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Game Recap
CAR3
CBJ4
CBJ beat CAR 4-3 in a shootout despite fewer good chances: 2.08 expected goals to 3.18. S. Monahan led the way with 3 points (0 G, 3 A). Z. Werenski had 11 shots on goal against our projection of 2.5. E. Merzlikins stopped 32 of 35.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | SO | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| CBJ | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
- 1st 4:48CBJK. Marchenko0.14 xG
- 1st 9:59CART. SmithPP0.04 xG
- 1st 15:43CBJK. Marchenko0.01 xG
- 2nd 5:47CARJ. Roslovic0.10 xG
- 2nd 8:18CARJ. Kotkaniemi0.11 xG
- 3rd 4:58CBJD. VoronkovPP0.16 xG
Team Stats
CARCBJ
35Shots on goal28
3.18Expected goals2.08
75Shot attempts50
235v5 shots on goal18
1/4Power play1/3
21Hits14
12Blocked shots20
8Penalty minutes8
14Giveaways15
6Takeaways6
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
CAR 3.18 xGCBJ 2.08 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
CAR Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Aho | C | 0 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 25:33 | 4:03 |
| S. Jarvis | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 21:54 | 4:03 |
| M. Necas | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 20:59 | 4:03 |
| J. Roslovic | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:37 | 1:46 |
| J. Kotkaniemi | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 14:55 | 1:44 |
| E. Robinson | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 7:49 | 0:00 |
| A. Svechnikov | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 19:46 | 3:50 |
| J. Staal | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 16:25 | 0:00 |
| J. Martinook | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 15:12 | 0:00 |
| W. Carrier | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 11:06 | 0:00 |
| J. Blake | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 9:23 | 1:46 |
| T. Jost | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 8:04 | 0:52 |
| T. Smith | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 12:29 | 3:50 |
| J. Slavin | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 26:05 | 0:02 |
| B. Burns | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 24:53 | 1:59 |
| D. Orlov | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 23:37 | 0:00 |
| J. Chatfield | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 20:09 | 0:00 |
| S. Walker | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 14:15 | 0:54 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P. Kochetkov | 28 | 25 | 3 | .893 | 65:00 | OT loss |
| D. Tokarski | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
CBJ Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Monahan | C | 0 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | +2 | 0 | 23:29 | 4:19 |
| K. Marchenko | RW | 2 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 23:10 | 4:19 |
| D. Voronkov | LW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 21:13 | 4:19 |
| C. Sillinger | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 22:18 | 0:43 |
| K. Johnson | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 17:37 | 4:19 |
| Z. Aston-Reese | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 17:14 | 0:17 |
| M. Olivier | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 4 | -1 | 0 | 16:35 | 0:17 |
| A. Fantilli | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 2 | 13:40 | 0:26 |
| S. Kuraly | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:18 | 0:00 |
| J. van Riemsdyk | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 10:37 | 0:26 |
| M. Pyyhtia | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 8:53 | 0:00 |
| Z. Werenski | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 30:07 | 4:19 |
| D. Mateychuk | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13:56 | 0:43 |
| D. Fabbro | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 23:36 | 0:00 |
| I. Provorov | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 22:16 | 0:43 |
| D. Severson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 14:56 | 0:00 |
| J. Johnson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 12:25 | 0:00 |
| J. Christiansen | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4:16 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| E. Merzlikins | 35 | 32 | 3 | .914 | 64:48 | Win |
| D. Tarasov | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | CAR 3.8, CBJ 2.9 | CAR 3, CBJ 4 |
| Total goals | 6.7 | 7 |
| Shots on goal | CAR 33.3, CBJ 27.5 | CAR 35, CBJ 28 |
| Win chance | CAR 62% | CBJ won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR A. Svechnikov | 2.6 | 1 | 0.86 | 0 | 29% | 0 |
| CBJ K. Marchenko | 2.5 | 5 | 0.73 | 2 | 28% | 2 |
| CBJ Z. Werenski | 2.5 | 11 | 0.74 | 1 | 14% | 0 |
| CAR M. Necas | 2.5 | 4 | 0.92 | 1 | 28% | 0 |
| CAR S. Aho | 2.5 | 6 | 1.12 | 2 | 37% | 0 |
| CAR S. Jarvis | 2.3 | 5 | 0.86 | 1 | 30% | 0 |
| CBJ S. Monahan | 2.2 | 1 | 0.72 | 3 | 24% | 0 |
| CAR B. Burns | 2.1 | 2 | 0.48 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| CBJ D. Voronkov | 2.0 | 4 | 0.63 | 2 | 26% | 1 |
| CBJ C. Sillinger | 1.9 | 2 | 0.41 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| CBJ K. Johnson | 1.8 | 1 | 0.59 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| CAR J. Roslovic | 1.7 | 2 | 0.61 | 1 | 21% | 1 |
| CBJ A. Fantilli | 1.7 | 0 | 0.43 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| CAR J. Martinook | 1.7 | 1 | 0.47 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| CAR D. Orlov | 1.7 | 2 | 0.46 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| CAR T. Smith | 1.6 | 2 | 0.36 | 1 | 8% | 1 |
| CAR S. Walker | 1.5 | 2 | 0.25 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| CAR J. Chatfield | 1.5 | 1 | 0.30 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| CAR J. Slavin | 1.5 | 1 | 0.38 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| CAR J. Blake | 1.5 | 0 | 0.37 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| CAR J. Staal | 1.5 | 2 | 0.42 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| CAR J. Kotkaniemi | 1.5 | 1 | 0.44 | 1 | 17% | 1 |
| CAR W. Carrier | 1.4 | 1 | 0.34 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| CBJ J. Riemsdyk | 1.4 | 0 | 0.40 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| CBJ Z. Aston-Reese | 1.3 | 0 | 0.28 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| CBJ M. Olivier | 1.2 | 0 | 0.34 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| CAR T. Jost | 1.2 | 1 | 0.26 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| CAR E. Robinson | 1.2 | 1 | 0.38 | 1 | 15% | 0 |
| CBJ D. Fabbro | 1.1 | 1 | 0.23 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| CBJ D. Severson | 1.1 | 1 | 0.35 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| CBJ S. Kuraly | 1.0 | 0 | 0.25 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| CBJ I. Provorov | 1.0 | 0 | 0.32 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| CBJ M. Pyyhtia | 0.8 | 0 | 0.18 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| CBJ J. Christiansen | 0.6 | 1 | 0.13 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
| CBJ J. Johnson | 0.5 | 0 | 0.09 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 20 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.