Game Recap: BUF 6, TBL 2, February 28, 2026

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Game Recap

BUF6

FinalSat, Feb 28, 2026Every game that night

TBL2

BUF beat TBL 6-2, and the chances backed it up: 4.52 expected goals to 3.36. R. Dahlin led the way with 3 points (1 G, 2 A). B. Hagel had 8 shots on goal against our projection of 3.2. U. Luukkonen stopped 36 of 38.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
BUF	4	1	1	6
TBL	0	1	1	2

1st 5:25BUFR. Dahlin0.09 xG
1st 6:15BUFJ. Norris0.09 xG
1st 8:18BUFJ. Norris0.11 xG
1st 15:06BUFT. Thompson0.13 xG
2nd 1:54BUFZ. Metsa0.21 xG
2nd 16:03TBLD. James0.23 xG
3rd 3:43BUFA. TuchPP0.07 xG
3rd 5:27TBLV. Hedman0.05 xG

Team Stats

BUFTBL

35Shots on goal38

4.52Expected goals3.36

54Shot attempts64

205v5 shots on goal31

1/5Power play0/3

16Hits28

14Blocked shots5

12Penalty minutes28

15Giveaways11

2Takeaways6

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

BUF 4.52 xGTBL 3.36 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

BUF34 on goal, 6 scored

TBL37 on goal, 2 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

BUF Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
J. Norris	C	2	0	2	2	0	0	+2	0	15:03	3:32
A. Tuch	RW	1	0	1	5	1	0	-1	2	18:15	3:57
J. Doan	RW	0	1	1	2	1	1	+2	0	16:08	3:42
T. Thompson	C	1	0	1	6	0	0	-1	0	16:00	4:05
J. Quinn	RW	0	1	1	2	1	0	+2	0	14:21	3:49
Z. Benson	LW	0	1	1	0	2	0	+1	2	13:39	0:20
P. Krebs	C	0	1	1	0	5	0	-1	0	10:59	0:00
R. McLeod	C	0	0	0	2	0	1	+1	0	20:21	4:05
N. Ostlund	C	0	0	0	0	1	2	+1	0	14:46	3:58
T. Kozak	C	0	0	0	0	0	1	+1	0	13:04	0:07
B. Malenstyn	LW	0	0	0	1	4	2	0	0	12:26	0:06
J. Zucker	LW	0	0	0	1	0	1	+2	0	12:05	3:39
R. Dahlin	D	1	2	3	2	0	0	+2	2	24:32	4:07
Z. Metsa	D	1	1	2	3	0	2	+2	0	13:08	0:00
B. Byram	D	0	1	1	4	0	2	+2	0	22:45	4:06
O. Power	D	0	1	1	4	0	0	+2	0	19:59	0:22
M. Samuelsson	D	0	0	0	1	1	2	-1	2	24:08	0:00
M. Kesselring	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	4	8:40	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
U. Luukkonen	38	36	2	.947	59:41	Win
C. Ellis	0	0	0	–	0:00

TBL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
O. Bjorkstrand	RW	0	1	1	4	2	0	-1	0	16:24	3:46
D. James	C	1	0	1	1	2	0	0	0	13:06	0:00
B. Hagel	LW	0	0	0	8	0	1	-1	0	21:05	2:02
N. Kucherov	RW	0	0	0	4	0	0	-1	0	20:11	4:24
B. Point	C	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	2	17:52	4:06
Y. Gourde	C	0	0	0	1	5	0	-1	0	15:59	0:22
Z. Girgensons	C	0	0	0	3	3	0	-1	0	15:03	0:04
A. Cirelli	C	0	0	0	1	2	0	-2	2	14:01	0:06
P. Holmberg	RW	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	13:52	0:04
J. Guentzel	C	0	0	0	3	0	0	-1	14	13:02	2:28
G. Goncalves	C	0	0	0	2	3	0	-1	0	8:17	0:06
V. Hedman	D	1	1	2	2	1	1	+1	2	16:53	1:01
D. Raddysh	D	0	1	1	3	1	0	+1	2	21:18	4:07
E. Lilleberg	D	0	0	0	3	3	0	-1	2	16:45	0:04
R. McDonagh	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	-3	0	16:16	0:00
C. D'Astous	D	0	0	0	0	3	0	-2	4	15:50	0:10
J. Moser	D	0	0	0	2	1	1	-1	0	15:46	0:00
E. Cernak	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	-1	0	14:39	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
A. Vasilevskiy	14	9	5	.643	21:54	Loss
J. Johansson	21	20	1	.952	38:06

Lines at 5-on-5

BUF

Line 1T. Kozak11:32Z. Benson12:32B. Malenstyn9:48

Line 2J. Doan11:23N. Ostlund10:48J. Norris9:12

Line 3R. McLeod10:04J. Quinn10:08J. Zucker8:26

Line 4A. Tuch10:10P. Krebs10:41T. Thompson9:47

Pair 1M. Samuelsson18:35R. Dahlin17:47

Pair 2B. Byram11:24O. Power16:27

TBL

Line 1N. Kucherov13:13B. Point12:04G. Goncalves8:11

Line 2O. Bjorkstrand12:10D. James11:48B. Hagel14:02

Line 3Y. Gourde11:02P. Holmberg12:50Z. Girgensons10:39

Line 4J. Guentzel8:26A. Cirelli9:26

Pair 1D. Raddysh13:43J. Moser10:31

Pair 2E. Lilleberg14:52C. D'Astous13:39

Pair 3R. McDonagh11:00E. Cernak9:57

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamZemgus Girgensons TBL Faces BUF, his team until Apr 20243 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	BUF 2.8, TBL 4.1	BUF 6, TBL 2
Total goals	6.9	8
Shots on goal	BUF 25.2, TBL 31.6	BUF 35, TBL 38
Win chance	TBL 69%	BUF won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
TBL N. Kucherov	3.5	4	1.83	0	41%	0
BUF T. Thompson	3.2	6	0.85	1	37%	1
TBL B. Hagel	3.2	8	1.15	0	37%	0
TBL J. Guentzel	3.0	3	1.18	0	41%	0
TBL D. Raddysh	2.7	3	0.90	1	17%	0
BUF R. Dahlin	2.6	2	0.65	3	15%	1
TBL B. Point	2.4	0	1.00	0	38%	0
BUF A. Tuch	2.3	5	0.67	1	28%	1
BUF J. Zucker	2.0	1	0.54	0	22%	0
BUF J. Quinn	1.9	2	0.53	1	18%	0
BUF J. Doan	1.9	2	0.51	1	20%	0
TBL O. Bjorkstrand	1.9	4	0.60	1	22%	0
TBL Y. Gourde	1.7	1	0.53	0	17%	0
TBL D. James	1.7	1	0.42	1	17%	1
BUF O. Power	1.7	4	0.30	1	6%	0
BUF Z. Benson	1.6	0	0.41	1	14%	0
TBL A. Cirelli	1.6	1	0.56	0	21%	0
TBL P. Holmberg	1.6	1	0.41	0	17%	0
TBL Z. Girgensons	1.5	3	0.28	0	14%	0
BUF J. Norris	1.4	2	0.48	2	23%	2
TBL V. Hedman	1.3	2	0.48	2	8%	1
BUF M. Samuelsson	1.3	1	0.31	0	7%	0
TBL J. Moser	1.3	2	0.32	0	7%	0
BUF B. Byram	1.2	4	0.37	1	10%	0
BUF R. McLeod	1.2	2	0.51	0	16%	0
BUF M. Kesselring	1.1	0	0.14	0	3%	0
TBL G. Goncalves	1.1	2	0.43	0	15%	0
TBL C. D'Astous	1.1	0	0.38	0	6%	0
BUF P. Krebs	1.0	0	0.32	1	10%	0
BUF N. Ostlund	1.0	0	0.32	0	15%	0
TBL E. Cernak	1.0	0	0.22	0	4%	0
TBL R. McDonagh	1.0	0	0.36	0	5%	0
BUF B. Malenstyn	0.8	1	0.13	0	6%	0
TBL E. Lilleberg	0.8	3	0.23	0	3%	0
BUF T. Kozak	0.6	0	0.13	0	8%	0
BUF Z. Metsa	0.4	3	0.06	2	2%	1

Shots on goal: 22 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.4 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.