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Game Recap
CAR5
OTT7
OTT beat CAR 7-5, and the chances backed it up: 4.46 expected goals to 2.98. D. Batherson led the way with 3 points (2 G, 1 A). J. Kotkaniemi had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 1.4. L. Ullmark stopped 28 of 33.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 2 | 3 | 0 | 5 |
| OTT | 3 | 0 | 4 | 7 |
- 1st 11:55OTTA. Gaudette0.09 xG
- 1st 16:35OTTD. CozensPP0.09 xG
- 1st 17:22OTTS. Pinto0.24 xG
- 1st 17:33CARJ. Kotkaniemi0.08 xG
- 1st 19:18CARS. Brind'Amour0.15 xG
- 2nd 0:50CARA. SvechnikovPP0.09 xG
- 2nd 4:05CARJ. Roslovic0.03 xG
- 2nd 6:32CART. Jost0.30 xG
- 3rd 4:17OTTA. Gaudette0.02 xG
- 3rd 10:01OTTD. Batherson0.16 xG
- 3rd 13:38OTTD. BathersonPP0.15 xG
- 3rd 18:48OTTT. StützlePP0.25 xG
Team Stats
CAROTT
33Shots on goal32
2.98Expected goals4.46
57Shot attempts63
245v5 shots on goal22
1/3Power play3/9
17Hits22
14Blocked shots14
28Penalty minutes6
14Giveaways10
0Takeaways4
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
CAR 2.98 xGOTT 4.46 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
CAR Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Svechnikov | RW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 16:44 | 3:11 |
| T. Hall | LW | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 14:26 | 0:35 |
| S. Brind'Amour | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 17:42 | 0:00 |
| L. Stankoven | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 16:09 | 3:09 |
| J. Kotkaniemi | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:51 | 0:42 |
| J. Roslovic | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 14:49 | 2:59 |
| W. Carrier | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 14:36 | 0:00 |
| T. Jost | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 13:48 | 3:02 |
| E. Robinson | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:43 | 0:00 |
| M. Jankowski | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 17:20 | 0:00 |
| B. Nadeau | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 9:57 | 0:45 |
| S. Gostisbehere | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 12 | 19:54 | 3:09 |
| S. Morrow | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 17:26 | 0:00 |
| D. Orlov | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 23:14 | 0:00 |
| D. Fensore | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 20:55 | 0:35 |
| S. Walker | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 20:46 | 0:33 |
| R. Stillman | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 14:51 | 0:00 |
| B. Burns | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:24 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| F. Andersen | 32 | 25 | 7 | .781 | 60:00 | Loss |
| P. Kochetkov | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
OTT Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D. Batherson | RW | 2 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 19:51 | 7:35 |
| D. Cozens | C | 1 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:00 | 6:05 |
| T. Stützle | C | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 17:53 | 8:15 |
| A. Gaudette | RW | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 17:00 | 2:40 |
| S. Pinto | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16:37 | 1:21 |
| F. Zetterlund | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 2 | +2 | 0 | 16:00 | 2:46 |
| R. Greig | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:48 | 1:57 |
| M. Amadio | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:31 | 1:21 |
| N. Cousins | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 11:59 | 1:21 |
| D. Perron | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 13:56 | 1:58 |
| C. Giroux | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 13:07 | 3:46 |
| B. Tkachuk | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 10:37 | 4:48 |
| J. Sanderson | D | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 28:21 | 8:37 |
| T. Kleven | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 20:08 | 3:16 |
| N. Jensen | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | -2 | 0 | 19:48 | 1:21 |
| N. Matinpalo | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 15:36 | 0:00 |
| T. Hamonic | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 13:34 | 0:00 |
| D. Gilbert | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 13:02 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| L. Ullmark | 33 | 28 | 5 | .848 | 59:22 | Win |
| A. Forsberg | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | CAR 3.1, OTT 3.0 | CAR 5, OTT 7 |
| Total goals | 6.1 | 12 |
| Shots on goal | CAR 30.3, OTT 26.6 | CAR 33, OTT 32 |
| Win chance | CAR 52% | OTT won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT B. Tkachuk | 3.6 | 3 | 0.72 | 0 | 30% | 0 |
| CAR L. Stankoven | 2.3 | 3 | 0.43 | 1 | 17% | 0 |
| OTT D. Batherson | 2.3 | 4 | 0.73 | 3 | 25% | 2 |
| OTT D. Cozens | 2.2 | 3 | 0.58 | 3 | 21% | 1 |
| CAR A. Svechnikov | 2.1 | 3 | 0.58 | 2 | 22% | 1 |
| OTT F. Zetterlund | 2.0 | 4 | 0.44 | 1 | 19% | 0 |
| CAR T. Hall | 2.0 | 1 | 0.53 | 2 | 21% | 0 |
| OTT J. Sanderson | 2.0 | 2 | 0.52 | 2 | 9% | 0 |
| OTT T. Stützle | 1.9 | 4 | 0.84 | 3 | 25% | 1 |
| OTT S. Pinto | 1.9 | 2 | 0.53 | 1 | 22% | 1 |
| CAR S. Walker | 1.9 | 0 | 0.22 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| CAR B. Burns | 1.8 | 0 | 0.35 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| OTT D. Perron | 1.7 | 1 | 0.54 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| OTT R. Greig | 1.7 | 1 | 0.48 | 1 | 19% | 0 |
| CAR S. Morrow | 1.6 | 1 | 0.27 | 1 | 5% | 0 |
| CAR S. Gostisbehere | 1.6 | 1 | 0.52 | 1 | 9% | 0 |
| CAR J. Roslovic | 1.6 | 3 | 0.44 | 1 | 17% | 1 |
| CAR D. Orlov | 1.6 | 2 | 0.36 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| CAR E. Robinson | 1.5 | 2 | 0.35 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| OTT C. Giroux | 1.5 | 2 | 0.59 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| CAR W. Carrier | 1.4 | 3 | 0.28 | 1 | 15% | 0 |
| CAR J. Kotkaniemi | 1.4 | 6 | 0.35 | 1 | 14% | 1 |
| OTT M. Amadio | 1.3 | 0 | 0.41 | 1 | 19% | 0 |
| CAR T. Jost | 1.3 | 4 | 0.25 | 1 | 10% | 1 |
| OTT N. Cousins | 1.2 | 1 | 0.26 | 1 | 10% | 0 |
| CAR M. Jankowski | 1.2 | 1 | 0.30 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| OTT A. Gaudette | 1.1 | 2 | 0.26 | 2 | 14% | 2 |
| OTT T. Hamonic | 1.1 | 1 | 0.17 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| OTT T. Kleven | 1.0 | 1 | 0.15 | 1 | 4% | 0 |
| OTT N. Matinpalo | 0.9 | 0 | 0.12 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| OTT N. Jensen | 0.8 | 0 | 0.23 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| OTT D. Gilbert | 0.4 | 1 | 0.19 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
| CAR R. Stillman | 0.4 | 0 | 0.09 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 22 of 33 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.