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Game Recap
CAR4
CBJ5
CBJ beat CAR 5-4 in a shootout, with the chances close: 3.03 expected goals to 2.76. K. Marchenko led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). E. Chinakhov had 7 shots on goal against our projection of 1.9. E. Merzlikins stopped 32 of 36.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | SO | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
| CBJ | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 |
- 1st 2:04CBJD. Fabbro0.12 xG
- 1st 6:41CARJ. Roslovic0.18 xG
- 1st 10:20CBJK. Marchenko0.21 xG
- 2nd 5:40CARJ. Chatfield0.06 xG
- 2nd 7:10CBJD. VoronkovPP0.24 xG
- 2nd 10:39CARS. AhoPP0.12 xG
- 2nd 13:23CARJ. Blake0.15 xG
- 3rd 18:54CBJK. Marchenko0.19 xG
Team Stats
CARCBJ
36Shots on goal32
2.76Expected goals3.03
71Shot attempts54
265v5 shots on goal22
1/4Power play1/5
21Hits16
10Blocked shots19
10Penalty minutes8
19Giveaways23
2Takeaways9
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
CAR 2.76 xGCBJ 3.03 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
CAR Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Aho | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 4 | 24:34 | 3:11 |
| M. Necas | C | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 20:16 | 3:10 |
| J. Roslovic | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 17:47 | 1:02 |
| J. Blake | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 12:44 | 3:14 |
| J. Kotkaniemi | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 9:36 | 0:58 |
| A. Svechnikov | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 21:49 | 3:11 |
| J. Drury | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 16:31 | 1:01 |
| E. Robinson | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 14:28 | 0:00 |
| J. Martinook | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 14:09 | 0:00 |
| J. Staal | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 13:11 | 0:00 |
| W. Carrier | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 10:45 | 0:00 |
| T. Jost | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 7:43 | 0:00 |
| D. Orlov | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 18:58 | 0:00 |
| J. Chatfield | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 18:00 | 0:00 |
| J. Slavin | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 23:53 | 0:03 |
| B. Burns | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 | 23:39 | 1:02 |
| S. Gostisbehere | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 20:46 | 3:10 |
| S. Walker | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 18:01 | 0:58 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P. Kochetkov | 31 | 27 | 4 | .871 | 62:10 | |
| S. Martin | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1.000 | 2:08 | OT loss |
CBJ Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K. Marchenko | RW | 2 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 20:15 | 3:43 |
| K. Johnson | C | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 2 | 19:38 | 4:52 |
| S. Monahan | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 2 | 18:46 | 2:55 |
| D. Voronkov | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 2 | +2 | 0 | 18:01 | 4:19 |
| A. Fantilli | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:24 | 2:48 |
| C. Sillinger | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 17:56 | 2:32 |
| J. Danforth | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 15:09 | 0:00 |
| E. Chinakhov | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 2 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 14:10 | 2:15 |
| K. Labanc | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 12:47 | 2:42 |
| M. Olivier | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -2 | 0 | 12:43 | 0:00 |
| Z. Aston-Reese | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 11:24 | 0:00 |
| S. Kuraly | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:50 | 0:03 |
| Z. Werenski | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 4 | +3 | 0 | 32:17 | 4:48 |
| D. Fabbro | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | +2 | 0 | 25:36 | 0:51 |
| I. Provorov | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 0 | 21:23 | 2:06 |
| D. Severson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 2 | 17:18 | 0:31 |
| J. Christiansen | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:03 | 0:00 |
| J. Harris | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 10:37 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| E. Merzlikins | 36 | 32 | 4 | .889 | 64:32 | Win |
| D. Tarasov | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | CAR 3.8, CBJ 2.7 | CAR 4, CBJ 5 |
| Total goals | 6.5 | 9 |
| Shots on goal | CAR 35.1, CBJ 27.9 | CAR 36, CBJ 32 |
| Win chance | CAR 65% | CBJ won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR M. Necas | 2.9 | 0 | 0.95 | 2 | 30% | 0 |
| CAR A. Svechnikov | 2.7 | 3 | 0.89 | 0 | 29% | 0 |
| CBJ Z. Werenski | 2.6 | 3 | 0.67 | 1 | 13% | 0 |
| CAR S. Aho | 2.6 | 4 | 1.05 | 2 | 36% | 1 |
| CAR B. Burns | 2.3 | 1 | 0.53 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| CBJ K. Marchenko | 2.2 | 4 | 0.55 | 2 | 24% | 2 |
| CBJ S. Monahan | 2.1 | 1 | 0.63 | 1 | 21% | 0 |
| CAR J. Roslovic | 2.0 | 4 | 0.62 | 1 | 22% | 1 |
| CAR J. Blake | 2.0 | 4 | 0.45 | 1 | 21% | 1 |
| CBJ C. Sillinger | 1.9 | 7 | 0.41 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| CBJ A. Fantilli | 1.9 | 1 | 0.46 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| CAR J. Kotkaniemi | 1.9 | 0 | 0.50 | 1 | 18% | 0 |
| CBJ E. Chinakhov | 1.9 | 7 | 0.46 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| CBJ D. Voronkov | 1.9 | 3 | 0.43 | 1 | 20% | 1 |
| CAR J. Martinook | 1.9 | 1 | 0.50 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| CAR S. Gostisbehere | 1.8 | 4 | 0.63 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| CAR D. Orlov | 1.8 | 1 | 0.47 | 1 | 10% | 0 |
| CAR J. Drury | 1.7 | 4 | 0.41 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| CAR S. Walker | 1.7 | 1 | 0.25 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| CAR J. Slavin | 1.6 | 2 | 0.43 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| CBJ J. Danforth | 1.6 | 0 | 0.39 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| CAR J. Staal | 1.5 | 2 | 0.40 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| CAR J. Chatfield | 1.5 | 1 | 0.33 | 1 | 9% | 1 |
| CBJ K. Johnson | 1.5 | 1 | 0.45 | 2 | 16% | 0 |
| CAR W. Carrier | 1.5 | 2 | 0.33 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| CAR E. Robinson | 1.4 | 1 | 0.43 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| CBJ Z. Aston-Reese | 1.3 | 0 | 0.24 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| CBJ D. Severson | 1.3 | 1 | 0.38 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| CBJ I. Provorov | 1.2 | 0 | 0.30 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| CBJ K. Labanc | 1.1 | 1 | 0.30 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| CBJ M. Olivier | 1.1 | 0 | 0.28 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| CBJ D. Fabbro | 1.1 | 1 | 0.20 | 1 | 4% | 1 |
| CAR T. Jost | 1.1 | 1 | 0.23 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| CBJ S. Kuraly | 1.0 | 1 | 0.22 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| CBJ J. Christiansen | 0.8 | 0 | 0.16 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
| CBJ J. Harris | 0.5 | 1 | 0.15 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 19 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.