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Game Recap
CAR4
ANA1
CAR beat ANA 4-1, and the chances backed it up: 4.33 expected goals to 2.51. CAR outshot ANA 32 to 24. S. Jarvis led the way with 3 points (2 G, 1 A). S. Jarvis had 7 shots on goal against our projection of 2.7. F. Andersen stopped 23 of 24.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 |
| ANA | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
- 1st 14:54CARS. Jarvis0.35 xG
- 2nd 10:22CARS. JarvisPP0.11 xG
- 2nd 11:32ANAL. Carlsson0.08 xG
- 3rd 2:38CARA. Nikishin0.14 xG
- 3rd 15:48CARS. Aho0.64 xG
Team Stats
CARANA
32Shots on goal24
4.33Expected goals2.51
61Shot attempts52
285v5 shots on goal20
1/3Power play0/4
19Hits31
16Blocked shots16
12Penalty minutes8
21Giveaways15
4Takeaways1
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
CAR 4.33 xGANA 2.51 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
CAR Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Jarvis | RW | 2 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 0 | 0 | +3 | 0 | 16:19 | 2:49 |
| S. Aho | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 2 | 16:38 | 2:48 |
| J. Blake | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 14:55 | 2:48 |
| J. Staal | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:46 | 0:00 |
| J. Martinook | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 17:40 | 0:00 |
| L. Stankoven | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 16:08 | 2:58 |
| T. Hall | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15:16 | 2:59 |
| A. Svechnikov | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 13:23 | 2:58 |
| W. Carrier | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12:51 | 0:00 |
| N. Ehlers | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +3 | 0 | 12:45 | 2:38 |
| E. Robinson | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 11:07 | 0:00 |
| M. Jankowski | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 2 | 9:26 | 0:00 |
| S. Gostisbehere | D | 0 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | +2 | 0 | 16:40 | 2:56 |
| A. Nikishin | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 16:37 | 0:00 |
| S. Walker | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 23:22 | 2:52 |
| K. Miller | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 2 | 21:55 | 3:05 |
| J. Chatfield | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | +1 | 2 | 20:29 | 0:00 |
| M. Reilly | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 18:43 | 0:04 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| F. Andersen | 24 | 23 | 1 | .958 | 60:00 | Win |
| B. Bussi | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
ANA Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| L. Carlsson | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 17:35 | 4:07 |
| A. Killorn | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 16:59 | 3:18 |
| M. McTavish | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 4 | 18:43 | 3:04 |
| C. Gauthier | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 18:20 | 3:28 |
| B. Sennecke | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 17:59 | 2:43 |
| C. Kreider | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 17:20 | 4:25 |
| M. Granlund | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 16:48 | 4:22 |
| T. Terry | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 16:29 | 4:36 |
| N. Nesterenko | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:52 | 0:21 |
| F. Vatrano | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 11:38 | 0:35 |
| R. Poehling | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 10:24 | 0:16 |
| R. Johnston | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 7:24 | 0:00 |
| D. Helleson | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 20:46 | 0:44 |
| J. LaCombe | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 1 | -2 | 2 | 22:18 | 4:28 |
| J. Trouba | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 19:23 | 0:00 |
| O. Zellweger | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19:01 | 3:33 |
| R. Gudas | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 3 | -1 | 2 | 16:52 | 0:00 |
| P. Mintyukov | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:51 | 0:00 |
Lines at 5-on-5
CAR
Line 1J. Staal13:49J. Martinook14:11W. Carrier12:51
Line 2T. Hall12:17L. Stankoven13:02J. Blake11:59
Line 4M. Jankowski8:11E. Robinson9:45A. Svechnikov10:25
Pair 2M. Reilly14:45J. Chatfield16:50
Pair 3S. Gostisbehere12:42A. Nikishin14:51
ANA
Line 1C. Gauthier14:52B. Sennecke15:16M. McTavish14:45
Line 2A. Killorn11:44C. Kreider12:33L. Carlsson11:27
Line 3R. Poehling9:19N. Nesterenko10:42R. Johnston7:24
Line 4M. Granlund9:25T. Terry8:45F. Vatrano10:34
Pair 1J. Trouba16:19O. Zellweger14:04
Pair 2P. Mintyukov14:51D. Helleson16:35
Pair 3R. Gudas14:50J. LaCombe15:15
From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | CAR 3.5, ANA 2.7 | CAR 4, ANA 1 |
| Total goals | 6.2 | 5 |
| Shots on goal | CAR 33.2, ANA 24.7 | CAR 32, ANA 24 |
| Win chance | CAR 63% | CAR won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR N. Ehlers | 3.0 | 0 | 0.89 | 0 | 30% | 0 |
| ANA C. Gauthier | 2.8 | 6 | 0.63 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| CAR S. Aho | 2.7 | 2 | 1.03 | 2 | 35% | 1 |
| CAR S. Jarvis | 2.7 | 7 | 0.90 | 3 | 32% | 2 |
| CAR A. Svechnikov | 2.5 | 2 | 0.81 | 0 | 28% | 0 |
| ANA M. McTavish | 2.4 | 0 | 0.70 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| CAR L. Stankoven | 2.3 | 2 | 0.56 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| CAR S. Walker | 2.3 | 0 | 0.32 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| ANA T. Terry | 2.2 | 1 | 0.71 | 0 | 25% | 0 |
| CAR J. Blake | 2.2 | 3 | 0.54 | 1 | 21% | 0 |
| ANA F. Vatrano | 2.1 | 4 | 0.45 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| CAR M. Reilly | 2.0 | 3 | 0.29 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| ANA C. Kreider | 1.9 | 2 | 0.60 | 0 | 30% | 0 |
| CAR S. Gostisbehere | 1.9 | 1 | 0.65 | 3 | 12% | 0 |
| CAR T. Hall | 1.8 | 2 | 0.54 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| ANA L. Carlsson | 1.7 | 5 | 0.64 | 1 | 22% | 1 |
| CAR K. Miller | 1.7 | 2 | 0.45 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| ANA A. Killorn | 1.6 | 1 | 0.47 | 1 | 20% | 0 |
| ANA M. Granlund | 1.5 | 0 | 0.65 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| CAR J. Chatfield | 1.5 | 1 | 0.27 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| ANA O. Zellweger | 1.5 | 1 | 0.26 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| CAR J. Staal | 1.5 | 1 | 0.42 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| ANA J. LaCombe | 1.4 | 2 | 0.51 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| CAR W. Carrier | 1.4 | 0 | 0.27 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| CAR J. Martinook | 1.4 | 2 | 0.46 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| CAR A. Nikishin | 1.4 | 2 | 0.39 | 1 | 4% | 1 |
| CAR E. Robinson | 1.3 | 1 | 0.30 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| ANA N. Nesterenko | 1.1 | 0 | 0.21 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| CAR M. Jankowski | 1.1 | 1 | 0.30 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| ANA J. Trouba | 1.1 | 0 | 0.20 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| ANA D. Helleson | 1.0 | 0 | 0.22 | 1 | 7% | 0 |
| ANA R. Gudas | 1.0 | 1 | 0.21 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| ANA R. Poehling | 1.0 | 0 | 0.33 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| ANA P. Mintyukov | 0.7 | 0 | 0.23 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| ANA R. Johnston | 0.4 | 0 | 0.10 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 21 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.