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Game Recap
CAR4
OTT1
CAR beat OTT 4-1 despite fewer good chances: 2.19 expected goals to 2.81. OTT outshot CAR 37 to 19. S. Jarvis led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). T. Stützle had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 2.1. B. Bussi stopped 36 of 37.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 3 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| OTT | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
- 1st 3:53CARW. Carrier0.17 xG
- 1st 5:36CARS. Jarvis0.12 xG
- 1st 18:43CART. Hall0.05 xG
- 2nd 9:29CARA. SvechnikovPP0.10 xG
- 2nd 12:11OTTT. Stützle0.11 xG
Team Stats
CAROTT
19Shots on goal37
2.19Expected goals2.81
39Shot attempts61
175v5 shots on goal27
1/4Power play0/4
12Hits34
13Blocked shots14
18Penalty minutes8
15Giveaways13
4Takeaways8
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
CAR 2.19 xGOTT 2.81 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
CAR Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Jarvis | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 18:42 | 3:28 |
| N. Ehlers | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 17:44 | 5:01 |
| A. Svechnikov | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 15:57 | 3:26 |
| M. Jankowski | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 13:23 | 0:46 |
| J. Blake | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 12:41 | 2:36 |
| W. Carrier | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 11:23 | 0:07 |
| T. Hall | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 12 | 9:59 | 1:59 |
| S. Aho | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 18:35 | 3:27 |
| J. Martinook | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 17:49 | 0:00 |
| J. Staal | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 17:48 | 0:23 |
| L. Stankoven | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 11:55 | 2:26 |
| J. Kotkaniemi | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 11:31 | 0:47 |
| J. Chatfield | D | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 24:20 | 0:15 |
| A. Nikishin | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 16:30 | 3:20 |
| J. Slavin | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | +1 | 0 | 23:36 | 0:14 |
| K. Miller | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 22:37 | 2:35 |
| S. Walker | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 17:50 | 0:00 |
| J. Nystrom | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 9:40 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B. Bussi | 37 | 36 | 1 | .973 | 60:00 | Win |
| F. Andersen | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
OTT Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T. Stützle | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 20:58 | 5:38 |
| C. Giroux | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 17:17 | 2:11 |
| D. Batherson | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19:23 | 5:15 |
| D. Cozens | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 19:21 | 5:07 |
| B. Tkachuk | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:58 | 5:07 |
| R. Greig | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 16:22 | 1:48 |
| S. Pinto | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 16:09 | 2:45 |
| M. Amadio | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 13:35 | 0:08 |
| S. Halliday | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:52 | 2:45 |
| F. Zetterlund | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | -3 | 0 | 11:29 | 2:26 |
| L. Eller | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:42 | 0:11 |
| N. Cousins | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 10:31 | 0:04 |
| J. Sanderson | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 23:55 | 5:16 |
| T. Kleven | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20:54 | 0:12 |
| T. Chabot | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 19:11 | 2:39 |
| A. Zub | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:17 | 0:00 |
| N. Matinpalo | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:26 | 0:00 |
| J. Spence | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 0 | 13:42 | 0:06 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Reimer | 19 | 15 | 4 | .789 | 56:08 | Loss |
| H. Shepard | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Lines at 5-on-5
CAR
Line 1J. Staal12:38J. Martinook13:03N. Ehlers12:13
Line 2S. Aho10:41S. Jarvis10:54A. Svechnikov12:31
Line 3M. Jankowski11:03J. Kotkaniemi9:52W. Carrier10:16
Line 4L. Stankoven9:29J. Blake10:05T. Hall8:00
Pair 1J. Slavin16:53J. Chatfield17:59
Pair 3A. Nikishin11:20J. Nystrom9:32
OTT
Line 1B. Tkachuk12:06D. Cozens12:26R. Greig11:36
Line 2D. Batherson12:21T. Stützle11:34C. Giroux12:16
Line 3S. Pinto10:18M. Amadio10:48N. Cousins10:17
Line 4L. Eller9:31S. Halliday8:36F. Zetterlund8:39
Pair 1N. Matinpalo14:42T. Kleven16:41
Pair 2J. Sanderson15:28A. Zub13:20
From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | CAR 3.2, OTT 2.9 | CAR 4, OTT 1 |
| Total goals | 6.2 | 5 |
| Shots on goal | CAR 28.0, OTT 25.1 | CAR 19, OTT 37 |
| Win chance | CAR 54% | CAR won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT B. Tkachuk | 3.2 | 2 | 0.75 | 0 | 28% | 0 |
| CAR S. Jarvis | 2.7 | 1 | 0.88 | 2 | 32% | 1 |
| CAR N. Ehlers | 2.5 | 1 | 0.86 | 1 | 28% | 0 |
| CAR A. Svechnikov | 2.5 | 2 | 0.83 | 1 | 28% | 1 |
| CAR S. Aho | 2.2 | 0 | 0.98 | 0 | 32% | 0 |
| OTT T. Stützle | 2.1 | 5 | 0.92 | 1 | 27% | 1 |
| OTT D. Cozens | 1.9 | 3 | 0.58 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| OTT D. Batherson | 1.9 | 3 | 0.73 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| CAR S. Walker | 1.9 | 2 | 0.26 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| OTT S. Pinto | 1.8 | 4 | 0.56 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| OTT J. Sanderson | 1.7 | 3 | 0.58 | 1 | 11% | 0 |
| CAR L. Stankoven | 1.7 | 3 | 0.45 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| CAR J. Blake | 1.7 | 0 | 0.47 | 1 | 20% | 0 |
| CAR T. Hall | 1.6 | 1 | 0.50 | 1 | 19% | 1 |
| OTT R. Greig | 1.5 | 4 | 0.44 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| CAR J. Staal | 1.5 | 1 | 0.48 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| OTT T. Chabot | 1.5 | 3 | 0.45 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| CAR K. Miller | 1.4 | 0 | 0.45 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| OTT C. Giroux | 1.4 | 2 | 0.62 | 1 | 19% | 0 |
| OTT F. Zetterlund | 1.4 | 2 | 0.33 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| CAR J. Martinook | 1.3 | 1 | 0.41 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| CAR J. Slavin | 1.3 | 0 | 0.33 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| CAR A. Nikishin | 1.3 | 1 | 0.37 | 1 | 9% | 0 |
| CAR J. Chatfield | 1.3 | 1 | 0.25 | 2 | 8% | 0 |
| CAR W. Carrier | 1.2 | 1 | 0.25 | 1 | 13% | 1 |
| OTT M. Amadio | 1.1 | 1 | 0.39 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| CAR J. Kotkaniemi | 1.1 | 2 | 0.30 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| OTT S. Halliday | 1.0 | 0 | 0.32 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| OTT J. Spence | 0.9 | 1 | 0.26 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| OTT T. Kleven | 0.9 | 0 | 0.14 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| CAR M. Jankowski | 0.9 | 1 | 0.26 | 1 | 12% | 0 |
| CAR J. Nystrom | 0.9 | 1 | 0.21 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| OTT A. Zub | 0.8 | 2 | 0.24 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| OTT N. Cousins | 0.8 | 1 | 0.25 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| OTT L. Eller | 0.8 | 1 | 0.21 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| OTT N. Matinpalo | 0.7 | 0 | 0.12 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 20 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.