Game Recap: CAR 4, TBL 6, December 20, 2025

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Game Recap

CAR4

FinalSat, Dec 20, 2025Every game that night

TBL6

TBL beat CAR 6-4, and the chances backed it up: 4.24 expected goals to 1.92. J. Guentzel led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). J. Moser had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 1.0. A. Vasilevskiy stopped 18 of 22.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
CAR	3	0	1	4
TBL	0	3	3	6

1st 2:42CARE. Robinson0.08 xG
1st 4:00CARJ. BlakePP0.06 xG
1st 12:27CARB. NadeauPP0.12 xG
2nd 0:30TBLG. Goncalves0.31 xG
2nd 1:20TBLB. Point0.31 xG
2nd 16:36TBLJ. Finley0.29 xG
3rd 2:47CARA. Svechnikov0.20 xG
3rd 3:13TBLR. McDonagh0.22 xG
3rd 6:38TBLJ. Guentzel0.10 xG
3rd 19:33TBLJ. GuentzelEN0.45 xG

Team Stats

CARTBL

22Shots on goal29

1.92Expected goals4.24

50Shot attempts60

155v5 shots on goal25

2/5Power play0/3

23Hits19

15Blocked shots15

10Penalty minutes14

13Giveaways14

6Takeaways1

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

CAR 1.92 xGTBL 4.24 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

CAR22 on goal, 4 scored

TBL29 on goal, 6 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

CAR Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
N. Ehlers	LW	0	1	1	1	0	2	-3	0	19:36	5:19
J. Blake	RW	1	0	1	1	0	0	-3	0	19:25	5:28
A. Svechnikov	RW	1	0	1	2	2	0	-1	4	18:12	5:18
L. Stankoven	C	0	1	1	2	0	0	-1	0	16:22	3:06
J. Staal	C	0	1	1	0	4	1	-1	0	15:08	1:13
E. Robinson	LW	1	0	1	3	1	0	0	0	13:50	0:00
B. Nadeau	LW	1	0	1	4	4	0	-2	0	13:06	2:45
M. Jankowski	LW	0	1	1	0	1	0	+1	2	10:55	0:00
J. Kotkaniemi	C	0	1	1	0	1	0	+1	4	10:06	1:45
S. Aho	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	-3	0	21:19	5:18
T. Hall	LW	0	0	0	2	0	3	-2	0	15:52	3:08
W. Carrier	LW	0	0	0	0	3	2	0	0	9:50	0:00
S. Gostisbehere	D	0	1	1	1	0	1	-2	0	18:11	4:58
K. Miller	D	0	0	0	1	2	2	-1	0	21:28	0:20
J. Chatfield	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	-2	0	19:59	0:12
A. Nikishin	D	0	0	0	0	2	2	+1	0	19:45	3:15
S. Walker	D	0	0	0	3	2	0	-1	0	18:05	0:00
M. Reilly	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	-2	0	13:45	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
P. Kochetkov	28	23	5	.821	59:06	Loss
F. Andersen	0	0	0	–	0:00

TBL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
J. Guentzel	C	2	0	2	5	1	1	+1	0	19:19	5:26
D. James	C	0	2	2	0	0	0	+2	0	10:44	0:27
N. Kucherov	RW	0	1	1	2	0	1	+1	0	19:25	5:30
B. Point	C	1	0	1	3	0	1	0	0	18:25	4:33
Y. Gourde	C	0	1	1	2	1	1	+1	0	16:13	0:06
N. Paul	LW	0	1	1	1	2	2	0	2	12:50	0:32
P. Holmberg	RW	0	1	1	2	0	0	+1	0	12:26	0:03
G. Goncalves	C	1	0	1	1	1	1	+1	0	10:18	0:29
J. Finley	C	1	0	1	2	1	0	+2	4	8:19	0:00
A. Cirelli	C	0	0	0	1	2	1	+2	0	22:30	3:04
Z. Girgensons	C	0	0	0	1	3	0	+1	2	13:44	0:02
O. Bjorkstrand	RW	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	13:01	3:37
R. McDonagh	D	1	1	2	1	1	0	+3	0	19:34	0:09
C. D'Astous	D	0	2	2	0	1	1	+2	0	16:42	0:57
J. Moser	D	0	1	1	4	3	3	+2	0	22:55	0:00
M. Crozier	D	0	1	1	0	1	1	0	0	16:42	0:00
D. Raddysh	D	0	0	0	3	1	0	+1	2	23:06	5:05
D. Carlile	D	0	0	0	1	0	2	0	4	15:22	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
A. Vasilevskiy	22	18	4	.818	60:00	Win
J. Johansson	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

CAR

Line 1T. Hall12:44L. Stankoven13:16N. Ehlers13:23

Line 2S. Aho11:36J. Blake13:16A. Svechnikov12:00

Line 3W. Carrier9:22E. Robinson10:23J. Staal11:12

Line 4M. Jankowski9:14J. Kotkaniemi8:21B. Nadeau9:27

Pair 1J. Chatfield16:58K. Miller17:50

Pair 2S. Walker15:23A. Nikishin13:04

Pair 3M. Reilly13:34S. Gostisbehere12:22

TBL

Line 1N. Kucherov13:01B. Point13:52Y. Gourde12:30

Line 2Z. Girgensons11:20P. Holmberg12:23A. Cirelli13:44

Line 3G. Goncalves9:49D. James10:17J. Finley8:19

Line 4J. Guentzel9:27O. Bjorkstrand9:24N. Paul9:46

Pair 1D. Raddysh16:55J. Moser16:57

Pair 2M. Crozier13:41D. Carlile12:50

Pair 3R. McDonagh14:27C. D'Astous14:43

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamJake Guentzel TBL Faces CAR, his team until May 20242 G, 5 SOG
BirthdayWilliam Carrier CAR Turns 31 that day0 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	CAR 2.7, TBL 3.1	CAR 4, TBL 6
Total goals	5.7	10
Shots on goal	CAR 28.3, TBL 25.7	CAR 22, TBL 29
Win chance	TBL 57%	TBL won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
TBL N. Kucherov	3.1	2	1.53	1	35%	0
TBL J. Guentzel	2.8	5	1.07	2	38%	2
CAR A. Svechnikov	2.5	2	0.64	1	24%	1
CAR N. Ehlers	2.5	1	0.62	1	23%	0
CAR S. Aho	2.5	1	0.81	0	31%	0
TBL B. Point	2.4	3	0.98	1	37%	1
CAR S. Walker	2.2	3	0.24	0	8%	0
CAR J. Blake	2.1	1	0.51	1	21%	1
CAR L. Stankoven	2.0	2	0.38	1	16%	0
TBL O. Bjorkstrand	1.9	0	0.64	0	23%	0
TBL D. Raddysh	1.9	3	0.66	0	12%	0
CAR S. Gostisbehere	1.8	1	0.60	1	11%	0
TBL A. Cirelli	1.7	1	0.57	0	21%	0
TBL N. Paul	1.7	1	0.46	1	20%	0
TBL Y. Gourde	1.5	2	0.48	1	16%	0
CAR T. Hall	1.5	2	0.39	0	16%	0
CAR J. Staal	1.5	0	0.38	1	16%	0
CAR A. Nikishin	1.5	0	0.29	0	7%	0
CAR K. Miller	1.4	1	0.30	0	7%	0
CAR B. Nadeau	1.4	4	0.27	1	12%	1
CAR M. Reilly	1.4	0	0.16	0	4%	0
CAR J. Chatfield	1.4	1	0.20	0	7%	0
TBL Z. Girgensons	1.3	1	0.20	0	12%	0
CAR E. Robinson	1.2	3	0.26	1	12%	1
CAR W. Carrier	1.2	0	0.21	0	12%	0
TBL P. Holmberg	1.2	2	0.31	1	12%	0
TBL D. James	1.2	0	0.28	2	12%	0
TBL M. Crozier	1.2	0	0.18	1	3%	0
TBL C. D'Astous	1.2	0	0.30	2	7%	0
CAR J. Kotkaniemi	1.0	0	0.23	1	10%	0
TBL J. Moser	1.0	4	0.27	1	6%	0
CAR M. Jankowski	0.9	0	0.19	1	10%	0
TBL G. Goncalves	0.8	1	0.32	1	11%	1
TBL J. Finley	0.8	2	0.20	1	9%	1
TBL R. McDonagh	0.8	1	0.27	2	4%	1
TBL D. Carlile	0.7	1	0.15	0	5%	0

Shots on goal: 17 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.