Game Recap: BUF 3, TBL 4 (OT), February 3, 2026

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Game Recap

BUF3

Final/OTTue, Feb 3, 2026Every game that night

TBL4

TBL beat BUF 4-3 in overtime, and the chances backed it up: 3.39 expected goals to 2.53. TBL outshot BUF 35 to 26. N. Kucherov led the way with 4 points (1 G, 3 A). R. Dahlin had 7 shots on goal against our projection of 2.5. A. Vasilevskiy stopped 23 of 26.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	OT	T
BUF	1	0	2	0	3
TBL	1	0	2	1	4

1st 10:24TBLN. Kucherov0.09 xG
1st 16:53BUFM. Samuelsson0.02 xG
3rd 4:08BUFM. Samuelsson0.03 xG
3rd 8:53TBLO. BjorkstrandPP0.25 xG
3rd 14:53BUFJ. DoanPP0.14 xG
3rd 19:34TBLD. Raddysh0.06 xG
OT 4:45TBLJ. Guentzel0.31 xG

Team Stats

BUFTBL

26Shots on goal35

2.53Expected goals3.39

49Shot attempts58

135v5 shots on goal24

1/3Power play1/2

13Hits26

9Blocked shots10

4Penalty minutes6

22Giveaways14

9Takeaways6

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

BUF 2.53 xGTBL 3.39 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

BUF26 on goal, 3 scored

TBL34 on goal, 4 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

BUF Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
T. Thompson	C	0	1	1	5	1	0	-1	0	22:09	4:30
R. McLeod	C	0	1	1	2	0	1	0	0	19:31	1:28
J. Quinn	RW	0	1	1	2	1	0	0	0	17:50	4:26
J. Doan	RW	1	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	16:29	4:30
A. Tuch	RW	0	0	0	1	0	1	-2	0	22:38	1:28
P. Krebs	C	0	0	0	1	3	0	-2	0	17:47	0:00
J. Zucker	LW	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	17:10	4:30
N. Ostlund	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	14:36	1:28
K. Helenius	C	0	0	0	1	3	1	+1	0	13:47	0:00
T. Kozak	C	0	0	0	0	1	1	+1	0	12:25	0:00
B. Malenstyn	LW	0	0	0	1	2	0	+1	0	9:08	0:00
I. Rosen	RW	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	8:17	1:27
M. Samuelsson	D	2	0	2	3	2	0	+1	0	24:01	0:00
R. Dahlin	D	0	1	1	7	0	1	0	0	27:47	4:27
B. Byram	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	-1	2	23:37	1:31
O. Power	D	0	0	0	1	0	2	-1	0	21:51	0:05
Z. Metsa	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	11:12	0:00
J. Bryson	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	11:01	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
C. Ellis	35	31	4	.886	64:24	OT loss
A. Lyon	0	0	0	–	0:00

TBL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
N. Kucherov	RW	1	3	4	7	0	1	+1	0	22:24	3:20
J. Guentzel	C	1	1	2	1	1	0	+1	0	26:07	3:20
B. Hagel	LW	0	1	1	4	1	0	0	0	25:40	3:20
O. Bjorkstrand	RW	1	0	1	2	1	0	+1	0	15:04	2:35
Y. Gourde	C	0	0	0	2	1	0	+1	0	20:01	0:45
Z. Girgensons	C	0	0	0	2	4	0	0	0	17:07	0:00
P. Holmberg	RW	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	16:31	0:00
G. Goncalves	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	2	13:52	0:00
D. James	C	0	0	0	2	2	0	0	0	13:02	0:00
J. Finley	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	7:43	0:00
S. Sabourin	RW	0	0	0	1	4	1	0	0	6:03	0:00
C. Douglas	C	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	2	5:45	0:00
D. Raddysh	D	1	1	2	3	2	2	-1	0	25:48	2:51
J. Moser	D	0	1	1	2	0	3	-1	2	23:51	0:00
R. McDonagh	D	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	19:40	0:00
E. Cernak	D	0	0	0	2	0	3	0	0	18:04	0:00
V. Hedman	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	+1	0	17:39	0:29
D. Carlile	D	0	0	0	1	3	0	+1	0	15:08	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
A. Vasilevskiy	26	23	3	.885	63:33	Win
J. Johansson	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

BUF

Line 1A. Tuch16:00P. Krebs15:56T. Thompson14:58

Line 2R. McLeod14:26J. Quinn12:15J. Zucker12:40

Line 3N. Ostlund12:04K. Helenius13:32J. Doan10:29

Line 4B. Malenstyn7:35T. Kozak10:26I. Rosen6:50

Pair 1B. Byram18:58O. Power20:07

Pair 2M. Samuelsson18:40R. Dahlin19:02

Pair 3J. Bryson10:50Z. Metsa10:57

TBL

Line 1N. Kucherov15:51B. Hagel15:54J. Guentzel14:55

Line 2Z. Girgensons14:53P. Holmberg15:34Y. Gourde15:33

Line 3G. Goncalves12:30D. James12:19O. Bjorkstrand11:35

Line 4C. Douglas5:45J. Finley6:46S. Sabourin5:56

Pair 1D. Raddysh20:32J. Moser20:55

Pair 2D. Carlile14:11V. Hedman14:09

Pair 3R. McDonagh15:00E. Cernak13:27

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamZemgus Girgensons TBL Faces BUF, his team until Apr 20242 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	BUF 2.8, TBL 4.1	BUF 3, TBL 4
Total goals	6.9	7
Shots on goal	BUF 24.3, TBL 31.1	BUF 26, TBL 35
Win chance	TBL 69%	TBL won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
TBL N. Kucherov	3.3	7	1.77	4	40%	1
TBL B. Hagel	3.3	4	1.24	1	39%	0
BUF T. Thompson	3.1	5	0.82	1	36%	0
TBL J. Guentzel	2.9	1	1.15	2	41%	1
TBL D. Raddysh	2.8	3	0.98	2	19%	1
BUF R. Dahlin	2.5	7	0.67	1	16%	0
BUF A. Tuch	2.2	1	0.66	0	27%	0
BUF J. Zucker	2.0	0	0.56	0	23%	0
BUF J. Doan	1.9	1	0.52	1	20%	1
BUF J. Quinn	1.8	2	0.50	1	18%	0
TBL O. Bjorkstrand	1.7	2	0.55	1	21%	1
TBL Y. Gourde	1.6	2	0.55	0	18%	0
BUF O. Power	1.6	1	0.32	0	6%	0
TBL P. Holmberg	1.6	0	0.39	0	17%	0
BUF K. Helenius	1.5	1	0.33	0	11%	0
TBL J. Moser	1.4	2	0.37	1	8%	0
TBL D. James	1.4	2	0.37	0	15%	0
TBL Z. Girgensons	1.4	2	0.27	0	14%	0
TBL V. Hedman	1.3	1	0.52	0	8%	0
BUF M. Samuelsson	1.2	3	0.32	2	7%	2
BUF B. Byram	1.1	0	0.36	0	10%	0
BUF R. McLeod	1.1	2	0.49	1	16%	0
TBL G. Goncalves	1.0	1	0.37	0	14%	0
TBL R. McDonagh	1.0	2	0.36	0	5%	0
BUF N. Ostlund	1.0	0	0.34	0	16%	0
BUF P. Krebs	1.0	1	0.29	0	9%	0
TBL D. Carlile	0.9	1	0.14	0	5%	0
TBL E. Cernak	0.9	2	0.21	0	3%	0
BUF I. Rosen	0.8	0	0.21	0	9%	0
BUF B. Malenstyn	0.7	1	0.12	0	6%	0
TBL C. Douglas	0.7	1	0.11	0	5%	0
TBL S. Sabourin	0.6	1	0.22	0	8%	0
TBL J. Finley	0.6	1	0.17	0	10%	0
BUF T. Kozak	0.6	0	0.13	0	8%	0
BUF Z. Metsa	0.4	0	0.07	0	3%	0
BUF J. Bryson	0.3	1	0.07	0	1%	0

Shots on goal: 25 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.