Game Recap: CAR 3, OTT 6, April 5, 2026

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Game Recap

CAR3

FinalSun, Apr 5, 2026Every game that night

OTT6

OTT beat CAR 6-3, and the chances backed it up: 5.25 expected goals to 2.30. B. Tkachuk led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). L. Ullmark stopped 25 of 28.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
CAR	2	0	1	3
OTT	2	1	3	6

1st 5:22CARL. StankovenPP0.20 xG
1st 7:17OTTD. CozensPP0.38 xG
1st 8:51OTTT. Stützle0.16 xG
1st 19:40CARA. Svechnikov0.44 xG
2nd 8:33OTTB. Tkachuk0.08 xG
3rd 2:50OTTS. PintoPP0.13 xG
3rd 6:32OTTB. Tkachuk0.10 xG
3rd 17:30CART. Hall0.11 xG
3rd 19:03OTTC. GirouxEN0.69 xG

Team Stats

CAROTT

28Shots on goal31

2.30Expected goals5.25

64Shot attempts54

235v5 shots on goal22

1/2Power play2/2

30Hits28

11Blocked shots22

4Penalty minutes4

16Giveaways18

3Takeaways5

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

CAR 2.30 xGOTT 5.25 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

CAR28 on goal, 3 scored

OTT29 on goal, 6 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

CAR Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
J. Blake	RW	0	2	2	0	0	0	-1	0	15:14	2:07
N. Ehlers	LW	0	1	1	3	0	1	0	0	17:53	2:18
A. Svechnikov	RW	1	0	1	4	2	0	0	4	16:12	1:12
T. Hall	LW	1	0	1	3	1	0	-1	0	15:09	2:07
L. Stankoven	C	1	0	1	3	1	0	-1	0	14:44	2:07
S. Jarvis	C	0	0	0	2	1	1	-1	0	16:57	1:12
S. Aho	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	16:27	1:12
M. Jankowski	LW	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	16:06	1:01
E. Robinson	LW	0	0	0	1	1	0	-1	0	14:44	0:00
J. Kotkaniemi	C	0	0	0	0	3	1	-1	0	14:04	0:00
N. Deslauriers	LW	0	0	0	0	9	0	-1	0	13:46	0:00
W. Carrier	LW	0	0	0	0	4	2	0	0	12:07	0:00
S. Walker	D	0	1	1	3	1	1	-2	0	19:05	0:00
J. Slavin	D	0	0	0	1	0	2	0	0	21:23	0:00
J. Chatfield	D	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	0	20:37	0:00
K. Miller	D	0	0	0	1	2	2	-2	0	19:33	0:00
A. Nikishin	D	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	17:31	2:07
S. Gostisbehere	D	0	0	0	2	1	0	+1	0	17:10	1:12

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
F. Andersen	30	25	5	.833	58:32	Loss
B. Bussi	0	0	0	–	0:00

OTT Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
S. Pinto	C	1	1	2	3	2	3	0	0	17:10	0:37
T. Stützle	C	1	1	2	2	1	1	+1	0	16:56	2:12
R. Greig	C	0	2	2	3	4	2	+2	0	16:30	0:00
D. Cozens	C	1	1	2	4	0	0	+2	0	16:16	2:08
B. Tkachuk	LW	2	0	2	5	5	1	+2	0	15:35	2:11
C. Giroux	RW	1	0	1	1	1	0	+1	0	14:01	0:38
D. Batherson	RW	0	1	1	2	1	0	0	0	13:43	2:09
F. Zetterlund	LW	0	1	1	0	4	0	0	0	12:43	0:35
M. Amadio	RW	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	16:51	0:00
N. Cousins	C	0	0	0	3	6	2	-1	2	14:40	0:00
W. Foegele	LW	0	0	0	1	1	2	0	0	12:45	0:34
L. Eller	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	-1	0	12:09	0:00
J. Sanderson	D	0	1	1	2	0	2	+2	0	26:47	2:18
A. Zub	D	0	1	1	2	0	1	+2	0	23:08	0:00
J. Spence	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	2	19:57	0:28
C. Crotty	D	0	0	0	1	0	3	0	0	16:20	0:00
N. Matinpalo	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	15:59	0:00
L. Thomson	D	0	0	0	1	0	2	0	0	15:11	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
L. Ullmark	28	25	3	.893	60:00	Win
J. Reimer	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

CAR

Line 1N. Ehlers14:25M. Jankowski13:35W. Carrier12:07

Line 2N. Deslauriers13:46J. Kotkaniemi14:04E. Robinson13:14

Line 3T. Hall12:16J. Blake11:51L. Stankoven12:19

Line 4S. Aho12:11S. Jarvis12:42A. Svechnikov13:59

Pair 1J. Slavin18:58J. Chatfield18:13

Pair 2S. Walker18:25K. Miller18:53

Pair 3S. Gostisbehere14:49A. Nikishin14:53

OTT

Line 1N. Cousins14:21M. Amadio14:39S. Pinto13:37

Line 2D. Cozens13:26R. Greig14:27B. Tkachuk12:42

Line 3W. Foegele12:11F. Zetterlund12:08L. Eller12:09

Line 4C. Giroux11:56T. Stützle13:06D. Batherson11:34

Pair 1J. Sanderson20:30A. Zub19:11

Pair 2C. Crotty15:12L. Thomson15:11

Pair 3J. Spence19:29N. Matinpalo14:51

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	CAR 3.2, OTT 3.0	CAR 3, OTT 6
Total goals	6.2	9
Shots on goal	CAR 27.3, OTT 25.0	CAR 28, OTT 31
Win chance	CAR 53%	OTT won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
OTT B. Tkachuk	3.3	5	0.82	2	30%	2
CAR S. Jarvis	2.4	2	0.74	0	28%	0
CAR N. Ehlers	2.3	3	0.78	1	27%	0
OTT D. Cozens	2.1	4	0.63	2	23%	1
CAR S. Aho	2.1	1	0.83	0	29%	0
OTT T. Stützle	2.0	2	0.93	2	28%	1
CAR A. Svechnikov	2.0	4	0.68	1	25%	1
OTT S. Pinto	1.9	3	0.60	2	24%	1
CAR L. Stankoven	1.9	3	0.47	1	19%	1
CAR J. Blake	1.9	0	0.51	2	21%	0
OTT D. Batherson	1.8	2	0.74	1	25%	0
CAR S. Walker	1.8	3	0.29	1	8%	0
CAR T. Hall	1.6	3	0.54	1	19%	1
OTT J. Sanderson	1.6	2	0.55	1	10%	0
CAR S. Gostisbehere	1.6	2	0.59	0	11%	0
OTT J. Spence	1.5	1	0.50	0	9%	0
OTT R. Greig	1.4	3	0.40	2	15%	0
CAR J. Slavin	1.4	1	0.30	0	7%	0
OTT W. Foegele	1.3	1	0.33	0	16%	0
CAR K. Miller	1.3	1	0.41	0	8%	0
OTT F. Zetterlund	1.3	0	0.31	1	13%	0
OTT C. Giroux	1.3	1	0.53	1	17%	1
CAR A. Nikishin	1.3	0	0.34	0	10%	0
CAR J. Chatfield	1.3	2	0.25	0	7%	0
OTT M. Amadio	1.2	0	0.45	0	19%	0
OTT N. Cousins	1.0	3	0.29	0	11%	0
CAR E. Robinson	1.0	1	0.24	0	11%	0
CAR W. Carrier	1.0	0	0.19	0	10%	0
OTT L. Eller	0.9	0	0.21	0	9%	0
OTT A. Zub	0.9	2	0.29	1	5%	0
CAR J. Kotkaniemi	0.9	0	0.24	0	9%	0
OTT N. Matinpalo	0.8	0	0.12	0	2%	0
CAR M. Jankowski	0.8	2	0.24	0	12%	0
OTT L. Thomson	0.8	1	0.22	0	2%	0
CAR N. Deslauriers	0.7	0	0.09	0	5%	0

Shots on goal: 19 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.