TOR beat CAR 6-3, and the chances backed it up: 4.72 expected goals to 3.40. CAR outshot TOR 35 to 23. P. Holmberg led the way with 3 points (2 G, 1 A). A. Svechnikov had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 2.4. A. Stolarz stopped 32 of 35.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
| TOR | 4 | 0 | 2 | 6 |
- 1st 2:50TORA. Steeves0.08 xG
- 1st 3:29TORP. Holmberg0.48 xG
- 1st 6:39TORD. Kampf0.25 xG
- 1st 15:06TORJ. Tavares0.20 xG
- 3rd 12:25CARS. Gostisbehere0.08 xG
- 3rd 14:46CARA. Svechnikov0.09 xG
- 3rd 15:06CARJ. Slavin0.15 xG
- 3rd 18:37TORA. MatthewsEN0.59 xG
- 3rd 19:40TORP. HolmbergEN0.87 xG
Team Stats
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
CAR 3.40 xGTOR 4.72 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
CAR Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Svechnikov | RW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 19:14 | 3:10 |
| M. Rantanen | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 23:07 | 3:09 |
| S. Aho | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | -2 | 4 | 22:49 | 3:08 |
| J. Staal | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:41 | 0:00 |
| S. Jarvis | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | -3 | 0 | 20:44 | 3:08 |
| J. Blake | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:23 | 0:50 |
| T. Hall | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 15:07 | 0:48 |
| J. Martinook | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 15:03 | 0:00 |
| J. Kotkaniemi | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12:36 | 0:51 |
| J. Roslovic | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 10:16 | 0:48 |
| E. Robinson | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 8:20 | 0:00 |
| T. Jost | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 4:48 | 0:00 |
| S. Gostisbehere | D | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 14:57 | 1:10 |
| B. Burns | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 24:13 | 2:50 |
| J. Slavin | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 22:02 | 0:04 |
| J. Chatfield | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 19:57 | 0:00 |
| D. Orlov | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 19:20 | 0:04 |
| S. Walker | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 14:06 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P. Kochetkov | 21 | 18 | 4 | .857 | 57:17 | Loss |
| F. Andersen | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
TOR Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P. Holmberg | RW | 2 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +3 | 0 | 15:38 | 0:00 |
| W. Nylander | RW | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +3 | 0 | 19:58 | 2:07 |
| J. Tavares | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | +3 | 0 | 18:42 | 1:51 |
| A. Steeves | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 9:04 | 0:10 |
| A. Matthews | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 19:14 | 2:05 |
| D. Kampf | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 11:57 | 0:00 |
| S. Lorentz | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 9:17 | 0:00 |
| M. Marner | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19:33 | 2:14 |
| M. Knies | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 16:50 | 1:52 |
| M. Domi | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:06 | 1:54 |
| B. McMann | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 12:40 | 1:53 |
| N. Robertson | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 11:28 | 1:45 |
| C. Tanev | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | +3 | 0 | 22:22 | 0:25 |
| J. McCabe | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | +3 | 0 | 24:31 | 0:15 |
| O. Ekman-Larsson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | -1 | 0 | 20:04 | 1:53 |
| M. Rielly | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 19:41 | 1:36 |
| S. Benoit | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 16:20 | 0:00 |
| C. Timmins | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | +1 | 2 | 13:35 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Stolarz | 35 | 32 | 3 | .914 | 60:00 | Win |
| J. Woll | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Storylines That Played Out
As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | CAR 3.0, TOR 2.8 | CAR 3, TOR 6 |
| Total goals | 5.7 | 9 |
| Shots on goal | CAR 30.6, TOR 26.7 | CAR 35, TOR 23 |
| Win chance | CAR 53% | TOR won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR A. Matthews | 4.0 | 2 | 1.13 | 1 | 44% | 1 |
| TOR W. Nylander | 3.3 | 2 | 0.97 | 2 | 36% | 0 |
| TOR J. Tavares | 2.7 | 3 | 0.80 | 2 | 29% | 1 |
| CAR M. Rantanen | 2.7 | 1 | 1.03 | 1 | 35% | 0 |
| CAR S. Aho | 2.7 | 1 | 0.95 | 1 | 33% | 0 |
| CAR S. Jarvis | 2.5 | 2 | 0.80 | 0 | 30% | 0 |
| TOR B. McMann | 2.5 | 3 | 0.50 | 0 | 25% | 0 |
| CAR A. Svechnikov | 2.4 | 5 | 0.70 | 2 | 25% | 1 |
| CAR B. Burns | 2.2 | 4 | 0.42 | 1 | 9% | 0 |
| TOR M. Marner | 2.2 | 2 | 1.16 | 0 | 28% | 0 |
| CAR J. Blake | 2.0 | 3 | 0.45 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| CAR T. Hall | 1.8 | 2 | 0.51 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| TOR M. Knies | 1.8 | 1 | 0.63 | 0 | 25% | 0 |
| CAR S. Walker | 1.7 | 1 | 0.23 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| TOR M. Rielly | 1.6 | 0 | 0.52 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| CAR J. Martinook | 1.6 | 2 | 0.42 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| CAR J. Kotkaniemi | 1.5 | 1 | 0.41 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| CAR S. Gostisbehere | 1.5 | 4 | 0.49 | 2 | 9% | 1 |
| CAR J. Staal | 1.5 | 1 | 0.41 | 1 | 15% | 0 |
| TOR M. Domi | 1.5 | 1 | 0.49 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| CAR J. Slavin | 1.5 | 4 | 0.38 | 1 | 6% | 1 |
| CAR D. Orlov | 1.4 | 1 | 0.36 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| CAR E. Robinson | 1.4 | 1 | 0.33 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| TOR N. Robertson | 1.4 | 1 | 0.29 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| CAR J. Chatfield | 1.4 | 2 | 0.26 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| TOR O. Ekman-Larsson | 1.3 | 0 | 0.34 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| CAR J. Roslovic | 1.3 | 0 | 0.37 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| CAR T. Jost | 1.1 | 0 | 0.20 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| TOR J. McCabe | 1.0 | 0 | 0.29 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| TOR A. Steeves | 1.0 | 2 | 0.17 | 2 | 8% | 1 |
| TOR P. Holmberg | 1.0 | 2 | 0.25 | 3 | 10% | 2 |
| TOR D. Kampf | 0.8 | 2 | 0.20 | 1 | 8% | 1 |
| TOR S. Lorentz | 0.8 | 1 | 0.18 | 1 | 9% | 0 |
| TOR C. Timmins | 0.8 | 1 | 0.21 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| TOR C. Tanev | 0.6 | 0 | 0.23 | 1 | 3% | 0 |
| TOR S. Benoit | 0.5 | 0 | 0.07 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 21 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.