Game Recap: CAR 1, PIT 5, December 30, 2025

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Game Recap

CAR1

FinalTue, Dec 30, 2025Every game that night

PIT5

PIT beat CAR 5-1, and the chances backed it up: 3.03 expected goals to 2.12. A. Mantha led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). S. Skinner stopped 27 of 28.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
CAR	0	1	0	1
PIT	3	2	0	5

1st 3:46PITS. Crosby0.14 xG
1st 16:07PITJ. Brazeau0.13 xG
1st 17:12PITA. ManthaPP0.31 xG
2nd 15:08PITT. Novak0.04 xG
2nd 18:08PITA. Mantha0.09 xG
2nd 18:25CARM. Jankowski0.15 xG

Team Stats

CARPIT

28Shots on goal28

2.12Expected goals3.03

63Shot attempts61

275v5 shots on goal24

0/0Power play1/2

21Hits15

15Blocked shots19

4Penalty minutes0

21Giveaways15

4Takeaways7

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

CAR 2.12 xGPIT 3.03 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

CAR27 on goal, 1 scored

PIT28 on goal, 5 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

CAR Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Jankowski	LW	1	0	1	2	0	1	0	0	13:29	0:00
E. Robinson	LW	0	0	0	3	3	1	-1	0	18:06	0:00
J. Kotkaniemi	C	0	0	0	3	2	1	-1	0	17:13	0:00
N. Ehlers	LW	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	16:28	0:00
J. Blake	RW	0	0	0	0	0	1	-1	2	15:28	0:00
T. Hall	LW	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	14:53	0:00
W. Carrier	LW	0	0	0	1	6	0	-1	0	14:45	0:00
L. Stankoven	C	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	14:22	0:00
S. Aho	C	0	0	0	2	0	0	-1	0	13:52	0:00
A. Svechnikov	RW	0	0	0	3	1	0	-2	0	13:50	0:00
J. Staal	C	0	0	0	1	1	1	-1	0	12:33	0:00
J. Martinook	LW	0	0	0	0	1	0	-1	0	12:31	0:00
J. Nystrom	D	0	1	1	1	0	2	0	0	17:54	0:00
M. Reilly	D	0	1	1	2	2	1	+1	0	17:47	0:00
A. Nikishin	D	0	0	0	0	2	2	-2	0	22:39	0:00
K. Miller	D	0	0	0	1	1	2	-3	2	21:28	0:00
S. Walker	D	0	0	0	4	0	1	-1	0	20:53	0:00
J. Chatfield	D	0	0	0	1	2	1	-1	0	19:17	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
F. Andersen	28	23	5	.821	60:00	Loss
B. Bussi	0	0	0	–	0:00

PIT Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	TOI	PP TOI
B. Rust	RW	0	2	2	1	0	1	+1	17:04	1:30
T. Novak	C	1	1	2	2	0	1	+1	14:39	0:59
A. Mantha	RW	2	0	2	3	0	0	+2	14:23	1:29
J. Brazeau	RW	1	1	2	3	1	1	+1	13:48	1:00
S. Crosby	C	1	0	1	3	0	2	+2	18:22	1:33
R. Rakell	RW	0	1	1	1	2	0	+1	17:07	1:29
N. Acciari	C	0	0	0	3	0	3	+1	16:28	0:00
C. Dewar	C	0	0	0	2	1	2	0	15:44	0:00
B. Lizotte	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	14:21	0:00
V. Koivunen	RW	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	14:18	1:02
B. Kindel	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	13:38	1:03
R. McGroarty	RW	0	0	0	1	0	2	0	12:16	0:00
E. Karlsson	D	0	2	2	1	0	1	+3	19:40	1:29
B. Kulak	D	0	1	1	0	0	1	+1	21:58	0:00
P. Wotherspoon	D	0	1	1	2	2	0	+2	18:03	0:00
K. Letang	D	0	0	0	2	2	1	0	22:32	1:03
J. St. Ivany	D	0	0	0	0	4	3	0	18:06	0:00
R. Shea	D	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	17:33	0:03

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
S. Skinner	28	27	1	.964	60:00	Win
A. Silovs	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

CAR

Line 1S. Aho13:21E. Robinson17:17A. Svechnikov13:50

Line 2T. Hall14:53M. Jankowski12:46L. Stankoven14:22

Line 3N. Ehlers16:28J. Blake15:28J. Kotkaniemi17:13

Line 4J. Martinook10:52W. Carrier14:45J. Staal11:12

Pair 1A. Nikishin21:11S. Walker19:25

Pair 2J. Chatfield18:34K. Miller20:31

Pair 3M. Reilly17:26J. Nystrom17:46

PIT

Line 1S. Crosby16:49B. Rust15:34R. Rakell15:38

Line 2C. Dewar15:44N. Acciari16:28B. Lizotte14:21

Line 3T. Novak13:40J. Brazeau12:48A. Mantha12:54

Line 4V. Koivunen13:16B. Kindel12:35R. McGroarty12:16

Pair 1K. Letang21:29B. Kulak21:58

Pair 2E. Karlsson18:11P. Wotherspoon18:03

Pair 3R. Shea17:30J. Ivany18:06

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	CAR 3.0, PIT 2.9	CAR 1, PIT 5
Total goals	5.9	6
Shots on goal	CAR 29.3, PIT 25.8	CAR 28, PIT 28
Win chance	CAR 51%	PIT won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
CAR N. Ehlers	2.6	1	0.80	0	27%	0
CAR A. Svechnikov	2.6	3	0.79	0	27%	0
PIT B. Rust	2.5	1	0.86	2	31%	0
PIT S. Crosby	2.4	3	1.07	1	34%	1
CAR S. Aho	2.4	2	0.96	0	33%	0
PIT R. Rakell	2.4	1	0.77	1	28%	0
CAR J. Blake	2.2	0	0.61	0	24%	0
CAR L. Stankoven	2.1	2	0.47	0	18%	0
CAR S. Walker	2.1	4	0.28	0	8%	0
PIT B. Kindel	1.9	0	0.39	0	17%	0
PIT E. Karlsson	1.8	1	0.61	2	12%	0
PIT A. Mantha	1.7	3	0.66	2	24%	2
CAR T. Hall	1.7	1	0.49	0	19%	0
CAR E. Robinson	1.6	3	0.37	0	16%	0
PIT T. Novak	1.6	2	0.53	2	20%	1
CAR A. Nikishin	1.6	0	0.36	0	8%	0
PIT R. McGroarty	1.5	1	0.30	0	13%	0
CAR J. Staal	1.4	1	0.43	0	17%	0
PIT K. Letang	1.4	2	0.39	0	8%	0
CAR M. Reilly	1.3	2	0.18	1	4%	0
CAR K. Miller	1.3	1	0.35	0	7%	0
PIT J. Brazeau	1.3	3	0.44	2	19%	1
PIT C. Dewar	1.3	2	0.29	0	12%	0
CAR J. Chatfield	1.3	1	0.23	0	7%	0
CAR W. Carrier	1.2	1	0.24	0	12%	0
CAR J. Kotkaniemi	1.2	3	0.31	0	12%	0
CAR J. Martinook	1.2	0	0.35	0	13%	0
CAR M. Jankowski	1.1	2	0.27	1	13%	1
PIT B. Lizotte	1.1	1	0.34	0	14%	0
CAR J. Nystrom	1.1	1	0.19	1	3%	0
PIT V. Koivunen	1.0	2	0.23	0	7%	0
PIT B. Kulak	1.0	0	0.19	1	4%	0
PIT N. Acciari	0.9	3	0.21	0	10%	0
PIT P. Wotherspoon	0.8	2	0.21	1	3%	0
PIT J. Ivany	0.8	0	0.13	0	2%	0
PIT R. Shea	0.6	1	0.23	0	4%	0

Shots on goal: 21 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.