Game Recap: BUF 3, VAN 2, January 21, 2025

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Game Recap

BUF3

FinalTue, Jan 21, 2025Every game that night

VAN2

BUF beat VAN 3-2 despite fewer good chances: 1.98 expected goals to 2.60. VAN outshot BUF 34 to 26. J.Kulich led the way with 3 points (1 G, 2 A). B. Boeser had 8 shots on goal against our projection of 1.9. U. Luukkonen stopped 32 of 34.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
BUF	1	0	2	3
VAN	0	2	0	2

1st 17:34BUFT. Thompson0.06 xG
2nd 3:05VANP. Di Giuseppe0.12 xG
2nd 10:29VANE. Pettersson0.13 xG
3rd 8:42BUFJ.Kulich0.06 xG
3rd 13:33BUFJ. Peterka0.12 xG

Team Stats

BUFVAN

26Shots on goal34

1.98Expected goals2.60

55Shot attempts54

255v5 shots on goal24

0/2Power play0/1

19Hits15

11Blocked shots12

2Penalty minutes4

22Giveaways11

3Takeaways3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

BUF 1.98 xGVAN 2.60 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

BUF26 on goal, 3 scored

VAN34 on goal, 2 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

BUF Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
J.Kulich	C	1	2	3	3	2	0	+1	0	17:47	1:04
J. Peterka	RW	1	1	2	4	0	0	+1	0	21:08	2:54
T. Thompson	C	1	0	1	5	0	1	+2	0	19:17	2:24
P. Krebs	C	0	0	0	3	4	0	0	0	21:42	2:50
A. Tuch	RW	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	0	19:47	1:36
J. Quinn	RW	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	2	17:58	2:57
Z. Benson	LW	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	17:21	0:59
D. Cozens	C	0	0	0	3	2	0	0	0	16:38	1:05
T. Kozak	C	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	16:06	0:00
B. Malenstyn	LW	0	0	0	1	4	0	0	0	7:48	0:00
S. Lafferty	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	6:28	0:00
R. Dahlin	D	0	2	2	1	0	0	+3	0	23:10	3:00
O. Power	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	23:01	1:00
B. Byram	D	0	0	0	1	0	2	+3	0	22:44	0:11
M. Samuelsson	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	18:10	0:00
C. Clifton	D	0	0	0	0	4	1	-2	0	11:04	0:00
H. Jokiharju	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	10:03	0:00
D. Gilbert	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	-2	0	7:48	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
U. Luukkonen	34	32	2	.941	60:00	Win
J. Reimer	0	0	0	–	0:00

VAN Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
J. Miller	C	0	1	1	4	1	1	+1	0	20:14	1:59
E. Pettersson	C	1	0	1	3	0	1	-1	0	17:54	1:29
B. Boeser	RW	0	1	1	8	1	1	-1	0	17:28	1:58
P. Di Giuseppe	LW	1	0	1	1	1	0	+1	0	10:18	0:00
C. Garland	RW	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	19:18	1:19
P. Suter	C	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	17:47	0:31
K. Sherwood	LW	0	0	0	2	5	0	-1	0	15:27	0:01
J. DeBrusk	LW	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	15:11	0:41
D. Heinen	LW	0	0	0	1	1	0	-2	0	14:03	0:00
T. Blueger	C	0	0	0	1	0	1	-1	0	13:32	0:00
M. Sasson	C	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	9:41	0:00
N. Hoglander	LW	0	0	0	0	1	0	+1	0	9:37	0:00
Q. Hughes	D	0	1	1	2	0	1	-2	2	26:10	2:00
C. Soucy	D	0	1	1	2	0	3	+1	2	17:39	0:00
F. Hronek	D	0	0	0	4	0	0	-1	0	23:31	0:02
V. Desharnais	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	+1	0	17:39	0:00
D. Forbort	D	0	0	0	1	0	2	0	0	17:15	0:00
M. Friedman	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	15:01	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
T. Demko	26	23	3	.885	58:15	Loss
A. Silovs	0	0	0	–	0:00

Storylines That Played Out

HometownZach Benson BUF Plays near home (born in Chilliwack)0 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	BUF 2.7, VAN 3.3	BUF 3, VAN 2
Total goals	6.0	5
Shots on goal	BUF 24.9, VAN 26.9	BUF 26, VAN 34
Win chance	VAN 60%	BUF won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
BUF T. Thompson	3.0	5	0.89	1	35%	1
VAN Q. Hughes	2.6	2	1.22	1	17%	0
VAN C. Garland	2.4	1	0.78	0	27%	0
BUF R. Dahlin	2.3	1	0.63	2	16%	0
VAN E. Pettersson	2.1	3	0.97	1	32%	1
VAN J. DeBrusk	2.1	2	0.68	0	30%	0
BUF D. Cozens	2.0	3	0.55	0	20%	0
BUF J. Peterka	2.0	4	0.57	2	21%	1
VAN J. Miller	2.0	4	1.02	1	29%	0
BUF A. Tuch	2.0	2	0.70	0	24%	0
VAN B. Boeser	1.9	8	0.79	1	31%	0
VAN K. Sherwood	1.9	2	0.53	0	23%	0
BUF J.Kulich	1.7	3	0.27	3	15%	1
VAN P. Suter	1.7	1	0.48	0	22%	0
BUF J. Quinn	1.7	1	0.52	0	19%	0
VAN F. Hronek	1.5	4	0.55	0	9%	0
BUF O. Power	1.3	1	0.38	0	8%	0
BUF Z. Benson	1.3	0	0.40	0	15%	0
VAN M. Sasson	1.2	0	0.32	0	12%	0
VAN D. Heinen	1.2	1	0.46	0	19%	0
VAN N. Hoglander	1.2	0	0.34	0	17%	0
VAN T. Blueger	1.1	1	0.39	0	11%	0
BUF B. Byram	1.1	1	0.40	0	13%	0
VAN M. Friedman	1.1	1	0.14	0	4%	0
VAN P. Giuseppe	1.0	1	0.26	1	11%	1
BUF M. Samuelsson	0.9	0	0.17	0	4%	0
VAN C. Soucy	0.9	2	0.23	1	7%	0
BUF H. Jokiharju	0.9	1	0.16	0	4%	0
BUF P. Krebs	0.9	3	0.30	0	9%	0
BUF B. Malenstyn	0.8	1	0.20	0	7%	0
BUF S. Lafferty	0.7	0	0.19	0	9%	0
BUF C. Clifton	0.7	0	0.17	0	4%	0
VAN D. Forbort	0.7	1	0.19	0	5%	0
BUF T. Kozak	0.7	0	0.19	0	10%	0
VAN V. Desharnais	0.6	0	0.14	0	2%	0
BUF D. Gilbert	0.3	0	0.11	0	3%	0

Shots on goal: 23 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.