Game Recap: CAR 2, DAL 3, October 25, 2025

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Game Recap

CAR2

FinalSat, Oct 25, 2025Every game that night

DAL3

DAL beat CAR 3-2, and the chances backed it up: 3.84 expected goals to 2.58. M. Heiskanen led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). R. Hintz had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 2.1. J. Oettinger stopped 26 of 28.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
CAR	2	0	0	2
DAL	0	2	1	3

1st 4:14CARJ. Blake0.18 xG
1st 19:49CARS. Aho0.11 xG
2nd 1:04DALM. Heiskanen0.04 xG
2nd 5:41DALS. SteelPP0.08 xG
3rd 11:18DALM. HeiskanenPP0.11 xG

Team Stats

CARDAL

28Shots on goal34

2.58Expected goals3.84

81Shot attempts50

225v5 shots on goal24

0/3Power play2/4

29Hits30

9Blocked shots30

8Penalty minutes6

12Giveaways17

3Takeaways3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

CAR 2.58 xGDAL 3.84 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

CAR27 on goal, 2 scored

DAL34 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

CAR Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
S. Aho	C	1	0	1	3	1	0	0	0	22:08	3:05
J. Blake	RW	1	0	1	3	0	0	+1	0	16:44	2:27
N. Ehlers	LW	0	1	1	0	1	0	0	0	16:25	2:42
S. Jarvis	RW	0	0	0	2	4	0	0	2	18:26	2:33
L. Stankoven	C	0	0	0	3	0	1	+1	0	16:24	1:51
A. Svechnikov	RW	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	15:15	2:34
J. Staal	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	14:44	0:00
J. Martinook	LW	0	0	0	0	4	1	0	0	14:12	0:00
T. Hall	LW	0	0	0	2	2	0	+1	4	14:10	1:19
B. Nadeau	LW	0	0	0	1	1	2	0	0	12:39	1:57
M. Jankowski	LW	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	11:16	1:50
J. Kotkaniemi	C	0	0	0	1	2	2	0	0	10:05	0:00
S. Walker	D	0	0	0	3	5	1	0	0	25:46	1:42
A. Nikishin	D	0	0	0	1	3	1	0	0	22:29	0:00
J. Chatfield	D	0	0	0	2	3	0	0	0	21:16	0:00
J. Nystrom	D	0	0	0	1	1	1	+1	2	17:57	0:00
M. Reilly	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	+1	0	15:00	0:00
C. Legault	D	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	9:58	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
B. Bussi	34	31	3	.912	58:08	Loss
F. Andersen	0	0	0	–	0:00

DAL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Rantanen	RW	0	2	2	1	2	3	+1	2	21:03	4:07
W. Johnston	C	0	1	1	5	2	3	0	0	19:49	3:11
S. Steel	C	1	0	1	2	0	1	0	0	18:56	1:59
J. Robertson	LW	0	0	0	5	1	0	-1	0	18:33	3:16
T. Seguin	C	0	0	0	2	1	2	0	0	16:28	2:39
R. Hintz	C	0	0	0	5	1	1	0	0	15:20	1:51
M. Bourque	C	0	0	0	4	2	0	-1	0	14:35	1:08
C. Blackwell	C	0	0	0	1	3	1	0	0	13:37	0:00
R. Faksa	C	0	0	0	0	2	1	-1	0	11:39	0:05
A. Erne	LW	0	0	0	0	6	0	+1	0	11:28	0:00
J. Hryckowian	C	0	0	0	1	2	0	-1	0	8:56	0:36
N. Bastian	RW	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	2	6:24	0:14
M. Heiskanen	D	2	0	2	3	0	3	0	0	24:19	3:27
T. Harley	D	0	1	1	1	1	3	-1	0	25:16	1:57
E. Lindell	D	0	1	1	1	0	6	+1	2	20:50	1:58
I. Lyubushkin	D	0	0	0	1	2	4	0	0	20:23	0:05
L. Bichsel	D	0	0	0	0	3	1	-1	0	14:13	0:00
A. Petrovic	D	0	0	0	1	2	1	-1	0	12:11	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Oettinger	28	26	2	.929	60:00	Win
C. DeSmith	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

CAR

Line 1S. Aho14:31S. Jarvis13:40N. Ehlers13:12

Line 2L. Stankoven12:32J. Blake13:45T. Hall12:51

Line 3J. Staal11:37J. Martinook11:16A. Svechnikov10:57

Line 4M. Jankowski8:15B. Nadeau8:50J. Kotkaniemi9:48

Pair 1J. Chatfield18:29S. Walker18:51

Pair 2J. Nystrom16:34A. Nikishin18:11

Pair 3M. Reilly12:11C. Legault9:45

DAL

Line 1J. Robertson12:51W. Johnston13:09M. Bourque12:28

Line 2M. Rantanen15:17S. Steel13:57R. Hintz12:08

Line 3C. Blackwell11:47A. Erne11:28T. Seguin13:04

Line 4R. Faksa10:30J. Hryckowian7:52N. Bastian6:10

Pair 1T. Harley19:26I. Lyubushkin17:38

Pair 2E. Lindell15:37M. Heiskanen16:24

Pair 3A. Petrovic12:11L. Bichsel13:18

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamLogan Stankoven CAR Faces DAL, his team until Mar 20253 SOG
Old teamMikko Rantanen DAL Faces CAR, his team until Mar 20252 A, 1 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	CAR 3.2, DAL 2.8	CAR 2, DAL 3
Total goals	6.1	5
Shots on goal	CAR 31.8, DAL 24.1	CAR 28, DAL 34
Win chance	CAR 55%	DAL won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
CAR N. Ehlers	2.9	0	0.85	1	28%	0
CAR S. Jarvis	2.8	2	0.91	0	31%	0
DAL J. Robertson	2.8	5	1.02	0	35%	0
CAR S. Aho	2.6	3	0.99	1	33%	1
DAL M. Rantanen	2.5	1	1.09	2	35%	0
CAR S. Walker	2.4	3	0.31	0	9%	0
DAL W. Johnston	2.4	5	0.81	1	32%	0
CAR J. Blake	2.2	3	0.52	1	19%	1
DAL R. Hintz	2.1	5	0.84	0	31%	0
CAR L. Stankoven	2.1	3	0.49	0	18%	0
CAR A. Svechnikov	2.1	1	0.63	0	23%	0
CAR M. Reilly	2.0	1	0.28	0	5%	0
DAL T. Seguin	1.9	2	0.60	0	23%	0
DAL M. Heiskanen	1.8	3	0.58	2	10%	2
CAR T. Hall	1.7	2	0.51	0	18%	0
CAR J. Chatfield	1.5	2	0.25	0	8%	0
CAR J. Staal	1.4	0	0.39	0	15%	0
DAL M. Bourque	1.3	4	0.34	0	15%	0
CAR J. Martinook	1.3	0	0.42	0	14%	0
DAL T. Harley	1.3	1	0.45	1	10%	0
CAR A. Nikishin	1.3	1	0.33	0	5%	0
CAR J. Kotkaniemi	1.1	1	0.31	0	11%	0
DAL S. Steel	1.1	2	0.36	1	11%	1
DAL C. Blackwell	1.0	1	0.22	0	10%	0
CAR M. Jankowski	1.0	2	0.26	0	13%	0
DAL E. Lindell	1.0	1	0.26	1	6%	0
DAL R. Faksa	0.9	0	0.25	0	9%	0
DAL J. Hryckowian	0.7	1	0.15	0	7%	0
DAL L. Bichsel	0.7	0	0.16	0	4%	0
DAL A. Petrovic	0.7	1	0.08	0	3%	0
DAL A. Erne	0.6	0	0.17	0	7%	0
DAL N. Bastian	0.6	1	0.13	0	7%	0
DAL I. Lyubushkin	0.5	1	0.14	0	1%	0

Shots on goal: 22 of 33 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.