Game Recap: CAR 2, PHI 3 (SO), April 13, 2026

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Game Recap

CAR2

Final/SOMon, Apr 13, 2026Every game that night

PHI3

PHI beat CAR 3-2 in a shootout, and the chances backed it up: 3.70 expected goals to 2.36. N. Ehlers led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). N. Ehlers had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 2.1. D. Vladar stopped 24 of 26.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	SO	T
CAR	2	0	0	0	2
PHI	0	2	0	1	3

1st 8:41CARB. Nadeau0.19 xG
1st 15:30CARN. EhlersPP0.09 xG
2nd 7:57PHIM. Michkov0.12 xG
2nd 10:30PHIT. ZegrasPP0.19 xG

Team Stats

CARPHI

26Shots on goal23

2.36Expected goals3.70

71Shot attempts46

215v5 shots on goal18

1/1Power play1/2

27Hits32

14Blocked shots23

4Penalty minutes2

18Giveaways15

7Takeaways5

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

CAR 2.36 xGPHI 3.70 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

CAR26 on goal, 2 scored

PHI22 on goal, 2 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

CAR Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
N. Ehlers	LW	1	1	2	6	0	0	+1	2	16:25	0:25
J. Blake	RW	0	1	1	3	0	1	0	0	20:26	0:25
L. Stankoven	C	0	1	1	3	0	0	0	0	20:19	0:25
B. Nadeau	LW	1	0	1	3	2	0	+1	0	16:16	0:00
T. Hall	LW	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	18:43	0:25
J. Kotkaniemi	C	0	0	0	1	2	1	+1	0	15:21	0:00
E. Robinson	LW	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	15:01	0:00
S. Brind'Amour	C	0	0	0	0	2	0	-1	0	14:25	0:00
J. Martinook	LW	0	0	0	1	1	1	-1	0	14:05	0:00
M. Jankowski	LW	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	13:16	0:00
W. Carrier	LW	0	0	0	2	3	1	0	0	11:21	0:00
N. Deslauriers	LW	0	0	0	1	11	0	0	0	10:23	0:00
S. Walker	D	0	1	1	1	0	1	+1	2	24:13	0:00
K. Miller	D	0	0	0	1	2	2	-1	0	27:44	0:00
A. Nikishin	D	0	0	0	0	4	3	0	0	23:38	0:25
J. Chatfield	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	-1	0	23:11	0:00
C. Legault	D	0	0	0	0	0	2	+1	0	14:22	0:00
M. Reilly	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	12:13	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
B. Bussi	23	21	2	.913	64:51	OT loss
F. Andersen	0	0	0	–	0:00

PHI Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
T. Zegras	C	1	0	1	4	2	1	0	0	21:32	1:58
T. Foerster	RW	0	1	1	0	3	0	0	0	18:36	1:44
P. Martone	RW	0	1	1	0	3	0	0	0	17:16	1:33
M. Michkov	RW	1	0	1	4	1	0	+1	0	15:33	1:49
N. Cates	LW	0	1	1	3	1	0	+1	0	15:22	1:58
D. Barkey	C	0	1	1	3	1	0	+1	0	15:00	0:00
T. Konecny	RW	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	19:35	2:03
O. Tippett	RW	0	0	0	4	3	1	0	0	18:50	2:02
C. Dvorak	C	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	2	17:32	1:49
S. Couturier	C	0	0	0	1	3	1	-1	0	12:13	0:00
L. Glendening	C	0	0	0	0	1	1	-1	0	11:00	0:00
G. Hathaway	RW	0	0	0	0	4	1	-1	0	10:28	0:00
J. Drysdale	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	+1	0	25:45	1:51
T. Sanheim	D	0	0	0	1	1	6	-1	0	24:18	0:12
C. York	D	0	0	0	0	1	3	+1	0	23:54	0:12
R. Ristolainen	D	0	0	0	0	2	3	-1	0	23:14	1:44
N. Seeler	D	0	0	0	1	2	3	0	0	12:50	0:00
E. Andrae	D	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	11:37	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
D. Vladar	26	24	2	.923	65:00	Win
S. Ersson	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

CAR

Line 1L. Stankoven17:07J. Blake17:39T. Hall17:01

Line 2J. Kotkaniemi15:21B. Nadeau15:19N. Ehlers14:13

Line 3J. Martinook12:17S. Brind'Amour12:38E. Robinson13:02

Line 4M. Jankowski10:33W. Carrier11:21N. Deslauriers10:23

Pair 1J. Chatfield21:48K. Miller22:27

Pair 2S. Walker21:26A. Nikishin20:37

Pair 3M. Reilly12:13C. Legault12:50

PHI

Line 1T. Zegras18:07T. Foerster16:04O. Tippett15:05

Line 2T. Konecny15:47P. Martone15:36C. Dvorak13:52

Line 3D. Barkey14:22M. Michkov12:43N. Cates12:28

Line 4S. Couturier11:37L. Glendening10:35G. Hathaway10:28

Pair 1C. York22:36J. Drysdale21:20

Pair 2R. Ristolainen21:21T. Sanheim21:47

Pair 3N. Seeler12:50E. Andrae11:37

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	CAR 3.4, PHI 2.8	CAR 2, PHI 3
Total goals	6.2	5
Shots on goal	CAR 28.2, PHI 22.9	CAR 26, PHI 23
Win chance	CAR 60%	PHI won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
PHI P. Martone	2.6	0	0.63	1	19%	0
PHI O. Tippett	2.3	4	0.61	0	25%	0
CAR N. Ehlers	2.1	6	0.76	2	25%	1
CAR L. Stankoven	2.0	3	0.54	1	22%	0
CAR S. Walker	1.9	1	0.34	1	9%	0
CAR J. Blake	1.8	3	0.58	1	22%	0
PHI T. Konecny	1.8	1	0.76	0	25%	0
CAR T. Hall	1.7	1	0.61	0	21%	0
PHI T. Foerster	1.7	0	0.53	1	25%	0
PHI M. Michkov	1.7	4	0.61	1	20%	1
PHI C. Dvorak	1.6	0	0.60	0	19%	0
PHI T. Zegras	1.6	4	0.68	1	22%	1
PHI S. Couturier	1.4	1	0.44	0	14%	0
CAR A. Nikishin	1.4	0	0.38	0	10%	0
CAR B. Nadeau	1.3	3	0.29	1	14%	1
PHI N. Cates	1.3	3	0.52	1	17%	0
CAR K. Miller	1.3	1	0.39	0	8%	0
CAR J. Martinook	1.3	1	0.41	0	15%	0
PHI R. Ristolainen	1.3	0	0.34	0	5%	0
CAR J. Chatfield	1.2	1	0.23	0	7%	0
CAR M. Reilly	1.2	0	0.18	0	4%	0
CAR E. Robinson	1.1	1	0.29	0	13%	0
PHI T. Sanheim	1.0	1	0.38	0	9%	0
PHI J. Drysdale	1.0	1	0.33	0	7%	0
CAR J. Kotkaniemi	1.0	1	0.28	0	11%	0
CAR W. Carrier	1.0	2	0.22	0	11%	0
PHI C. York	0.9	0	0.27	0	5%	0
CAR C. Legault	0.9	0	0.19	0	5%	0
CAR M. Jankowski	0.9	1	0.28	0	14%	0
PHI D. Barkey	0.8	3	0.35	1	12%	0
PHI N. Seeler	0.8	1	0.15	0	3%	0
PHI L. Glendening	0.8	0	0.16	0	8%	0
PHI G. Hathaway	0.7	0	0.19	0	10%	0
CAR N. Deslauriers	0.7	1	0.10	0	6%	0
PHI E. Andrae	0.5	0	0.14	0	2%	0

Shots on goal: 19 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.