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Game Recap
BUF1
VGK3
VGK beat BUF 3-1, with the chances close: 2.62 expected goals to 2.47. VGK outshot BUF 33 to 24. J. Eichel led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). J. Eichel had 7 shots on goal against our projection of 3.3. A. Hill stopped 23 of 24.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| VGK | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
- 1st 4:53VGKT. Laczynski0.31 xG
- 1st 12:23VGKM. Stone0.23 xG
- 3rd 7:44VGKJ. Eichel0.14 xG
- 3rd 17:42BUFJ. ZuckerPP0.13 xG
Team Stats
BUFVGK
24Shots on goal33
2.47Expected goals2.62
62Shot attempts54
195v5 shots on goal32
1/3Power play0/2
17Hits19
10Blocked shots17
4Penalty minutes4
22Giveaways15
5Takeaways6
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
BUF 2.47 xGVGK 2.62 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
BUF Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Zucker | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 21:44 | 3:44 |
| J. Peterka | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 17:31 | 3:38 |
| T. Thompson | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 20:42 | 3:31 |
| D. Cozens | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 2 | 19:25 | 0:27 |
| A. Tuch | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 16:56 | 1:32 |
| J. Quinn | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:04 | 3:46 |
| J.Kulich | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:37 | 0:35 |
| P. Krebs | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 12:55 | 0:00 |
| Z. Benson | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 12:24 | 0:29 |
| R. McLeod | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:17 | 0:00 |
| N. Aube-Kubel | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 10:26 | 0:00 |
| B. Malenstyn | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:16 | 0:00 |
| R. Dahlin | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 0 | 25:28 | 3:38 |
| B. Byram | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 24:16 | 0:00 |
| O. Power | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 23:44 | 0:35 |
| M. Samuelsson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 19:55 | 0:00 |
| C. Clifton | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:01 | 0:00 |
| D. Gilbert | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 8:38 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Reimer | 33 | 30 | 3 | .909 | 57:41 | Loss |
| U. Luukkonen | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
VGK Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Eichel | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 21:08 | 3:01 |
| T. Pearson | LW | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 15:43 | 1:09 |
| M. Stone | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 18:35 | 2:51 |
| B. Howden | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 13:49 | 0:00 |
| T. Laczynski | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 11:08 | 0:00 |
| W. Karlsson | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20:24 | 1:21 |
| T. Hertl | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 20:08 | 2:39 |
| P. Dorofeyev | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:11 | 2:38 |
| K. Kolesar | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | +1 | 2 | 13:06 | 0:00 |
| A. Holtz | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:20 | 1:22 |
| C. Schwindt | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8:24 | 0:00 |
| J. Rondbjerg | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7:45 | 0:00 |
| N. Hanifin | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5 | +2 | 0 | 23:16 | 1:35 |
| Z. Whitecloud | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 13:39 | 0:00 |
| A. Pietrangelo | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 4 | +1 | 0 | 25:37 | 0:59 |
| B. McNabb | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 20:15 | 0:00 |
| S. Theodore | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 18:16 | 2:25 |
| N. Hague | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 16:03 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Hill | 24 | 23 | 1 | .958 | 60:00 | Win |
| I. Samsonov | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | BUF 2.8, VGK 3.6 | BUF 1, VGK 3 |
| Total goals | 6.4 | 4 |
| Shots on goal | BUF 26.6, VGK 31.6 | BUF 24, VGK 33 |
| Win chance | VGK 63% | VGK won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VGK J. Eichel | 3.3 | 7 | 1.20 | 2 | 33% | 1 |
| BUF T. Thompson | 2.8 | 5 | 0.82 | 0 | 34% | 0 |
| VGK P. Dorofeyev | 2.4 | 5 | 0.58 | 0 | 27% | 0 |
| BUF R. Dahlin | 2.3 | 3 | 0.60 | 1 | 13% | 0 |
| VGK W. Karlsson | 2.2 | 3 | 0.75 | 0 | 26% | 0 |
| BUF J. Zucker | 2.2 | 3 | 0.60 | 1 | 24% | 1 |
| BUF A. Tuch | 2.1 | 1 | 0.68 | 0 | 25% | 0 |
| BUF D. Cozens | 2.0 | 2 | 0.52 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| VGK T. Hertl | 2.0 | 0 | 0.65 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| VGK M. Stone | 2.0 | 1 | 1.04 | 1 | 29% | 1 |
| BUF J. Peterka | 1.9 | 2 | 0.51 | 1 | 20% | 0 |
| BUF J.Kulich | 1.9 | 0 | 0.31 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| VGK A. Pietrangelo | 1.9 | 4 | 0.58 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| VGK N. Hanifin | 1.8 | 2 | 0.58 | 1 | 13% | 0 |
| VGK S. Theodore | 1.7 | 2 | 0.69 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| BUF J. Quinn | 1.7 | 2 | 0.49 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| BUF O. Power | 1.4 | 1 | 0.38 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| VGK B. Howden | 1.4 | 3 | 0.45 | 1 | 21% | 0 |
| VGK T. Pearson | 1.4 | 2 | 0.39 | 2 | 15% | 0 |
| VGK K. Kolesar | 1.3 | 1 | 0.43 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| BUF Z. Benson | 1.3 | 2 | 0.35 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| VGK N. Hague | 1.2 | 0 | 0.19 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| BUF B. Byram | 1.2 | 0 | 0.44 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| VGK B. McNabb | 1.2 | 1 | 0.28 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| VGK A. Holtz | 1.1 | 0 | 0.27 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| BUF M. Samuelsson | 1.1 | 0 | 0.19 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| BUF R. McLeod | 1.0 | 0 | 0.33 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| VGK J. Rondbjerg | 1.0 | 1 | 0.17 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| BUF B. Malenstyn | 1.0 | 1 | 0.22 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| VGK Z. Whitecloud | 0.9 | 0 | 0.22 | 1 | 7% | 0 |
| BUF N. Aube-Kubel | 0.9 | 1 | 0.19 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| BUF P. Krebs | 0.8 | 0 | 0.26 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| BUF C. Clifton | 0.8 | 1 | 0.18 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| VGK C. Schwindt | 0.7 | 0 | 0.20 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| VGK T. Laczynski | 0.6 | 1 | 0.13 | 1 | 8% | 1 |
| BUF D. Gilbert | 0.4 | 0 | 0.13 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 23 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.