McLeod	C	0	0	0	3	0	1	0	0	17:34	2:11
J. Quinn	RW	0	0	0	3	1	0	+1	0	15:45	3:39
N. Ostlund	C	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	15:28	2:41
J. Doan	RW	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	0	14:58	2:21
J. Norris	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	14:33	3:43
J. Zucker	LW	0	0	0	3	1	1	0	5	13:28	1:38
T. Kozak	C	0	0	0	1	3	0	-1	0	12:04	0:07
B. Malenstyn	LW	0	0	0	0	3	0	-1	0	11:49	0:06
J. Dunne	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	11:15	0:00
B. Byram	D	0	1	1	0	0	2	+1	0	23:08	2:03
M. Samuelsson	D	0	0	0	4	5	1	0	0	24:15	0:10
R. Dahlin	D	0	0	0	1	2	2	0	0	24:07	3:51
O. Power	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	+1	2	21:51	1:46
M. Kesselring	D	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	14:43	0:00
Z. Metsa	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	8:16	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
U. Luukkonen	28	27	1	.964	60:00	Win
A. Lyon	0	0	0	–	0:00

NJD Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
J. Hughes	C	0	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	21:25	2:47
T. Meier	RW	1	0	1	6	4	0	+1	0	19:47	1:33
J. Bratt	LW	0	1	1	2	2	0	0	0	18:49	2:27
N. Hischier	C	0	0	0	2	1	1	+1	2	21:11	2:45
C. Brown	RW	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	18:38	2:33
D. Mercer	C	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	0	18:15	1:27
A. Gritsyuk	RW	0	0	0	1	0	1	-1	0	14:25	1:15
L. Hameenaho	RW	0	0	0	3	2	1	0	0	12:31	1:12
C. Glass	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	-1	0	11:53	0:00
N. Bjugstad	C	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	10:35	0:00
M. Tsyplakov	RW	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	9:20	0:00
P. Cotter	LW	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	7:45	0:00
S. Nemec	D	0	0	0	1	1	1	+1	0	22:23	1:36
B. Dillon	D	0	0	0	0	6	1	0	0	20:15	0:00
D. Hamilton	D	0	0	0	3	2	3	0	0	20:02	2:24
B. Pesce	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	-2	0	18:50	0:01
J. Siegenthaler	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	7	15:59	0:00
J. Kovacevic	D	0	0	0	0	1	2	-2	2	15:13	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Allen	30	28	2	.933	56:44	Loss
J. Markstrom	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

BUF

Line 1A. Tuch14:30T. Thompson14:41P. Krebs12:43

Line 2R. McLeod13:04J. Quinn12:02J. Zucker11:46

Line 3N. Ostlund11:32J. Doan11:21J. Norris9:36

Line 4J. Dunne10:11T. Kozak9:08B. Malenstyn9:00

Pair 1M. Samuelsson20:33R. Dahlin17:34

Pair 2B. Byram17:10O. Power18:01

Pair 3M. Kesselring12:18Z. Metsa8:10

NJD

Line 1T. Meier15:46N. Hischier14:52D. Mercer14:01

Line 2J. Bratt11:55J. Hughes15:22C. Brown10:51

Line 3A. Gritsyuk12:12L. Hameenaho10:27C. Glass8:41

Line 4N. Bjugstad8:53M. Tsyplakov9:19P. Cotter7:45

Pair 1B. Dillon16:19S. Nemec16:31

Pair 2D. Hamilton16:17J. Siegenthaler15:12

Pair 3B. Pesce15:18J. Kovacevic13:39

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	BUF 3.2, NJD 3.3	BUF 2, NJD 1
Total goals	6.5	3
Shots on goal	BUF 25.7, NJD 31.0	BUF 30, NJD 28
Win chance	NJD 52%	BUF won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
NJD T. Meier	3.5	6	0.71	1	33%	1
BUF T. Thompson	3.4	3	1.00	2	41%	1
NJD J. Hughes	3.2	1	0.95	1	32%	0
NJD D. Hamilton	3.0	3	0.65	0	16%	0
NJD N. Hischier	2.8	2	0.93	0	34%	0
BUF R. Dahlin	2.7	1	0.82	0	17%	0
NJD J. Bratt	2.4	2	0.95	1	28%	0
NJD A. Gritsyuk	2.4	1	0.48	0	18%	0
BUF A. Tuch	2.3	2	0.80	0	31%	0
BUF J. Zucker	2.1	3	0.68	0	26%	0
BUF J. Quinn	2.0	3	0.65	0	21%	0
BUF J. Doan	1.9	3	0.63	0	23%	0
NJD C. Brown	1.9	1	0.60	0	21%	0
BUF O. Power	1.7	0	0.38	0	7%	0
NJD D. Mercer	1.7	2	0.45	0	22%	0
NJD C. Glass	1.6	1	0.38	0	16%	0
NJD N. Bjugstad	1.6	3	0.30	0	16%	0
NJD S. Nemec	1.3	1	0.36	0	10%	0
NJD L. Hameenaho	1.3	3	0.44	0	17%	0
BUF J. Norris	1.3	1	0.53	0	24%	0
NJD B. Pesce	1.3	1	0.25	0	5%	0
BUF M. Samuelsson	1.3	4	0.39	0	8%	0
BUF B. Byram	1.2	0	0.44	1	11%	0
BUF R. McLeod	1.2	3	0.62	0	19%	0
BUF M. Kesselring	1.1	1	0.17	0	4%	0
BUF P. Krebs	1.0	1	0.35	2	11%	1
NJD J. Kovacevic	0.9	0	0.20	0	4%	0
NJD M. Tsyplakov	0.9	1	0.22	0	8%	0
BUF N. Ostlund	0.9	2	0.36	0	16%	0
NJD J. Siegenthaler	0.9	0	0.17	0	3%	0
NJD P. Cotter	0.8	0	0.20	0	12%	0
BUF J. Dunne	0.8	1	0.14	0	7%	0
BUF B. Malenstyn	0.8	0	0.14	0	7%	0
NJD B. Dillon	0.7	0	0.22	0	5%	0
BUF T. Kozak	0.6	1	0.15	0	9%	0
BUF Z. Metsa	0.4	1	0.08	0	3%	0

Shots on goal: 24 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.