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Game Recap
BUF5
PIT1
BUF beat PIT 5-1, and the chances backed it up: 3.53 expected goals to 2.63. J. Norris led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). U. Luukkonen stopped 27 of 28.
Team Stats
BUFPIT
26Shots on goal28
3.53Expected goals2.63
59Shot attempts56
135v5 shots on goal20
1/6Power play0/5
20Hits18
11Blocked shots11
10Penalty minutes23
13Giveaways17
3Takeaways2
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
BUF 3.53 xGPIT 2.63 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
BUF Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Norris | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:41 | 6:58 |
| T. Thompson | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 18:43 | 7:50 |
| J. Doan | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:28 | 7:07 |
| R. McLeod | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 2 | 18:23 | 3:49 |
| A. Tuch | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 17:37 | 3:43 |
| N. Ostlund | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 16:42 | 3:17 |
| B. Malenstyn | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 14:25 | 0:04 |
| J. Zucker | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 14:11 | 7:38 |
| Z. Benson | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 13:22 | 0:02 |
| J. Quinn | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 11:49 | 2:46 |
| P. Krebs | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 10:35 | 0:00 |
| J. Dunne | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8:37 | 0:00 |
| O. Power | D | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +3 | 0 | 20:45 | 1:28 |
| B. Byram | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 22:32 | 5:10 |
| M. Samuelsson | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | +3 | 0 | 21:19 | 0:00 |
| R. Dahlin | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 4 | 21:29 | 4:55 |
| M. Kesselring | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:58 | 0:00 |
| Z. Metsa | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:00 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| U. Luukkonen | 28 | 27 | 1 | .964 | 59:24 | Win |
| C. Ellis | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
PIT Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B. Rust | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 19:53 | 7:10 |
| B. Kindel | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 2 | 14:52 | 2:13 |
| R. Rakell | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 18:34 | 7:13 |
| E. Chinakhov | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -4 | 0 | 17:27 | 6:00 |
| B. Lizotte | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16:44 | 1:02 |
| A. Mantha | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 15:58 | 7:13 |
| N. Acciari | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 15:27 | 0:01 |
| T. Novak | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 15:03 | 1:54 |
| C. Dewar | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:43 | 0:00 |
| J. Brazeau | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 14:13 | 2:05 |
| A. Hayes | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 12:43 | 0:37 |
| E. Malkin | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17 | 5:54 | 2:28 |
| E. Karlsson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 2 | 23:05 | 7:09 |
| R. Shea | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 18:30 | 0:00 |
| S. Girard | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -1 | 0 | 18:02 | 0:10 |
| C. Clifton | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 17:55 | 0:00 |
| K. Letang | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | -3 | 0 | 17:09 | 2:14 |
| P. Wotherspoon | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 14:54 | 0:05 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Silovs | 25 | 21 | 4 | .840 | 55:54 | Loss |
| S. Skinner | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Lines at 5-on-5
BUF
Line 1J. Doan10:31N. Ostlund11:42J. Norris9:44
Line 2T. Thompson9:22P. Krebs9:26A. Tuch8:46
Line 3B. Malenstyn9:12Z. Benson8:22J. Dunne7:37
Pair 2R. Dahlin12:01M. Kesselring11:14
Pair 3M. Samuelsson13:05O. Power12:41
PIT
Line 1B. Lizotte10:43N. Acciari8:58C. Dewar9:10
Line 2B. Rust8:26R. Rakell8:54E. Chinakhov9:59
Line 3A. Mantha7:07J. Brazeau10:37B. Kindel9:00
Pair 1R. Shea11:49C. Clifton11:22
Pair 3P. Wotherspoon11:19E. Karlsson10:31
From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | BUF 3.1, PIT 3.5 | BUF 5, PIT 1 |
| Total goals | 6.6 | 6 |
| Shots on goal | BUF 25.9, PIT 31.9 | BUF 26, PIT 28 |
| Win chance | PIT 58% | BUF won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF T. Thompson | 3.4 | 1 | 0.95 | 1 | 39% | 0 |
| PIT R. Rakell | 2.8 | 2 | 0.75 | 0 | 29% | 0 |
| PIT E. Malkin | 2.8 | 1 | 0.93 | 0 | 28% | 0 |
| PIT B. Rust | 2.7 | 5 | 0.83 | 1 | 32% | 1 |
| BUF R. Dahlin | 2.6 | 4 | 0.83 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| BUF A. Tuch | 2.4 | 3 | 0.77 | 1 | 30% | 1 |
| PIT E. Chinakhov | 2.3 | 1 | 0.51 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| PIT B. Kindel | 2.3 | 0 | 0.49 | 1 | 21% | 0 |
| PIT E. Karlsson | 2.2 | 3 | 0.68 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| BUF J. Quinn | 2.0 | 2 | 0.58 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| BUF J. Doan | 2.0 | 3 | 0.57 | 1 | 22% | 0 |
| BUF J. Zucker | 1.9 | 1 | 0.58 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| PIT A. Mantha | 1.9 | 2 | 0.69 | 0 | 25% | 0 |
| PIT T. Novak | 1.8 | 1 | 0.56 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| PIT K. Letang | 1.8 | 1 | 0.46 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| BUF O. Power | 1.7 | 1 | 0.39 | 2 | 7% | 1 |
| PIT A. Hayes | 1.6 | 2 | 0.34 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| PIT C. Dewar | 1.6 | 2 | 0.36 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| PIT J. Brazeau | 1.6 | 3 | 0.43 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| BUF J. Norris | 1.5 | 2 | 0.56 | 2 | 26% | 1 |
| BUF Z. Benson | 1.5 | 0 | 0.41 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| BUF M. Samuelsson | 1.4 | 1 | 0.39 | 1 | 9% | 1 |
| BUF R. McLeod | 1.3 | 1 | 0.61 | 1 | 18% | 1 |
| PIT N. Acciari | 1.3 | 2 | 0.25 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| BUF B. Byram | 1.2 | 2 | 0.47 | 1 | 12% | 0 |
| BUF P. Krebs | 1.1 | 1 | 0.39 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| BUF M. Kesselring | 1.1 | 2 | 0.17 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| BUF N. Ostlund | 1.0 | 1 | 0.39 | 1 | 16% | 0 |
| PIT S. Girard | 1.0 | 0 | 0.30 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| PIT B. Lizotte | 1.0 | 2 | 0.38 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| PIT R. Shea | 1.0 | 1 | 0.31 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| PIT P. Wotherspoon | 1.0 | 0 | 0.24 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| PIT C. Clifton | 0.9 | 0 | 0.24 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| BUF J. Dunne | 0.9 | 1 | 0.13 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| BUF B. Malenstyn | 0.8 | 0 | 0.15 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| BUF Z. Metsa | 0.6 | 0 | 0.13 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 26 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.