Game Recap: BUF 4, OTT 0, January 9, 2025

Go ad-free AND support the site for the 26-27 season for just $18. Sign up now!

Game Recap

BUF4

FinalThu, Jan 9, 2025Every game that night

OTT0

BUF beat OTT 4-0, with the chances close: 2.30 expected goals to 2.73. OTT outshot BUF 35 to 21. R. McLeod led the way with 3 points (1 G, 2 A). R. McLeod had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.1. U. Luukkonen stopped 35 of 35.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
BUF	2	2	0	4
OTT	0	0	0	0

1st 10:17BUFJ. Quinn0.13 xG
1st 13:17BUFJ. Quinn0.18 xG
2nd 4:11BUFD. Cozens0.06 xG
2nd 10:22BUFR. McLeod0.02 xG

Team Stats

BUFOTT

21Shots on goal35

2.30Expected goals2.73

36Shot attempts69

145v5 shots on goal27

0/4Power play0/4

21Hits27

15Blocked shots9

15Penalty minutes15

12Giveaways15

4Takeaways5

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

BUF 2.30 xGOTT 2.73 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

BUF21 on goal, 4 scored

OTT35 on goal, 0 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

BUF Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
R. McLeod	C	1	2	3	5	1	1	+3	0	20:14	0:00
J. Quinn	RW	2	0	2	3	2	0	+3	4	17:50	4:32
A. Tuch	RW	0	1	1	2	0	0	0	0	19:52	2:18
D. Cozens	C	1	0	1	1	5	0	+1	0	17:24	1:03
Z. Benson	LW	0	1	1	0	0	0	+2	0	15:47	0:56
P. Krebs	C	0	1	1	0	1	2	+1	0	13:52	0:00
T. Thompson	C	0	0	0	3	1	1	+1	0	20:05	4:34
J. Peterka	RW	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	18:40	4:39
J. Zucker	LW	0	0	0	1	0	0	+1	2	17:43	3:23
S. Lafferty	C	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	7:37	0:00
T. Kozak	C	0	0	0	1	1	2	0	0	7:23	0:00
R. Dahlin	D	0	1	1	1	1	2	+1	0	20:18	4:35
B. Byram	D	0	0	0	0	1	3	+2	0	22:16	0:55
C. Clifton	D	0	0	0	1	3	0	+1	0	18:41	0:00
O. Power	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	+1	0	17:23	1:00
H. Jokiharju	D	0	0	0	1	0	2	+2	0	15:36	0:00
J. Bryson	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	+1	0	11:21	0:00
D. Gilbert	D	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	9	9:58	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
U. Luukkonen	35	35	0	1.000	60:00	Win
J. Reimer	0	0	0	–	0:00

OTT Skaters

Player	Pos	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
S. Pinto	C	2	0	0	-1	0	19:33	1:59
R. Greig	C	1	1	1	-1	0	19:06	1:31
D. Batherson	RW	2	0	1	-1	0	18:45	3:47
T. Stützle	C	5	4	0	-2	0	18:07	3:37
B. Tkachuk	LW	4	2	0	-2	11	17:54	4:14
C. Giroux	RW	3	1	0	-1	0	17:48	1:45
J. Norris	C	1	3	0	-1	0	15:28	3:34
N. Cousins	C	0	2	0	-2	2	14:03	0:00
A. Gaudette	RW	3	2	0	-1	0	10:40	1:15
Z. Ostapchuk	C	2	2	0	-1	2	10:03	0:03
C. Reinhardt	LW	1	1	0	0	0	9:50	0:00
N. Gregor	LW	0	0	0	0	0	5:48	0:00
J. Sanderson	D	3	1	1	0	0	24:11	3:28
A. Zub	D	1	2	2	0	0	21:48	0:22
T. Chabot	D	2	1	1	-4	0	19:05	2:09
N. Jensen	D	2	1	3	-2	0	17:54	0:11
T. Kleven	D	2	2	0	0	0	16:46	0:00
N. Matinpalo	D	1	2	0	-1	0	15:11	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
A. Forsberg	21	17	4	.810	60:00	Loss
L. Meriläinen	0	0	0	–	0:00

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamDylan Cozens OTT Faces BUF, his team until Mar 20251 G, 1 SOG
Old teamJosh Norris BUF Faces OTT, his team until Mar 20251 SOG
HometownJack Quinn BUF Plays in his hometown2 G, 3 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	BUF 3.0, OTT 3.3	BUF 4, OTT 0
Total goals	6.3	4
Shots on goal	BUF 26.4, OTT 30.8	BUF 21, OTT 35
Win chance	OTT 55%	BUF won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
OTT B. Tkachuk	3.9	4	0.98	0	35%	0
BUF T. Thompson	3.2	3	0.95	0	39%	0
BUF R. Dahlin	2.5	1	0.75	1	16%	0
BUF J. Zucker	2.4	1	0.70	0	28%	0
OTT T. Chabot	2.3	2	0.59	0	13%	0
BUF J. Peterka	2.2	1	0.63	0	24%	0
OTT D. Batherson	2.2	2	0.86	0	27%	0
BUF D. Cozens	2.2	1	0.58	1	22%	1
OTT S. Pinto	2.2	2	0.53	0	22%	0
OTT T. Stützle	2.1	5	1.00	0	28%	0
BUF A. Tuch	2.1	2	0.74	1	27%	0
OTT J. Norris	2.1	1	0.69	0	33%	0
OTT C. Giroux	1.9	3	0.75	0	25%	0
OTT J. Sanderson	1.9	3	0.51	0	9%	0
BUF J. Quinn	1.7	3	0.51	2	19%	2
OTT R. Greig	1.6	1	0.44	0	19%	0
OTT N. Cousins	1.6	0	0.37	0	14%	0
BUF O. Power	1.4	0	0.43	0	8%	0
OTT N. Gregor	1.4	0	0.24	0	12%	0
OTT A. Gaudette	1.3	3	0.34	0	17%	0
BUF Z. Benson	1.3	0	0.37	1	15%	0
BUF B. Byram	1.2	0	0.53	0	14%	0
OTT N. Jensen	1.1	2	0.32	0	5%	0
BUF R. McLeod	1.1	5	0.38	3	15%	1
OTT A. Zub	1.1	1	0.27	0	6%	0
OTT C. Reinhardt	1.0	1	0.23	0	10%	0
BUF H. Jokiharju	0.9	1	0.19	0	4%	0
BUF P. Krebs	0.9	0	0.29	1	10%	0
OTT T. Kleven	0.8	2	0.11	0	3%	0
BUF C. Clifton	0.8	1	0.19	0	4%	0
BUF S. Lafferty	0.7	1	0.19	0	9%	0
OTT N. Matinpalo	0.6	1	0.09	0	3%	0
OTT Z. Ostapchuk	0.5	2	0.14	0	6%	0
BUF D. Gilbert	0.4	0	0.14	0	3%	0
BUF J. Bryson	0.4	0	0.14	0	2%	0

Shots on goal: 17 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.