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Game Recap
CAR4
FinalSun, Oct 11, 2026Every game that night
PHI1

CAR beat PHI 4-1, and the chances backed it up: 3.08 expected goals to 1.59. CAR outshot PHI 30 to 19. S. Aho led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). P. Kochetkov stopped 18 of 19.

Scoring

1st2nd3rdT
CAR0314
PHI0101
  1. 2nd 10:16CARA. Svechnikov0.05 xG
  2. 2nd 13:45CARS. Gostisbehere0.14 xG
  3. 2nd 15:26PHIC. Dvorak0.08 xG
  4. 2nd 16:54CARS. Aho0.14 xG
  5. 3rd 15:09CARM. Jankowski0.25 xG

Team Stats

CARPHI
30Shots on goal19
3.08Expected goals1.59
59Shot attempts40
245v5 shots on goal17
0/4Power play0/3
13Hits20
7Blocked shots14
6Penalty minutes8
16Giveaways18
7Takeaways6

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

CAR 3.08 xGPHI 1.59 xGGoal

00.511.522.533.51st2nd3rdCAR goal, 10:16CAR goal, 13:45PHI goal, 15:26CAR goal, 16:54CAR goal, 15:09

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

CAR30 on goal, 4 scored
PHI18 on goal, 1 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

CAR Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
S. AhoC112202+2018:245:26
A. SvechnikovRW112120+3216:265:47
W. CarrierLW022010+2412:120:00
M. JankowskiLW1012010015:481:23
J. MartinookLW0111000014:170:00
J. BlakeRW0004000020:256:12
L. StankovenC000300+1017:442:12
N. EhlersLW0003000017:416:15
T. HallLW000300+1015:261:51
E. RobinsonLW0001100012:310:22
J. KotkaniemiC0002110010:430:22
N. DeslauriersLW000130008:450:22
S. WalkerD011100+1022:441:26
J. ChatfieldD011000+1021:010:22
S. GostisbehereD101301+3017:225:53
K. MillerD000110-1022:061:45
J. SlavinD0002010019:110:00
M. ReillyD000041+2011:140:22
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
P. Kochetkov19181.94760:00Win
B. Bussi000–0:00

PHI Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
C. DvorakC1013100017:232:10
D. BarkeyC0110200015:193:17
T. FoersterRW0001220217:363:19
S. CouturierC000111-1016:370:27
T. ZegrasC000100-3016:053:06
P. MartoneRW0000100015:123:21
N. AcciariC0000210015:060:00
O. TippettRW000320-1015:052:41
N. CatesLW0002200013:270:00
M. MichkovRW000000-2012:542:51
C. GrundstromRW0001100012:110:00
M. BuntingLW000100-2010:252:26
N. SeelerD0111240022:060:00
J. DrysdaleD0001020024:213:12
T. SanheimD000101-3221:430:21
O. BonkD000210-3416:280:13
S. BenoitD0000320015:580:00
D.JiricekD0001010014:142:36
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
J. Woll30264.86759:50Loss
D. Vladar000–0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

CAR

Line 1T. Hall13:35J. Blake14:06L. Stankoven13:14
Line 2M. Jankowski11:36J. Martinook12:07N. Ehlers11:26
Line 3S. Aho10:42A. Svechnikov10:39W. Carrier12:02
Line 4E. Robinson9:42J. Kotkaniemi10:11N. Deslauriers8:23
Pair 1S. Walker18:59K. Miller18:00
Pair 2J. Chatfield16:55J. Slavin15:28
Pair 3M. Reilly10:44S. Gostisbehere11:21

PHI

Line 1T. Foerster12:41C. Dvorak11:05D. Barkey11:52
Line 2N. Acciari11:23C. Grundstrom12:11N. Cates11:13
Line 3O. Tippett12:24P. Martone11:51S. Couturier11:57
Line 4T. Zegras12:46M. Michkov9:53M. Bunting7:47
Pair 1N. Seeler17:00J. Drysdale17:55
Pair 2T. Sanheim18:18O. Bonk16:15
Pair 3S. Benoit11:11D.Jiricek11:28

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Prop Results

6 of 15 overs hit (40%).

PlayerLineOverUnderSOGResult
CAR A. Svechnikov2.5-111+1001Under
CAR J. Blake2.5+122-1504Over
CAR L. Stankoven2.5+140-1653Over
CAR N. Ehlers2.5+135-1803Over
PHI O. Tippett2.5+120-1303Over
CAR S. Aho2.5-105-1102Under
PHI J. Drysdale1.5+136–1Under
CAR K. Miller1.5+115-1501Under
PHI M. Michkov1.5-140+1150Under
PHI P. Martone1.5-130+1000Under
CAR S. Gostisbehere1.5-120+1003Over
CAR S. Walker1.5-122+1101Under
PHI T. Foerster1.5-145+1151Under
CAR T. Hall1.5-150+1153Over
PHI T. Zegras1.5-110-1201Under

Each player's main line (the one most books posted) at the last price before puck drop, the best price on each side there, and what he did.

How We Did

We projectedIt finished
ScoreCAR 3.2, PHI 2.4CAR 4, PHI 1
Total goals5.65
Shots on goalCAR 30.5, PHI 21.5CAR 30, PHI 19
Win chanceCAR 63%CAR won

Players

PlayerSOG projectedSOGPoints projectedPointsGoal chanceGoals
CAR A. Svechnikov2.310.67225%1
CAR S. Aho2.320.83229%1
PHI O. Tippett2.330.54024%0
CAR L. Stankoven2.330.55023%0
CAR J. Blake2.140.67022%0
CAR N. Ehlers2.030.70024%0
PHI M. Michkov1.900.62022%0
CAR T. Hall1.930.55019%0
PHI T. Foerster1.810.50025%0
CAR S. Walker1.810.3018%0
PHI P. Martone1.700.44016%0
PHI T. Zegras1.610.66022%0
CAR S. Gostisbehere1.630.55111%1
PHI S. Couturier1.510.42014%0
CAR J. Martinook1.510.33113%0
PHI C. Dvorak1.430.47116%1
CAR J. Slavin1.420.2706%0
CAR J. Chatfield1.400.2417%0
CAR K. Miller1.310.4009%0
CAR M. Reilly1.300.2004%0
CAR W. Carrier1.300.28212%0
CAR E. Robinson1.310.29013%0
PHI M. Bunting1.310.34015%0
PHI J. Drysdale1.210.3308%0
PHI T. Sanheim1.110.36010%0
PHI N. Cates1.120.37013%0
PHI N. Acciari1.100.25012%0
CAR J. Kotkaniemi1.120.28011%0
CAR M. Jankowski1.020.31115%1
PHI D. Barkey0.900.34112%0
PHI N. Seeler0.810.1514%0
PHI D.Jiricek0.810.1803%0
PHI S. Benoit0.600.0802%0

Shots on goal: 21 of 33 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.