Game Recap: BUF 3, TOR 5, December 15, 2024

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Game Recap

BUF3

FinalSun, Dec 15, 2024Every game that night

TOR5

TOR beat BUF 5-3, and the chances backed it up: 5.39 expected goals to 2.40. TOR outshot BUF 41 to 27. J. Tavares scored three for TOR. O. Ekman-Larsson had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.5. D. Hildeby stopped 24 of 27.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
BUF	2	1	0	3
TOR	1	3	1	5

1st 1:03BUFJ. QuinnPP0.07 xG
1st 2:46BUFA. Tuch0.06 xG
1st 15:45TORM. Domi0.23 xG
2nd 9:11BUFJ. Quinn0.16 xG
2nd 11:20TORN. Robertson0.10 xG
2nd 12:41TORJ. TavaresPP0.18 xG
2nd 13:51TORJ. Tavares0.11 xG
3rd 17:48TORJ. TavaresEN0.58 xG

Team Stats

BUFTOR

27Shots on goal41

2.40Expected goals5.39

50Shot attempts78

225v5 shots on goal32

1/2Power play1/4

13Hits37

16Blocked shots4

18Penalty minutes4

11Giveaways11

1Takeaways9

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

BUF 2.40 xGTOR 5.39 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

BUF27 on goal, 3 scored

TOR41 on goal, 5 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

BUF Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
J. Quinn	RW	2	0	2	5	1	0	-1	0	18:18	0:46
J. Peterka	RW	0	2	2	0	0	0	-2	2	17:33	0:46
A. Tuch	RW	1	0	1	2	1	0	+1	0	18:25	0:13
Z. Benson	LW	0	1	1	1	0	1	0	0	17:27	0:46
T. Thompson	C	0	1	1	2	0	0	+1	0	17:11	0:46
D. Cozens	C	0	0	0	0	4	0	-2	10	14:33	0:00
J. Greenway	LW	0	0	0	0	1	1	-1	0	14:13	0:00
P. Krebs	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	12:57	0:00
R. McLeod	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	2	12:43	0:00
J.Kulich	C	0	0	0	2	2	1	-1	0	12:23	0:00
B. Malenstyn	LW	0	0	0	3	2	0	0	0	10:58	0:00
J. Zucker	LW	0	0	0	0	1	0	-2	0	9:51	0:00
B. Byram	D	0	1	1	3	0	4	-1	0	25:53	0:46
M. Samuelsson	D	0	1	1	2	0	2	+1	0	23:08	0:00
O. Power	D	0	0	0	3	0	5	0	0	24:44	0:00
H. Jokiharju	D	0	0	0	3	1	1	0	4	20:59	0:00
J. Bryson	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	-2	0	13:05	0:00
D. Gilbert	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	-2	0	10:47	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
D. Levi	40	36	4	.900	57:59	Loss
U. Luukkonen	0	0	0	–	0:00

TOR Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
J. Tavares	C	3	0	3	6	2	0	+1	0	21:02	5:13
M. Domi	C	1	1	2	2	0	0	+2	0	15:25	1:41
B. McMann	C	0	2	2	2	3	0	+3	0	15:13	0:00
N. Robertson	LW	1	1	2	1	4	0	+2	0	13:26	0:00
W. Nylander	RW	0	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	22:18	6:22
M. Marner	RW	0	1	1	2	3	0	0	0	21:12	5:11
A. Matthews	C	0	1	1	5	0	0	-1	0	20:54	5:12
M. Knies	LW	0	1	1	2	2	0	0	0	16:21	1:40
M. Pacioretty	LW	0	0	0	4	5	0	0	0	17:55	1:42
C. Dewar	C	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	7:50	0:00
R. Reaves	RW	0	0	0	0	5	1	-1	0	7:07	0:00
S. Lorentz	C	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	6:50	0:00
C. Tanev	D	0	1	1	0	0	0	+2	4	19:33	0:00
O. Ekman-Larsson	D	0	1	1	5	1	0	+2	0	17:41	1:49
M. Rielly	D	0	0	0	5	0	1	0	0	21:57	5:04
J. McCabe	D	0	0	0	3	2	1	-1	0	19:51	0:31
S. Benoit	D	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	17:39	0:00
P. Myers	D	0	0	0	2	2	0	+1	0	17:00	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
D. Hildeby	27	24	3	.889	60:00	Win
J. Woll	0	0	0	–	0:00

Storylines That Played Out

HometownOwen Power BUF Plays near home (born in Mississauga)3 SOG
HometownRyan McLeod BUF Plays near home (born in Mississauga)1 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	BUF 2.9, TOR 3.4	BUF 3, TOR 5
Total goals	6.3	8
Shots on goal	BUF 28.0, TOR 30.1	BUF 27, TOR 41
Win chance	TOR 58%	TOR won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
TOR A. Matthews	4.2	5	1.22	1	48%	0
TOR W. Nylander	3.6	1	1.14	1	40%	0
TOR J. Tavares	3.2	6	0.89	3	33%	3
BUF T. Thompson	3.2	2	0.86	1	37%	0
TOR B. McMann	2.4	2	0.43	2	23%	0
TOR M. Marner	2.3	2	1.25	1	32%	0
BUF A. Tuch	2.3	2	0.74	1	26%	1
BUF J. Peterka	2.2	0	0.53	2	23%	0
BUF D. Cozens	2.2	0	0.53	0	21%	0
BUF J. Zucker	2.2	0	0.54	0	22%	0
TOR M. Pacioretty	2.1	4	0.59	0	21%	0
BUF J.Kulich	2.0	2	0.25	0	16%	0
TOR M. Knies	1.9	2	0.65	1	26%	0
TOR M. Rielly	1.8	5	0.63	0	10%	0
TOR M. Domi	1.7	2	0.57	2	15%	1
BUF J. Quinn	1.6	5	0.40	2	16%	2
TOR N. Robertson	1.6	1	0.33	2	16%	1
BUF O. Power	1.6	3	0.45	0	7%	0
TOR O. Ekman-Larsson	1.5	5	0.38	1	8%	0
BUF Z. Benson	1.4	1	0.42	1	16%	0
BUF J. Greenway	1.4	0	0.32	0	13%	0
BUF B. Byram	1.4	3	0.49	1	12%	0
TOR P. Myers	1.3	2	0.20	0	5%	0
BUF R. McLeod	1.2	1	0.39	0	16%	0
BUF H. Jokiharju	1.1	3	0.19	0	4%	0
BUF P. Krebs	1.0	0	0.31	0	10%	0
TOR J. McCabe	0.9	3	0.32	0	7%	0
TOR C. Dewar	0.9	0	0.21	0	9%	0
BUF M. Samuelsson	0.9	2	0.12	1	2%	0
TOR S. Benoit	0.8	0	0.12	0	3%	0
TOR S. Lorentz	0.8	1	0.18	0	10%	0
BUF B. Malenstyn	0.8	3	0.18	0	7%	0
TOR C. Tanev	0.7	0	0.25	1	4%	0
TOR R. Reaves	0.5	0	0.14	0	6%	0
BUF D. Gilbert	0.5	0	0.15	0	3%	0
BUF J. Bryson	0.4	0	0.12	0	2%	0

Shots on goal: 19 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.