Game Recap: CAR 5, PIT 1, March 22, 2026

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Game Recap

CAR5

FinalSun, Mar 22, 2026Every game that night

PIT1

CAR beat PIT 5-1, and the chances backed it up: 6.14 expected goals to 2.50. S. Jarvis led the way with 3 points (1 G, 2 A). A. Svechnikov had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 2.2. F. Andersen stopped 18 of 19.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
CAR	1	3	1	5
PIT	0	0	1	1

1st 0:47CARS. AhoPP0.05 xG
2nd 6:24CARN. EhlersPP0.05 xG
2nd 9:15CARJ. Chatfield0.01 xG
2nd 17:20CARS. JarvisPP0.22 xG
3rd 14:56PITE. Chinakhov0.25 xG
3rd 18:56CARM. JankowskiEN0.92 xG

Team Stats

CARPIT

26Shots on goal19

6.14Expected goals2.50

66Shot attempts49

145v5 shots on goal16

3/5Power play0/2

21Hits29

14Blocked shots12

8Penalty minutes14

12Giveaways17

6Takeaways3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

CAR 6.14 xGPIT 2.50 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

CAR26 on goal, 5 scored

PIT18 on goal, 1 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

CAR Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
S. Jarvis	C	1	2	3	4	0	0	0	0	18:03	4:15
N. Ehlers	LW	1	1	2	4	1	1	0	0	16:15	4:15
S. Aho	C	1	0	1	3	1	0	0	0	19:43	4:16
A. Svechnikov	RW	0	1	1	5	0	0	0	0	17:17	4:14
J. Blake	RW	0	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	16:32	1:37
L. Stankoven	C	0	1	1	1	0	1	0	0	16:20	1:36
E. Robinson	LW	0	1	1	0	2	0	+1	0	12:39	0:04
M. Jankowski	LW	1	0	1	2	0	0	+2	0	10:53	0:11
T. Hall	LW	0	0	0	0	3	0	-1	2	16:04	1:38
J. Staal	C	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	15:25	1:37
J. Martinook	LW	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	2	13:07	0:07
W. Carrier	LW	0	0	0	1	4	1	+1	0	11:00	0:11
J. Chatfield	D	1	0	1	1	0	1	0	0	19:36	0:11
A. Nikishin	D	0	1	1	1	2	2	0	0	16:15	4:01
K. Miller	D	0	0	0	1	3	2	0	0	24:36	1:51
S. Walker	D	0	0	0	0	2	4	+1	0	21:50	0:00
J. Slavin	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	+1	0	20:46	0:11
M. Reilly	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	4	11:09	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
F. Andersen	19	18	1	.947	59:52	Win
B. Bussi	0	0	0	–	0:00

PIT Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
S. Crosby	C	0	1	1	2	0	0	0	0	19:13	1:55
B. Rust	RW	0	1	1	4	2	2	0	0	19:07	1:52
E. Chinakhov	RW	1	0	1	1	1	1	0	0	15:16	0:47
R. Rakell	RW	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	20:01	1:52
E. Malkin	C	0	0	0	0	1	1	-2	2	16:05	1:51
B. Kindel	C	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	15:37	0:46
C. Dewar	C	0	0	0	0	4	1	0	0	14:33	0:00
N. Acciari	C	0	0	0	3	3	2	0	0	14:07	0:00
T. Novak	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	13:53	0:43
A. Mantha	RW	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	2	11:47	0:43
J. Brazeau	RW	0	0	0	2	1	1	0	0	11:05	0:00
E. Soderblom	LW	0	0	0	1	2	1	0	2	10:02	0:00
K. Letang	D	0	0	0	0	3	2	-1	0	22:26	0:49
E. Karlsson	D	0	0	0	2	1	1	-2	2	21:47	1:49
P. Wotherspoon	D	0	0	0	0	3	0	-1	2	20:53	0:00
S. Girard	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	19:35	0:03
C. Clifton	D	0	0	0	0	3	0	+1	0	18:51	0:00
R. Graves	D	0	0	0	1	3	0	+1	2	12:45	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
S. Skinner	25	21	4	.840	56:54	Loss
A. Silovs	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

CAR

Line 1T. Hall14:26L. Stankoven14:06J. Blake13:44

Line 2J. Staal12:13J. Martinook11:22N. Ehlers11:11

Line 3S. Aho12:36S. Jarvis11:43A. Svechnikov11:13

Line 4W. Carrier10:49E. Robinson11:39M. Jankowski9:09

Pair 1S. Walker18:24K. Miller19:38

Pair 2J. Slavin17:48J. Chatfield17:01

Pair 3M. Reilly11:09A. Nikishin12:14

PIT

Line 1S. Crosby14:44R. Rakell15:24B. Rust14:45

Line 2E. Malkin12:08T. Novak11:43E. Chinakhov12:58

Line 3B. Kindel11:40J. Brazeau9:59A. Mantha10:03

Line 4N. Acciari10:06C. Dewar10:30E. Soderblom10:02

Pair 1E. Karlsson17:39P. Wotherspoon16:42

Pair 2K. Letang17:51S. Girard16:26

Pair 3C. Clifton15:04R. Graves12:41

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

BirthdayArturs Silovs PIT Turns 25 that day0 saves on 0

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	CAR 3.4, PIT 2.9	CAR 5, PIT 1
Total goals	6.3	6
Shots on goal	CAR 30.4, PIT 25.5	CAR 26, PIT 19
Win chance	CAR 57%	CAR won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
CAR S. Jarvis	2.7	4	0.80	3	30%	1
PIT B. Rust	2.4	4	0.84	1	30%	0
CAR N. Ehlers	2.4	4	0.79	2	27%	1
CAR S. Aho	2.3	3	0.91	1	31%	1
PIT E. Chinakhov	2.3	1	0.61	1	23%	1
PIT S. Crosby	2.3	2	1.02	1	32%	0
PIT R. Rakell	2.3	0	0.72	0	26%	0
CAR A. Svechnikov	2.2	5	0.73	1	26%	0
PIT E. Malkin	2.1	0	0.83	0	24%	0
CAR J. Blake	2.1	1	0.57	1	23%	0
CAR S. Walker	2.0	0	0.32	0	9%	0
PIT E. Karlsson	2.0	2	0.67	0	13%	0
CAR L. Stankoven	1.9	1	0.49	1	19%	0
CAR T. Hall	1.8	0	0.59	0	21%	0
PIT A. Mantha	1.7	0	0.68	0	24%	0
PIT B. Kindel	1.7	2	0.42	0	18%	0
PIT T. Novak	1.6	1	0.58	0	22%	0
CAR J. Slavin	1.6	1	0.33	0	8%	0
CAR K. Miller	1.6	1	0.50	0	11%	0
CAR J. Staal	1.4	0	0.45	0	18%	0
CAR J. Martinook	1.4	0	0.39	0	15%	0
PIT K. Letang	1.4	0	0.39	0	8%	0
CAR J. Chatfield	1.4	1	0.27	1	8%	1
CAR A. Nikishin	1.4	1	0.37	1	11%	0
PIT C. Dewar	1.3	0	0.34	0	14%	0
PIT J. Brazeau	1.3	2	0.38	0	16%	0
PIT N. Acciari	1.3	3	0.27	0	12%	0
CAR M. Reilly	1.3	1	0.20	0	4%	0
PIT E. Soderblom	1.1	1	0.24	0	11%	0
CAR W. Carrier	1.1	1	0.21	0	11%	0
CAR E. Robinson	1.1	0	0.24	1	11%	0
CAR M. Jankowski	0.9	2	0.28	1	13%	1
PIT S. Girard	0.8	0	0.26	0	5%	0
PIT P. Wotherspoon	0.7	0	0.26	0	3%	0
PIT R. Graves	0.7	1	0.13	0	4%	0
PIT C. Clifton	0.6	0	0.17	0	4%	0

Shots on goal: 18 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.4 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.