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Game Recap
CAR2
NJD4
NJD beat CAR 4-2, and the chances backed it up: 2.81 expected goals to 1.85. J. Bratt led the way with 3 points (2 G, 1 A). J. Markstrom stopped 20 of 22.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
| NJD | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 |
- 1st 8:43CARJ. Roslovic0.20 xG
- 1st 14:45NJDJ. Bratt0.23 xG
- 2nd 0:46NJDS. NoesenPP0.16 xG
- 3rd 0:12CARA. SvechnikovPP0.05 xG
- 3rd 10:35NJDD. Hamilton0.06 xG
- 3rd 14:05NJDJ. BrattPP0.11 xG
Team Stats
CARNJD
22Shots on goal21
1.85Expected goals2.81
64Shot attempts61
175v5 shots on goal16
1/2Power play2/3
12Hits25
11Blocked shots25
6Penalty minutes4
15Giveaways12
2Takeaways1
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
CAR 1.85 xGNJD 2.81 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
CAR Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Necas | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20:40 | 1:56 |
| J. Roslovic | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19:59 | 0:33 |
| A. Svechnikov | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:17 | 1:56 |
| E. Robinson | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 12:16 | 0:00 |
| S. Aho | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 21:25 | 1:56 |
| J. Martinook | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 17:03 | 0:00 |
| J. Kotkaniemi | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 16:36 | 0:33 |
| J. Blake | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 2 | 14:58 | 1:56 |
| J. Drury | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 12:17 | 0:33 |
| J. Staal | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 11:53 | 0:00 |
| W. Carrier | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:21 | 0:00 |
| T. Jost | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 7:34 | 0:00 |
| D. Orlov | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 20:04 | 0:00 |
| S. Gostisbehere | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 2 | 18:40 | 1:56 |
| B. Burns | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 23:18 | 0:33 |
| J. Slavin | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 21:12 | 0:00 |
| J. Chatfield | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 18:57 | 0:00 |
| S. Walker | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 15:59 | 0:33 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Martin | 21 | 17 | 4 | .810 | 56:21 | Loss |
| P. Kochetkov | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
NJD Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Hughes | C | 0 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 21:44 | 4:06 |
| J. Bratt | LW | 2 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 18:43 | 4:13 |
| S. Noesen | RW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 18:19 | 4:03 |
| D. Mercer | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 17:34 | 0:09 |
| O. Palat | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 15:47 | 0:00 |
| T. Tatar | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 10:50 | 0:00 |
| N. Hischier | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 21:38 | 4:04 |
| T. Meier | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 16:19 | 0:07 |
| E. Haula | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 14:05 | 0:10 |
| P. Cotter | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 9:28 | 0:00 |
| J. Dowling | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8:43 | 0:00 |
| S. Bowers | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 8:35 | 0:00 |
| D. Hamilton | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 2 | +2 | 2 | 19:04 | 3:48 |
| B. Pesce | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 6 | -1 | 0 | 22:29 | 0:00 |
| J. Siegenthaler | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 20:12 | 0:00 |
| J. Kovacevic | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 19:31 | 0:00 |
| L. Hughes | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 18:19 | 0:25 |
| B. Dillon | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 16:32 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Markstrom | 22 | 20 | 2 | .909 | 59:39 | Win |
| J. Allen | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Storylines That Played Out
As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | CAR 3.3, NJD 2.9 | CAR 2, NJD 4 |
| Total goals | 6.2 | 6 |
| Shots on goal | CAR 31.4, NJD 27.1 | CAR 22, NJD 21 |
| Win chance | CAR 55% | NJD won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD J. Hughes | 3.4 | 1 | 1.01 | 3 | 34% | 0 |
| NJD T. Meier | 2.7 | 2 | 0.66 | 0 | 29% | 0 |
| CAR M. Necas | 2.5 | 2 | 0.75 | 1 | 25% | 0 |
| CAR A. Svechnikov | 2.5 | 3 | 0.75 | 1 | 26% | 1 |
| NJD N. Hischier | 2.5 | 1 | 0.88 | 0 | 29% | 0 |
| NJD J. Bratt | 2.5 | 4 | 0.83 | 3 | 26% | 2 |
| CAR S. Aho | 2.3 | 2 | 0.85 | 0 | 31% | 0 |
| NJD D. Hamilton | 2.2 | 2 | 0.54 | 1 | 12% | 1 |
| CAR B. Burns | 2.0 | 2 | 0.45 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| CAR J. Blake | 1.8 | 1 | 0.38 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| NJD S. Noesen | 1.7 | 2 | 0.58 | 2 | 22% | 1 |
| CAR J. Roslovic | 1.7 | 2 | 0.47 | 1 | 18% | 1 |
| NJD D. Mercer | 1.7 | 1 | 0.51 | 1 | 23% | 0 |
| CAR J. Kotkaniemi | 1.7 | 1 | 0.40 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| CAR J. Martinook | 1.7 | 0 | 0.40 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| CAR S. Gostisbehere | 1.6 | 1 | 0.54 | 1 | 10% | 0 |
| CAR J. Drury | 1.6 | 0 | 0.35 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| NJD E. Haula | 1.6 | 1 | 0.41 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| CAR D. Orlov | 1.5 | 2 | 0.39 | 1 | 8% | 0 |
| CAR S. Walker | 1.5 | 1 | 0.22 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| CAR J. Slavin | 1.5 | 0 | 0.37 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| CAR J. Staal | 1.4 | 3 | 0.35 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| CAR W. Carrier | 1.4 | 0 | 0.28 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| CAR J. Chatfield | 1.3 | 1 | 0.28 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| CAR E. Robinson | 1.3 | 0 | 0.35 | 1 | 14% | 0 |
| NJD B. Pesce | 1.3 | 1 | 0.20 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| NJD P. Cotter | 1.3 | 1 | 0.38 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| NJD O. Palat | 1.2 | 2 | 0.39 | 1 | 16% | 0 |
| NJD L. Hughes | 1.2 | 0 | 0.39 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| CAR T. Jost | 1.0 | 1 | 0.20 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| NJD S. Bowers | 0.9 | 0 | 0.13 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| NJD J. Siegenthaler | 0.9 | 1 | 0.19 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| NJD J. Kovacevic | 0.9 | 0 | 0.22 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| NJD T. Tatar | 0.9 | 2 | 0.26 | 1 | 11% | 0 |
| NJD B. Dillon | 0.7 | 0 | 0.21 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| NJD J. Dowling | 0.6 | 0 | 0.16 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 25 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.4 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.