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Game Recap
BUF8
WSH5
BUF beat WSH 8-5, and the chances backed it up: 3.89 expected goals to 3.03. A. Tuch led the way with 3 points (2 G, 1 A). T. Thompson had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 2.8. J. Reimer stopped 24 of 29.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 1 | 3 | 4 | 8 |
| WSH | 1 | 1 | 3 | 5 |
- 1st 10:06WSHJ. Chychrun0.13 xG
- 1st 12:49BUFT. ThompsonPP0.49 xG
- 2nd 2:14BUFR. McLeod0.19 xG
- 2nd 2:46WSHJ. Chychrun0.05 xG
- 2nd 5:17BUFA. Tuch0.09 xG
- 2nd 11:52BUFS. Lafferty0.09 xG
- 3rd 0:37WSHA. ProtasSH0.31 xG
- 3rd 1:28BUFT. ThompsonPP0.15 xG
- 3rd 5:52BUFJ. Quinn0.20 xG
- 3rd 9:11WSHA. Ovechkin0.08 xG
- 3rd 14:03WSHP. DuboisPP0.11 xG
- 3rd 15:34BUFA. Tuch0.03 xG
- 3rd 19:36BUFP. KrebsEN0.89 xG
Team Stats
BUFWSH
23Shots on goal29
3.89Expected goals3.03
46Shot attempts71
155v5 shots on goal23
2/5Power play1/2
16Hits21
19Blocked shots12
6Penalty minutes12
7Giveaways13
7Takeaways3
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
BUF 3.89 xGWSH 3.03 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
BUF Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Tuch | RW | 2 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17:57 | 6:00 |
| J. Quinn | RW | 1 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 16:39 | 2:12 |
| J. Peterka | RW | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 19:27 | 6:04 |
| T. Thompson | C | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17:43 | 6:04 |
| J. Zucker | LW | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 16:18 | 6:04 |
| R. McLeod | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | +2 | 2 | 17:27 | 2:12 |
| S. Lafferty | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:46 | 0:00 |
| P. Krebs | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 12:08 | 0:00 |
| Z. Benson | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 15:58 | 2:16 |
| J.Kulich | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 15:20 | 2:12 |
| T. Kozak | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 12:25 | 0:00 |
| B. Malenstyn | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 11:14 | 0:00 |
| C. Clifton | D | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 6 | +1 | 0 | 19:05 | 0:00 |
| M. Samuelsson | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 18:20 | 0:00 |
| O. Power | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 18:20 | 2:33 |
| R. Dahlin | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 22:18 | 5:43 |
| B. Byram | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 20:46 | 0:00 |
| J. Bernard-Docker | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | +1 | 0 | 12:55 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Reimer | 29 | 24 | 5 | .828 | 59:49 | Win |
| U. Luukkonen | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
WSH Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Ovechkin | LW | 1 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 16:22 | 3:05 |
| D. Strome | C | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | -3 | 0 | 17:21 | 2:15 |
| T. Wilson | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 20:50 | 2:15 |
| P. Dubois | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 6 | 18:23 | 2:16 |
| A. Protas | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | -3 | 0 | 15:14 | 0:00 |
| C. McMichael | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 14:20 | 0:50 |
| L. Eller | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13:18 | 0:00 |
| A. Beauvillier | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 13:17 | 0:02 |
| N. Dowd | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 12:58 | 0:00 |
| B. Duhaime | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 12:36 | 0:00 |
| A. Mangiapane | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 10:57 | 0:47 |
| T. Raddysh | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 10:00 | 0:00 |
| J. Chychrun | D | 2 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 1 | -3 | 0 | 21:09 | 0:47 |
| M. Fehérváry | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 20:06 | 0:00 |
| R. Sandin | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 16:46 | 0:50 |
| T. van Riemsdyk | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 15:37 | 0:00 |
| J. Carlson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 26:12 | 2:18 |
| M. Roy | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | -2 | 0 | 17:56 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| L. Thompson | 22 | 15 | 7 | .682 | 58:22 | Loss |
| C. Lindgren | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Storylines That Played Out
As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | BUF 2.8, WSH 3.9 | BUF 8, WSH 5 |
| Total goals | 6.7 | 13 |
| Shots on goal | BUF 25.4, WSH 29.1 | BUF 23, WSH 29 |
| Win chance | WSH 66% | BUF won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH A. Ovechkin | 3.3 | 3 | 1.04 | 3 | 41% | 1 |
| BUF T. Thompson | 2.8 | 6 | 0.78 | 2 | 34% | 2 |
| WSH J. Chychrun | 2.4 | 4 | 0.62 | 2 | 18% | 2 |
| BUF R. Dahlin | 2.3 | 1 | 0.62 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| BUF J. Peterka | 2.2 | 2 | 0.65 | 2 | 24% | 0 |
| BUF A. Tuch | 2.1 | 2 | 0.65 | 3 | 26% | 2 |
| WSH T. Wilson | 2.0 | 2 | 0.82 | 1 | 32% | 0 |
| WSH J. Carlson | 1.9 | 2 | 0.68 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| WSH P. Dubois | 1.9 | 2 | 0.89 | 1 | 27% | 1 |
| BUF J.Kulich | 1.9 | 0 | 0.36 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| WSH C. McMichael | 1.8 | 2 | 0.65 | 0 | 25% | 0 |
| WSH A. Protas | 1.8 | 3 | 0.80 | 1 | 23% | 1 |
| WSH A. Beauvillier | 1.8 | 0 | 0.40 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| BUF J. Zucker | 1.8 | 1 | 0.51 | 2 | 20% | 0 |
| WSH D. Strome | 1.7 | 4 | 0.92 | 2 | 28% | 0 |
| BUF J. Quinn | 1.5 | 3 | 0.44 | 3 | 17% | 1 |
| BUF Z. Benson | 1.4 | 1 | 0.36 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| BUF R. McLeod | 1.4 | 1 | 0.54 | 1 | 19% | 1 |
| WSH M. Roy | 1.3 | 1 | 0.41 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| BUF O. Power | 1.3 | 0 | 0.33 | 1 | 6% | 0 |
| WSH L. Eller | 1.2 | 0 | 0.33 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| WSH A. Mangiapane | 1.2 | 1 | 0.45 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| WSH T. Raddysh | 1.1 | 2 | 0.34 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| BUF B. Byram | 1.1 | 0 | 0.39 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| WSH R. Sandin | 1.0 | 1 | 0.42 | 1 | 7% | 0 |
| WSH B. Duhaime | 1.0 | 0 | 0.27 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| BUF C. Clifton | 1.0 | 2 | 0.20 | 2 | 4% | 0 |
| WSH T. Riemsdyk | 1.0 | 0 | 0.30 | 1 | 4% | 0 |
| WSH N. Dowd | 0.9 | 0 | 0.40 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| BUF P. Krebs | 0.9 | 2 | 0.27 | 1 | 9% | 1 |
| WSH M. Fehérváry | 0.9 | 2 | 0.33 | 1 | 8% | 0 |
| BUF M. Samuelsson | 0.9 | 0 | 0.17 | 1 | 4% | 0 |
| BUF B. Malenstyn | 0.8 | 1 | 0.15 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| BUF S. Lafferty | 0.7 | 1 | 0.15 | 1 | 8% | 1 |
| BUF T. Kozak | 0.6 | 0 | 0.24 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| BUF J. Bernard-Docker | 0.6 | 0 | 0.15 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 22 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.