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Game Recap
CAR3
Final/OTSat, Oct 3, 2026Every game that night
PHI2

CAR beat PHI 3-2 in overtime, and the chances backed it up: 4.39 expected goals to 2.75. CAR outshot PHI 40 to 18. S. Aho led the way with 3 points (2 G, 1 A). S. Aho had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 2.2. P. Kochetkov stopped 16 of 18.

Scoring

1st2nd3rdOTT
CAR10113
PHI11002
  1. 1st 0:10CARS. Aho0.06 xG
  2. 1st 8:03PHIO. Tippett0.08 xG
  3. 2nd 7:20PHIM. Michkov0.20 xG
  4. 3rd 4:59CARS. AhoPP0.18 xG
  5. OT 2:51CARS. GostisbeherePP0.15 xG

Team Stats

CARPHI
40Shots on goal18
4.39Expected goals2.75
79Shot attempts43
315v5 shots on goal15
2/4Power play0/4
13Hits29
14Blocked shots17
8Penalty minutes8
20Giveaways14
4Takeaways3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

CAR 4.39 xGPHI 2.75 xGGoal

012341st2nd3rdOTCAR goal, 0:10PHI goal, 8:03PHI goal, 7:20CAR goal, 4:59CAR goal, 2:51

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

CAR40 on goal, 3 scored
PHI18 on goal, 2 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

CAR Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
S. AhoC2136000220:304:51
A. SvechnikovRW0224100017:504:43
J. BlakeRW0112010018:435:00
N. EhlersLW0111000013:383:07
W. CarrierLW0112410012:490:00
L. StankovenC0004000017:100:44
J. StaalC0001100016:351:04
J. MartinookLW0003110015:160:03
T. HallLW0002100014:300:57
M. JankowskiLW000000-1012:010:00
E. RobinsonLW000210-1011:440:00
J. KotkaniemiC000110-1211:190:08
S. GostisbehereD101401-1215:394:46
J. SlavinD000104+1024:470:10
S. WalkerD000403-1024:100:32
K. MillerD000031-1023:170:48
J. ChatfieldD000201+1222:500:11
M. ReillyD000101-1010:360:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
P. Kochetkov18162.88962:51Win
B. Bussi000–0:00

PHI Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
T. ZegrasC011000+1022:536:19
O. TippettRW101331+1217:471:14
T. KonecnyRW0111110216:084:56
M. MichkovRW1012010216:086:34
C. DvorakC0111200014:290:34
T. FoersterRW0003300018:435:55
S. CouturierC0000000015:580:03
N. AcciariC0001420015:530:00
C. GrundstromRW000151+1013:450:00
A. BumpLW0003200013:270:13
P. MartoneRW0001200011:021:39
N. CatesLW000000009:130:00
T. SanheimD0001210027:050:37
J. DrysdaleD000011+1024:336:21
C. YorkD000022+1022:100:00
N. SeelerD0000040218:070:00
R. RistolainenD0000120014:260:02
D.JiricekD0001110013:100:49
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
J. Woll40373.92562:48OT loss
D. Vladar000–0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

CAR

Line 1L. Stankoven13:54J. Blake13:43T. Hall12:43
Line 2S. Aho12:36A. Svechnikov12:17W. Carrier12:46
Line 3J. Staal11:20J. Martinook11:33N. Ehlers10:31
Line 4J. Kotkaniemi11:11E. Robinson11:18M. Jankowski10:11
Pair 1J. Slavin18:46J. Chatfield18:01
Pair 2K. Miller19:14S. Walker19:27
Pair 3M. Reilly10:23S. Gostisbehere10:41

PHI

Line 1O. Tippett15:30T. Zegras16:06C. Grundstrom13:43
Line 2S. Couturier12:15A. Bump13:13N. Acciari12:26
Line 3T. Foerster11:20P. Martone9:23N. Cates9:05
Line 4T. Konecny10:44M. Michkov9:22C. Dvorak10:52
Pair 1J. Drysdale17:55C. York17:30
Pair 2T. Sanheim20:37R. Ristolainen12:31
Pair 3N. Seeler15:42D.Jiricek12:21

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Prop Results

11 of 23 overs hit (48%).

PlayerLineOverUnderSOGResult
CAR A. Svechnikov2.5+106-1354Over
CAR J. Blake2.5+135-1602Under
CAR L. Stankoven2.5+140-1654Over
CAR N. Ehlers2.5+105-1351Under
PHI O. Tippett2.5+135-1763Over
PHI P. Martone2.5+140-1701Under
CAR S. Aho2.5+120-1506Over
PHI C. Dvorak1.5+100-1351Under
PHI C. Grundstrom1.5+150-2001Under
CAR E. Robinson1.5+100-1352Over
CAR J. Martinook1.5-105-1303Over
CAR J. Slavin1.5+125-1651Under
CAR J. Staal1.5-115-1201Under
CAR K. Miller1.5+130-1800Under
PHI M. Michkov1.5-140+1152Over
PHI N. Cates1.5+125-1700Under
CAR S. Gostisbehere1.5-110-1204Over
CAR S. Walker1.5-120+1004Over
PHI T. Foerster1.5+105-1283Over
CAR T. Hall1.5-154+1202Over
PHI T. Konecny1.5-105-1101Under
PHI T. Sanheim1.5+170-2251Under
PHI T. Zegras1.5+105-1300Under

Each player's main line (the one most books posted) at the last price before puck drop, the best price on each side there, and what he did.

How We Did

We projectedIt finished
ScoreCAR 3.3, PHI 2.7CAR 3, PHI 2
Total goals6.05
Shots on goalCAR 28.8, PHI 22.8CAR 40, PHI 18
Win chanceCAR 59%CAR won

Players

PlayerSOG projectedSOGPoints projectedPointsGoal chanceGoals
CAR N. Ehlers2.410.81127%0
PHI O. Tippett2.430.54124%1
CAR L. Stankoven2.340.58024%0
CAR A. Svechnikov2.340.68225%0
CAR S. Aho2.260.79328%2
PHI P. Martone2.110.54018%0
CAR J. Blake2.120.63122%0
CAR T. Hall1.920.56019%0
PHI T. Foerster1.830.48025%0
PHI T. Konecny1.710.68123%0
CAR S. Walker1.740.2808%0
PHI S. Couturier1.700.46015%0
PHI M. Michkov1.620.50118%1
PHI T. Zegras1.600.64121%0
PHI C. Dvorak1.610.50117%0
CAR J. Staal1.510.43018%0
CAR S. Gostisbehere1.440.56111%1
PHI N. Cates1.400.47016%0
CAR J. Slavin1.410.2806%0
CAR J. Martinook1.430.32013%0
PHI N. Acciari1.310.28013%0
PHI C. Grundstrom1.310.23013%0
PHI R. Ristolainen1.300.3005%0
CAR K. Miller1.300.4208%0
CAR J. Chatfield1.320.2507%0
CAR M. Reilly1.310.2004%0
CAR W. Carrier1.320.28112%0
PHI A. Bump1.230.37017%0
PHI T. Sanheim1.210.39010%0
CAR J. Kotkaniemi1.110.29011%0
CAR E. Robinson1.120.26012%0
PHI C. York1.100.2806%0
PHI J. Drysdale1.100.3108%0
CAR M. Jankowski0.800.25012%0
PHI N. Seeler0.800.1404%0
PHI D.Jiricek0.610.1202%0

Shots on goal: 19 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.