BUF beat OTT 5-2, with the chances close: 3.62 expected goals to 3.33. OTT outshot BUF 35 to 22. A. Tuch led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). J.Kulich had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 2.0. J. Reimer stopped 33 of 35.
Team Stats
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
BUF 3.62 xGOTT 3.33 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
BUF Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Tuch | RW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 4 | +2 | 0 | 17:52 | 2:00 |
| R. McLeod | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 20:49 | 0:00 |
| J. Peterka | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 2 | 17:48 | 2:00 |
| P. Krebs | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 2 | 17:46 | 0:00 |
| T. Thompson | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 16:01 | 2:00 |
| J. Quinn | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:00 | 0:00 |
| J. Zucker | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 12:35 | 2:00 |
| J.Kulich | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 3 | -2 | 0 | 14:20 | 0:00 |
| Z. Benson | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 12:18 | 0:00 |
| S. Lafferty | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 10:28 | 0:00 |
| B. Malenstyn | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 10:09 | 0:00 |
| T. Kozak | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 5:46 | 0:00 |
| M. Samuelsson | D | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +4 | 0 | 22:33 | 0:00 |
| R. Dahlin | D | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | +3 | 0 | 22:10 | 1:30 |
| C. Clifton | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 4 | +1 | 0 | 19:11 | 0:00 |
| B. Byram | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 21:24 | 0:00 |
| O. Power | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 19:15 | 0:30 |
| J. Bernard-Docker | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | -1 | 2 | 13:35 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Reimer | 35 | 33 | 2 | .943 | 60:00 | Win |
| U. Luukkonen | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
OTT Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C. Giroux | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 17:12 | 4:48 |
| M. Amadio | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 15:48 | 0:00 |
| T. Stützle | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 23:42 | 5:18 |
| R. Greig | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 19:01 | 3:10 |
| D. Batherson | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | -5 | 0 | 18:13 | 3:52 |
| F. Zetterlund | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17:32 | 3:37 |
| D. Cozens | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | -4 | 0 | 17:18 | 4:07 |
| S. Pinto | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 15:33 | 0:00 |
| D. Perron | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 15:20 | 3:55 |
| A. Gaudette | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:29 | 4:16 |
| A. Crookshank | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 8:22 | 0:13 |
| M. Highmore | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6:36 | 0:00 |
| J. Sanderson | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 25:50 | 4:06 |
| A. Zub | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 17:15 | 0:01 |
| T. Kleven | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 11:53 | 0:00 |
| T. Chabot | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 25:08 | 3:54 |
| N. Jensen | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 19:46 | 0:13 |
| N. Matinpalo | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 11:07 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| L. Ullmark | 21 | 17 | 4 | .810 | 56:55 | Loss |
| A. Forsberg | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Storylines That Played Out
As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | BUF 3.3, OTT 3.4 | BUF 5, OTT 2 |
| Total goals | 6.7 | 7 |
| Shots on goal | BUF 27.8, OTT 29.8 | BUF 22, OTT 35 |
| Win chance | OTT 53% | BUF won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF T. Thompson | 3.1 | 2 | 0.88 | 1 | 38% | 1 |
| BUF R. Dahlin | 2.4 | 2 | 0.68 | 2 | 15% | 1 |
| BUF J. Peterka | 2.4 | 2 | 0.75 | 1 | 27% | 0 |
| OTT D. Cozens | 2.3 | 2 | 0.67 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| BUF A. Tuch | 2.3 | 2 | 0.74 | 2 | 29% | 1 |
| OTT T. Chabot | 2.2 | 1 | 0.60 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| OTT J. Sanderson | 2.2 | 4 | 0.66 | 1 | 11% | 1 |
| OTT D. Batherson | 2.1 | 1 | 0.79 | 0 | 25% | 0 |
| BUF J.Kulich | 2.0 | 5 | 0.40 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| BUF J. Zucker | 1.9 | 2 | 0.59 | 1 | 23% | 0 |
| OTT S. Pinto | 1.9 | 3 | 0.58 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| OTT F. Zetterlund | 1.9 | 3 | 0.47 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| OTT T. Stützle | 1.9 | 4 | 0.98 | 0 | 27% | 0 |
| OTT D. Perron | 1.7 | 4 | 0.64 | 0 | 25% | 0 |
| BUF J. Quinn | 1.7 | 1 | 0.54 | 1 | 20% | 0 |
| OTT R. Greig | 1.7 | 3 | 0.53 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| OTT C. Giroux | 1.6 | 2 | 0.71 | 1 | 23% | 1 |
| OTT A. Crookshank | 1.6 | 1 | 0.29 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| BUF Z. Benson | 1.5 | 2 | 0.40 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| BUF R. McLeod | 1.5 | 2 | 0.60 | 1 | 21% | 1 |
| BUF O. Power | 1.4 | 0 | 0.37 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| OTT A. Zub | 1.1 | 2 | 0.33 | 1 | 7% | 0 |
| OTT M. Amadio | 1.1 | 0 | 0.39 | 1 | 18% | 0 |
| BUF B. Byram | 1.1 | 0 | 0.42 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| OTT N. Jensen | 1.1 | 0 | 0.31 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| BUF C. Clifton | 1.1 | 0 | 0.24 | 1 | 4% | 0 |
| OTT N. Matinpalo | 1.0 | 1 | 0.08 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
| BUF P. Krebs | 1.0 | 1 | 0.30 | 1 | 10% | 1 |
| OTT T. Kleven | 1.0 | 1 | 0.14 | 1 | 5% | 0 |
| BUF M. Samuelsson | 0.9 | 0 | 0.19 | 2 | 4% | 0 |
| OTT M. Highmore | 0.9 | 1 | 0.22 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| BUF S. Lafferty | 0.9 | 1 | 0.19 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| BUF B. Malenstyn | 0.8 | 0 | 0.17 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| OTT A. Gaudette | 0.8 | 2 | 0.22 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| BUF T. Kozak | 0.7 | 0 | 0.27 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| BUF J. Bernard-Docker | 0.6 | 0 | 0.16 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 20 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.